Our best bets from the Bundesliga

Bundesliga tips, best bets, predictions and previews: Matchday 17 picks


Matchday 17 is an Englische Woche, with the Bundesliga seeing a round of midweek fixtures. Tom Carnduff picks out his best bets.


Football betting tips: Bundesliga

1.5pts Borussia Dortmund to beat Mainz at 13/10 (General)

1pt RB Leipzig to score 3+ goals v Schalke at 2/1 (Unibet)

1pt Köln 4+ corners v Bayern Munich at 13/8 (bet365)

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Mainz v Borussia Dortmund

  • TV: Sky Sports Mix
  • 17:30 GMT, Wednesday

Borussia Dortmund played out a thriller on Sunday, beating Augsburg 4-3 in a result that kept them within touching distance of the top-four.

They could have scored a couple more based on the chances created, but securing victory was the main objective and one that they achieved.

The midweek round takes them to Mainz, and with 13/10 available across the board, the value is there in backing BORUSSIA DORTMUND TO WIN.

Dortmund still have their problems, but a trip to Mainz isn't as tricky as it has been in more recent times.

They were always a good value pick when playing in front of their own supporters - only Bayern and Dortmund picked up more points in home games last season.

The 2022/23 campaign has been a different story though. They've won just one of their seven home contests - only Augsburg have gained fewer points.

Dortmund's away results haven't exactly been perfect but they posted higher xG tallies in games against Köln and Mönchengladbach - two wins there would have put them second in the away standings.

Die Schwarzgelben need results during this stage of the campaign if they are to battle at the top of the table again. That includes the trip south on Wednesday night.


Schalke v RB Leipzig

  • TV: Sky Sports Mix
  • 17:30 GMT, Tuesday

RB Leipzig's return to competitive action was a largely uninspiring one. Their home contest against Bayern welcomed back the Bundesliga following two months off - with that lack of football evident as neither side could truly get a grip on the game.

They did get a point at least, and a trip to Schalke gives them the opportunity to secure their first win of 2023. Die Königsblauen are bottom of the Bundesliga table with just nine points gained from their 16 games so far.

Schalke saw a 3-0 defeat to Eintracht Frankfurt in their first game back and we can expect a similar outcome here given the contrast in quality - even with Leipzig continuing to suffer from the absence of Christopher Nkunku due to injury.

The attack shouldn't suffer given the quality they have - with Timo Werner adapting to life in Germany well following his move back in the summer - and they will see this as a chance to score.

At a best price of 2/1, there is appeal in taking LEIPZIG TO SCORE 3+ GOALS in Tuesday's early game.

Since Marco Rose took charge, Leipzig have a great record of finding the net against those at the bottom - they're not missing the opportunity to do so.

They've scored at least three in games against Augsburg, Bochum, Hertha Berlin and Hoffenheim prior to the break, posting strong underlying numbers in each.

The total of 13 goals in that quartet of contests came from 10.4 xG, which is a promising sign when we factor in how poor this Schalke defence has also been.

They've conceded 35 from a lower 26.7 xGA but that still means they're averaging 1.67 xGA per game. Bayern had two goals and 1.55 xG, Dortmund scored one from 2.28 xG while Union Berlin netted six goals from a remarkably low 0.75 xG.


Bayern Munich v Köln

  • TV: Sky Sports Mix
  • 19:30 GMT, Tuesday

Bayern Munich saw their lead cut at the top to five points following their draw with Leipzig and Eintracht Frankfurt's win over Schalke.

Union Berlin were also successful - a completely shaken up chasing pack looking to end the Bavarian club's years of dominance in Germany's top-flight.

Köln smashing seven past Werder Bremen in Saturday's late kick-off should give them plenty of confidence. It should also set this up to be a high-scoring, entertaining contest.

The visitors will have chances, and the 13/8 best price on KÖLN TO HAVE 4+ CORNERS looks a tad too big given the way this may play out.

Steffen Baumgart's side have been regulars in the corner count this season - averaging 5.69 taken per game with the number sitting at 5.50 in away matches.

Bayern have been conceding them too. They have an average of 3.81 conceded per outing - with their opponent seeing at least four in each of their last four competitive home games.

Köln have taken at least four corners in 12 of their 13 away games in all competitions this season, with the one game that fell short seeing three.


Bundesliga: Midweek best bets

  • 1.5pts Borussia Dortmund to beat Mainz at 13/10 (General)
  • 1pt RB Leipzig to score 3+ goals v Schalke at 2/1 (Unibet)
  • 1pt Köln 4+ corners v Bayern Munich at 13/8 (bet365)

Odds correct at 0830 GMT (23/01/23)


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