Tom Carnduff looks at Matchday 4 of the Bundesliga season, with Saturday's late kick-off providing value in the stats markets.
Football betting tips: Bundesliga
1.5pts Joshua Kimmich to have 2+ total shots in Bayern v Mönchengladbach at Evens (Sky Bet)
1.5pts Benjamin Pavard to have 2+ total shots in Bayern v Mönchengladbach at 21/10 (BetVictor, Ladbrokes)
Bayern Munich v Borussia Mönchengladbach
- 17:30 BST, Saturday
- TV: Sky Sports Football
Bayern Munich's start to the season has been near perfect.
Julian Nagelsmann's side have scored 15 goals across their opening three games - and had they not conceded against Eintracht Frankfurt it would have been three clean sheets.
It's no surprise to see them go off as 1/7 favourites against Borussia Mönchengladbach, although it's tough to find any appeal in going into the outright market when the prices are heavily favoured one way.
Instead, the stats open up the value and the shots lines for the home team look a bit too generous when it comes to certain players.
Mönchengladbach's shots against per game average is helped by the fact they limited to Hoffenheim to just two in their opening game. In the two games since, it's been a total of 29.
It's not surprise to see Bayern going at an average of 23 shots per game, with 24 in their home opener against Wolfsburg. The lowest line is set at 21+ with Sky Bet - that coming in at a price of 4/6.
At evens, it's worth taking JOSHUA KIMMICH TO HAVE 2+ TOTAL SHOTS in the match. These are just shots, they don't have to be on target.
The centre midfielder has had at least two shots in each of his three games so far. Crucially, he played the full 90 minutes in each so we know he'll have the time to register as many as possible.
Bayern are 6-0 up. Joshua Kimmich has had a couple of shots. https://t.co/3AnQ17J6wd pic.twitter.com/IA6QG0LB8C
— Tom Carnduff (@TomC_22) August 21, 2022
His attacking output is also demonstrated in the fact he has two assists across his last two, with a goal coming in the convincing opening day victory.
Staying with the same market, and BENJAMIN PAVARD TO HAVE 2+ TOTAL SHOTS also looks a great value play with odds of 21/10 available.
The right-back has achieved this in each of his last two outings - the latter coming despite being subbed off in the 67th minute of the 7-0 thrashing of Bochum.
Hertha's right side combined for seven shots in the 1-0 defeat to Mönchengladbach, while Bayern's right side went for six shots v Bochum, five against Wolfsburg and four in Frankfurt.
Bayern should win the game as expected, so the value comes in backing KIMMICH and PAVARD to contribute in attack.
Bundesliga: Weekend best bets
- 1.5pts Joshua Kimmich to have 2+ total shots in Bayern v Mönchengladbach at Evens (Sky Bet)
- 1.5pts Benjamin Pavard to have 2+ total shots in Bayern v Mönchengladbach at 21/10 (BetVictor, Ladbrokes)
Odds correct at 1150 BST (25/08/22)
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