Football betting tips: Premier League
1.5pts Pervis Estupinan to have 1+ shots on target at 11/4 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
Brighton have only lost two of their last 16 games, don’t let the six draws over that period shroud just how good of a job Roberto De Zerbi is doing.
His side are eighth in the Premier League, three points off sixth, they are in the hat for the fourth round of the FA Cup and through to the last 16 of the Europa League.
Wolves will head to the south coast in a buoyant mood having set up a Black Country derby with West Brom in midweek. The Wanderers needed extra time but edged past Brentford in a five goal thriller and extended their run of five games without defeat.
Gary O’Neil’s side have proved to be a tough nut to crack but the majority of their league defeats have come on the road this season which goes a little way to explaining their big price on Monday.
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Roberto De Zerbi praised PERVIS ESTUPINAN’s versatility recently. A left back by trade, the suspension of Lewis Dunk forced the Ecuadorian a little further back the pitch to earn Brighton’s first league clean sheet of the campaign against West Ham.
Though his all round play is outstanding, it is Estupinan’s offensive output that is of interest here.
He has scored three goals in 10 starts for the Seagulls this term and assisted a further three, most recently finding the net Brighton’s 4-2 win over Stoke in the FA Cup.
Another STUNNER from @PervisEstupinan is our @MonsterEnergy Moment of the Match! 💫 pic.twitter.com/DE9OXDpBIh
— Brighton & Hove Albion (@OfficialBHAFC) January 7, 2024
An xG of 0.9 suggests his goalscoring form is not sustainable but Estupinan is shooting often enough. He has found the target seven times and registered at least one in half of his starts this term.
At 11/4 with Betfair and Paddy Power, backing him to have 1+ SHOTS ON TARGET appeals on Monday.
BuildABet @ 40/1
- Both teams to score
- Pervis Estupinan 2+ shots on target
- Joao Pedro to score anytime
Brighton have scored the sixth most goals in the Premier League, conceded the seventh most and have only kept one clean sheet.
Joao Pedro tops their goalscoring charts with 15 in all competitions, scoring half of his sides last 10.
Team news
Simon Adingra and Kaoru Mitom are unavailable for Brighton due to international call-ups. Solly March, Joel Veltman, Julio Enciso and Ansu Fati are all injured.
Lewis Dunk missed the draw with West Ham due to suspension but is back available and should start in central defence.
Wolves top goalscorer Hwang Hee-Chan (10) is at the Asian Cup and Joao Gomes is suspended.
Hugo Bueno and Matt Doherty are competing for the left wing back spot but I suspect O’Neil will go with the latter here.
Predicted line-ups
Brighton: Steele; Hinshelwood, Hecke, Dunk, Estupinan; Groß, Gilmour, Milner; Buonanotte; Welbeck, Pedro.
Wolves: Sa; Semedo, Kilman, Dawson, Toti, Doherty; Bellegarde, Doyle; Neto, Sarrabia; Cunha.
Match facts
- Brighton have won their last four league games against Wolves, as many as they had in their previous 19 combined (D10 L5).
- Wolves have lost their last four Premier League games against Brighton, conceding at least three goals each time (16 in total). Only twice before have they lost 5+ consecutive league games against an opponent while shipping 3+ goals each time – eight against Manchester City (1902-1909) and five against Blackpool (1927-1929).
- This is Wolves’ first league game of 2024 – it’s the third latest a team has played their first Premier League game of a calendar year (excl. promoted sides), after Portsmouth in 2010 (26th January) and Manchester United in 2000 (24th January).
- Brighton drew 0-0 with West Ham in their last Premier League match, keeping their first league clean sheet of the season. They last kept consecutive league shutouts in April/May 2023, one of which was a 6-0 home win over Wolves.
- Wolves have won each of their last three Premier League games, last winning four successive top-flight matches back in January 1972 under Bill McGarry.
- Brighton manager Roberto De Zerbi has won all three of his Premier League meetings with Wolves by an aggregate scoreline of 13-3. Meanwhile, Wolves manager Gary O'Neil has lost all three of his Premier League encounters with Brighton, with his sides conceding seven goals and scoring one in reply.
- Brighton forward Danny Welbeck has six goal involvements in eight Premier League starts against Wolves (4 goals, 2 assists), and was one of three players to net a brace in this exact fixture last term as the Seagulls ran out 6-0 winners (also two goals for Pascal Groß and Deniz Undav).
- All eight of Brighton’s penalty goals in all competitions this season have been scored by João Pedro, with 53% of his goals this term coming from the spot (8/15). The Brazilian has scored more penalty goals than any other Premier League player in all competitions this season.
- Hwang Hee-Chan has been directly involved in 43.3% of Wolves’ 30 Premier League goals this term (10 goals, 3 assists), with only Mohamed Salah (51.2%) and Dominic Solanke (46.4%) either scoring or assisting a higher share of their side’s goals.
- Matheus Cunha has been directly involved in eight goals across his last nine Premier League appearances for Wolves (4 goals, 4 assists), having registered just five goal contributions in his first 28 games for the club in the competition (4 goals, 1 assist).
Odds correct 1500 GMT (19/01/24)
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