Football betting tips: Europa League
1.5pts Brighton to score 3+ goals at Evens (Betfair, Paddy Power)
Brighton's European presence isn't one that should just simply make up the numbers.
The Seagulls are soaring on a significant upwards trajectory and there will be a feeling around the club that they have every chance of competing for the Europa League trophy.
It's outlined in their first group game delivering odds of 1/6 to win given they are sitting at -2 on the Asian Handicap at the time of writing. Not only are they fancied to win but to win well - an ideal start and near vital for their chances of progression.
Bayer Leverkusen (home to Hacken) and West Ham (home to TSC) are the only sides playing Thursday in this competition with a bigger handicap than the one given to Brighton - the money is backing them to win and it's hard to disagree.
What are the best bets?
As much as I love watching Brighton play - frankly, one of the best teams in the country at the moment - their ability to rotate does cause issues when it comes to getting involved in their matches.
It's also causing some problems with my fantasy football team, although I'll forgive Roberto De Zerbi this time as Joao Pedro came off the bench to score in the 3-1 victory over Manchester United.
That comes from the number of good options available to the Seagulls boss though. This is particularly true in the attacking area of the pitch.
With a best price of Evens available, taking BRIGHTON TO SCORE 3+ GOALS provides appeal.
This is something they've achieved in four of their five Premier League outings so far, although they could have done that against West Ham with 26 shots (of which ten were on target) only leading to the one goal.
Goalscorer prices look decent on the forwards and that's worth considering when the team news is out, but with it unclear just who actually starts for the hosts, siding with them finding the net a few times is a safer bet.
BuildABet @ 21/1
- Brighton to score 3+ goals
- Lewis Dunk to score anytime
- Brighton 7+ corners
CLICK HERE to back with Sky Bet
It's no surprise that Brighton are in focus here but they should be on the front foot throughout.
Goals are fancied, as are corners given the fact that we're expecting the hosts to have the majority of chances.
A number of candidates could find the net but with rotation in the forward positions possible, siding with Lewis Dunk bumps up the value. The defender has posted at least a shot in three of his five outings so far, with two coming against Luton and four against West Ham.
Score prediction: Brighton 3-0 AEK Athens (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Team news
De Zerbi will be without Julio Enciso who remains sidelined with a long-term injury, while winger Solly March and full-back Pervis Estupiñán are doubts.
Ansu Fati could be given his first start after making his debut from the bench in the win at Old Trafford. Evan Ferguson should lead the line if he is fit enough to do so.
Paolo Fernandes, Mijat Gacinovic and Rodolfo Pizarro are among the players missing for the Greek side; Domagoj Vida will be assessed after being forced off at half-time of their draw with Olympiacos.
Predicted line-ups
Brighton: Steele; Milner, Webster, Dunk, Lamptey; Gross, Dahoud; Fati, Pedro, Mitoma; Ferguson
AEK Athens: Stankovic; Rota, Mitoglou, Moukoudi, Mohammadi; Eliasson, Szymanski, Zuber; Jonsson; Araujo, Ponce
Match facts
- This is Brighton and Hove Albion’s first ever game in European competition. They are the first debutant English team in major European competition since Wigan Athletic in 2013-14, with none of the last six losing their first game (W4 D2) since a 1-0 defeat for Blackburn Rovers in 1994-95 against Trelleborgs FF in the UEFA Cup.
- AEK Athens have lost their last six major European games against English opponents, conceding 16 goals and scoring just three. Their last win against an English team was in 1977 against QPR, a 3-0 win in the UEFA Cup.
- Brighton manager Roberto De Zerbi has managed in major European competition before, taking charge of six UEFA Champions League group stage games in 2021-22 with Shakhtar Donetsk, failing to win any (D2 L4).
- AEK Athens have won just one of their last 19 matches in major European competition (D7 L11), losing 10 of their last 11. Their one win was away at Zorya Luhansk in the 2020-21 UEFA Europa League, a 4-1 win.
- Brighton’s James Milner has made 116 appearances in major European competition with Newcastle United, Aston Villa, Man City and Liverpool. It’s the fifth most of any Englishman in history, behind Jamie Carragher (130), Paul Scholes (128), Frank Lampard (122) and John Terry (121). He could become the second Englishman to appear for five different clubs in such competitions, after Jonathan Woodgate (Leeds, Newcastle, Real Madrid, Spurs, Stoke), and the first player ever to play for five different English teams.
Odds correct at 1200 BST (20/09/23)
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