Brighton v Watford tips: Premier League best bets and preview
Data-darlings Brighton welcome Watford in their first home game of the season, and Jake Osgathorpe is keen to get the hosts onside.
Football betting tips: Premier League
2pts Brighton to win and Under 3.5 Goals at 5/4 (William Hill)
Both Brighton and Watford won on opening weekend, meaning they both have something to build upon heading into gameweek two.
The Seagulls were the data darlings of the 20/21 season, and if their process remains at a similar level, they can expect a much more comfortable ride this term, and maybe even a top half finish.
Kick-off time: 17:30 BST, Saturday
TV Channel: Sky Sports Premier League
Brighton 7/10 | Draw 13/5 | Watford 17/4
It was mentioned numerous times last season that Brighton were in a ‘false’ position, with Graham Potter’s side unfortunate to finish down in 16th, occupying 5th spot in Infogol’s xG table.
According to expected goals against (xGA), only Manchester City (0.87 per game) and Chelsea (0.89) were better defensively than Brighton (1.08) last term.
They were even better than that when isolating just home games. No team had a better defensive process at home than Brighton (0.86 xGA per home game).
In fact, despite winning only four times at the Amex last season, Brighton again ranked third behind City and Chelsea in key metrics: expected goal difference (xGD) and expected points (xP).
They have kept the same coach, and 99% of their squad, so there is no reason why Brighton can’t get close to these dizzying figures yet again.
Potter had to use his substitutes to make a difference at Turf Moor last weekend, but his side created plenty of opportunities (1.76 xGF), only looking vulnerable from set-pieces (0.49 open-play xGA).
They will be excited to get back in front of a home crowd, and to face a newly promoted side.
While Watford did win on opening day against Aston Villa, they were extremely fortunate to score three times from the chances they created (1.22 xGF).
Deflections and good finishing helped them to a victory that mainly came about on the counterattack, but Brighton are much better at snuffing out those transitions than a newly-formed Villa who were missing key midfielders.
Xisco Munoz’s side averaged just 1.31 non-penalty xGF per game in the Championship last term, and shouldn’t cause a stubborn Brighton defence too many issues.
BRIGHTON TO WIN AND UNDER 3.5 GOALS therefore appeals at a best price of 5/4, with the hosts expected to win in a low-scoring game.
Brighton to win to nil did tempt me, but a win and under 3.5 is a safer bet in which we get a 2-1 home win onside as well as 1-0, 2-0 and 3-0.
Brighton v Watford best bets and score prediction
- 2pts Brighton to win and Under 3.5 Goals at 5/4 (William Hill)
Score prediction: Brighton 2-0 Watford (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Odds correct at 15:45 BST (19/08/21)
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