Brighton welcome Leicester in the Premier League on Sunday and Tom Carnduff has found two best bets to back.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Brighton to beat Leicester at 9/5 (Betfair)
1pt Ryan Bertrand to have 4+ tackles at 11/2 (Sky Bet)
There's something weirdly enjoyable about a low xG Brighton now winning football matches when the high xG Brighton could not. Finally some fortune? Graham Potter's men sit sixth in the table but should be 11th based on performance - it's the opposite of the 2020/21 campaign where they should have been among the European places.
In Leicester, they face a team whose season so far has not been the best. They are ninth but should be 19th based on expected goals - they also come into this one after throwing away a 2-0 lead to draw 2-2 with Napoli in the Europa League on Thursday.
We can expect a tight game though with a single goal likely to do it if either side is to win. Just one of Brighton's five games this season have gone Over 2.5 Goals, while the Infogol model makes it just a 36% chance that there are three or more in the contest. BTTS - No sitting on 57% also highlights the small chance of a goal-filled contest.
Kick-off time: 14:00 BST, Sunday
Brighton 13/8 | Draw 11/5 | Leicester 17/10
Leicester's form isn't exactly a concern but performances are and it doesn't appear sustainable in the long term unless they improve - it could lead to a top-half battle rather than for a spot in the top-four.
In Brighton, they also face a team who know that they can't ride the luck for much longer and need to start putting in the attacking performances that caught the eye last season. The fact that the odds are all over the place with various bookmakers shows that they just can't call this game.
You can get 13/8 on both teams, alongside 9/5. If you shop around, you will be able to get the same odds across the outcomes but it does create value if you're willing to call it either way.
Taking the 9/5 with a couple of bookmakers, the best outright option looks to be in BRIGHTON TO WIN. Leicester's showings are concerning and a disappointing outcome just days prior won't help - it also means that the home side have had extra rest.
Brighton lost the xG battle but beat Brentford last time out - it was a low event game though with the expected goals scoreline at 0.48 - 0.17. The 2-0 win at Watford was right while they narrowly lost the xG against Burnley - although you couldn't classify it as an unfair result.
Delving into the stats bets and a personal favourite market - the tackles - provides an appealing 11/2 on RYAN BERTRAND TO HAVE 4+ TACKLES across the 90 minutes. He achieved that last time out against Manchester City.
It's hardly a surprise to see the left-back hit the high tackle numbers given his season averages. His entire career has seen him go above 1.0 tackles per game per campaign and the numbers have been high in the most recent years.
He finished with 2.1 tackles across 29 appearances for Southampton in 2020/21 with 1.5 in 2019/20. After the 2018/19 campaign, he finished with a 1.9 tackles per game average.
If Bertrand can hit the three or four tackles margin on a regular basis during the opening exchanges of the season, the tackles line prices will crash and the 11/2 will be available for the five or six marker.
Brighton v Leicester best bets and score prediction
- 1pt Brighton to beat Leicester at 9/5 (Betfair)
- 1pt Ryan Bertrand to have 4+ tackles at 11/2 (Sky Bet)
Score prediction: Brighton 1-0 Leicester (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Odds correct at 1130 BST (17/09/21)
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