Football betting tips: Conference League
6pts Brighton to win the Conference League at 11/4 (General)
The Europa Conference League gets underway this week and the outright field is led by Premier League side BRIGHTON, with the Seagulls a best price of 11/4 TO WIN THE CONFERENCE LEAGUE this season.
That may seem skinny for a knockout tournament spanning eight months, but it’s a cracking price in my book due to five key factors.
Firstly, Premier League teams have been dominant in Europe’s tertiary competition over the last four seasons, despite being allowed only a single entrant.
The English top flight sides have lifted the trophy in three of the last four campaigns, with Aston Villa the only side to fail to do so in 23/24 when beaten in the semi-finals by eventual winners Olympiacos. The Villans were hindered by being in the thick of a top four challenge with a shallow squad.
West Ham, Chelsea and Crystal Palace have all been victorious, all as pre-tournament favourites, and that was also the case in the inaugural season when Jose Mourinho’s Roma reigned supreme.
So that’s three Prem winners from the last four, and four pre-tournament favourites winning the last five. Two ticks for Brighton.
Secondly, Fabian Hurzeler's side have started the season incredibly well, looking like a legitimate top four Premier League team. They sit third in the table as one of only three teams to have won four or more of their opening six matches.
They've beaten Arsenal handsomely in that time, and beat Manchester United at Old Trafford in the Carabao Cup despite going 2-0 down and fielding a rotated team.
Which brings us onto the third factor; their squad depth. Tony Bloom and co. have amassed a remarkably deep squad full of quality, so much so that no one remembers when players are out injured.
It feels as though the 'starting' players in every position are at the same level or only slightly better than their 'back-ups' meaning heavy rotation or injuries don't slow the well-oiled Seagull machine down.
Don't believe me? Well, they've started the season extremely well despite being without their first choice front four. All of Georginio Rutter, Kaoru Mitoma, Yankuba Minteh and Jack Hinshelwood have barely kicked a ball this season, missing major time through injuries, yet their 'back-ups' have been phenomenal.
That's the sign of a proper team, and one that can fight on multiple fronts, especially at this level - no disrespect to the great Conference League.
A fourth factor is that the prospect of playing European football isn't new to Brighton, with the club having experienced a run in the Europa League in 23/24. While the coaching and playing staff may be different from that season, the CLUB will have learned a lot from that campaign which is key given the way the Seagulls are run and how they operate.
Finally, the field in this season's Conference League looks very weak. Monaco were the closest to making the staking plan at 7/1 as third favourites, with them the most likely winners of the competition outside of Brighton in my opinion with a good team and a very good manager in the dugout.
Former Atletico Madrid and Chelsea left-back Felipe Luis is at the helm after a remarkably successful stint in his native Brazil as manager of Flamengo, winning a league and Copa Libertadores double. They have also started the season very well (W4 D2) including a win over PSG at the Parc des Princes, but don't quite have the squad depth of Brighton to fight on multiple fronts in my mind.
Going down the list of other favourites, and being very cynical; Atalanta's (11/2) data so far this season under Maurizio Sarri has been miserable and they look easy to oppose, last season's Europa League runners-up Freiburg (7/1) could be dangerous but were pumped in last year's final by Premier League side Aston Villa, Ajax (10/1) are no longer the Dutch powerhouse they once were having failed to win the Eredivisie for four season, Braga (14/1) were semi-finalists in the UEL last season but haven't improved and then come Danish sides Midtjylland and Copenhagen (20/1 and 25/1) before Spanish entrant Getafe (33/1).
The field gets very weak, very quickly. It really is hard, in my opinion to see a winner from outside of Brighton. The only thing that could scupper them could be the fact they are in the race for Champions League football, but I think they have the squad to breeze through this competition.
For those wanting interesting runners at big prices that probably won't win the thing, Trabzonspor at 66s could outrun their odds. Now led by Mohamed Salah they have shown signs of being dangerous, notably when dismantling Galatasaray 4-0 before the international break.
And, sticking with the Tony Bloom theme, Hearts could surprise a few at 150/1 having steadied their early season wobbly ship. But the overall message here is to stick with the favourites.
Odds correct at 12:20 BST (14/10/26)
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