Football betting tips: Premier League
2pts Liverpool to win and both teams to score at 9/5 (Betfair, Boylesports)
Brentford have made a tumultuous start to 2024. Knocked out of the FA Cup, followed by victories over Nottingham Forest and Wolves were sandwiched between defeats against Tottenham and Manchester City.
Three of their six games this year have finished 3-2 and both teams have scored in all but one. Unsurprisingly, this goal glut coincides with the return of Ivan Toney.
Thomas Frank’s side are victim to a tough schedule, only two wins in their last 11 has seen them slide towards the relegation zone. With Liverpool, Manchester City and Arsenal all to play before the international break, things could look very bleak for the Bees come March.
Their next opponents Liverpool have a chance to move five points clear on Saturday afternoon.
Victory in the big smoke would put real daylight between them and the chasing pack at the top of the Premier League with Arsenal and Manchester City not in action until later in the day.
What are the best bets?
The odds suggest this game is Liverpool’s to lose and it’s hard to disagree. The Reds have only lost one of their last 13 games in all competitions, victories in the domestic cup competitions over that period have kept hopes of a quadruple alive.
Liverpool’s defence is a bit more fragile than their goals against record suggests.
The Reds have conceded 23 goals this season, only Arsenal (22) have conceded fewer but Jurgen Klopp’s side have not kept a clean sheet in five games as Norwich (twice), Fulham and Burnley have all netted against them in that period.
They have shipped the majority of the league goals on the road. In 12 away games their only three clean sheets have come at Bramall Lane, Bournemouth and Turf Moor.
So, whilst they have enough firepower to beat Brentford, siding with a LIVERPOOL WIN AND BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE appeals.
BuildABet @ 15/1
- Liverpool to win
- Ivan Toney to score anytime
- Diogo Jota to have 4+ shots
Toney has hit the ground running with three goals in four games. Racking up 10 shots in those games and playing every minute, he could threaten Liverpool. Diogo Jota has had eight shots in Liverpool’s last three games, netting twice.
Team news
Brentford announced the signing of Igor Thiago from Club Brugge on Wednesday, the Brazilian frontman will remain at the Belgian side until the summer though.
Yoane Wissa returned from the Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON) and could return to the matchday squad this weekend. Frank Onyeka is also back in England after Nigeria’s loss in the final but is unlikely to start.
Neal Maupay will partner Toney upfront, the pair have combined to score six of the Bees last eight goals.
Time for today's session 💪 pic.twitter.com/XdEOmoCDf4
— Liverpool FC (@LFC) February 13, 2024
Liverpool received a huge boost as Mohamed Salah returned to training this week. The Egyptian returned from AFCON early after picking up a hamstring injury but may not be rushed straight into the XI.
Trent Alexander-Arnold and Andy Robertson both started Liverpool’s last game, the former was subbed off at half time.
Ibrahima Konate, Conor Bradley, Alisson Becker and Joe Gomez have all suffered injuries in training and may return to the fold here having missed the win over Burnley.
Predicted line-ups
Brentford: Flekken; Collins, Pinnock, Mee; Roerslev, Jensen, Norgaard, Janelt, Reguilon; Maupay, Toney
Liverpool: Alisson; Bradley, Konate, van Dijk, Gomez; Elliot, Mac Allister, Jones; Jota, Nunez, Diaz
Match facts
- The home side has never lost a Premier League meeting between Brentford and Liverpool (W4 D1), with the Bees winning this exact fixture 3-1 last season.
- Liverpool have both scored and conceded in all seven of their away league games against Brentford. They lost 3-1 last season but have never lost consecutive such visits to the Bees before.
- Brentford have lost four of their last six home Premier League matches, as many as they had in their previous 30 such home games combined (W15 D11 L4).
- Liverpool have 15 more points at this stage of their Premier League season (54) than they had after 24 games last season (39). On three of the last four occasions in the top-flight they’ve had 54+ points after 24 games, they have finished 2nd (1990-91, 2018-19 & 2021-22); the other was in 2019-20, when they had 70and won the league.
- Brentford have lost their last two home Premier League matches after scoring the first goal (1-2 vs Aston Villa, 1-3 vs Man City); they had only lost one of their first 25 home games when scoring first in the competition beforehand (W17 D7).
- Liverpool have won just two of their last eight away Premier League games in London (D3 L3) – indeed, both of their league defeats this season have come in the capital (vs Spurs in September and Arsenal in February).
- As of the night before this game (February 16th), Liverpool will have spent every night since Boxing Day on top of the Premier League (53 nights in a row); that’s exactly as many nights as they’d spent top of the table from the start of the 2020-21 campaign up to Christmas 2023.
- Since Ivan Toney’s first Premier League appearance this season on January 20th, only three players have more goals in the division than he does (3 in 4 games) Liverpool are, however, one of the four teams he has faced without scoring against in the competition (3 games, 7 shots, 1 shot on target).
- Brentford’s Neal Maupay has been directly involved in exactly one goal in each of his six home Premier League starts for Brentford (4 goals, 2 assists). In Premier League history, only two players have scored or assisted in their first seven home starts for a club: Alan Shearer for Newcastle (first 15, 1996-97) and Álvaro Negredo for Man City (first 7, 2013).
- Liverpool’s Diogo Jota has scored nine Premier League goals this season, and is looking to hit double figures in a single campaign for just a second time in the competition (15 in 2021-22). The Portuguese forward has scored five goals in his last six league matches, and scored in his only previous appearance at the Brentford Community Stadium in the top-flight (September 2021).
Odds correct 1230 GMT (15/02/24)
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