Promoted pair Brentford and Watford go head to head in the Premier League on Friday night. Michael Beardmore bids to follow up 11/4 and 14/5 winners the past two Fridays with two best bets.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Brentford to score in both halves at 23/10 (Unibet)
1pt Emmanuel Dennis to score anytime at 7/2 (Sky Bet)
Approaching the campaign’s halfway point, promoted pair Brentford and Watford would probably bite your hand off if you offered them their current positions of 13th and 17th come the season’s end.
The Bees have certainly adapted to Premier League slightly better than their cousins in the insect nickname world, with the Hornets’ record of W4 D1 L10 showing how truly hit-and-miss they are.
When they do sting you, though, it’s quick, fast and painful – as Manchester United and Everton will attest to in recent weeks.
Nonetheless, Infogol’s Expected Goals metrics suggest Watford are exactly where they should be in the table while Brentford’s performances, however, merit a position in the top half.
Kick-off time: 20:00 GMT, Friday
TV channel: Sky Sports Main Event
Brentford 11/10 | Draw 12/5 | Watford 5/2
You can get a shade over Evens on the hosts here but the trouble is they are missing two of their most prominent attacking threats, Ivan Toney and Sergi Canos, to Covid and suspension respectively.
With that in mind, if we are going to have a flutter based on the Bees going forward – and we are, because Watford have precisely zero clean sheets this season – there’s better value price-wise in goals than the result.
Brentford are far less reliant on Toney than they were in their Championship promotion-winning season – he only has four of the 19 they have netted thus far and they managed to score twice without him at Leeds last weekend.
Also, only Liverpool, Arsenal, Manchester City and Chelsea have a higher expected goals for (xGF) per home game figure than Brentford’s 1.81 – while Watford give up 1.56 expected goals against (xGA) per game on average away.
Watford have played eight games since Claudio Ranieri took over and they have conceded in both halves in five of those matches.
Toney might be absent but the Bees proved at Leeds they can cope without him and Watford’s porous defensive record means the 23/10 on BRENTFORD TO SCORE IN BOTH HALVES looks the value punt here.
The Hornets have, however, looked more of an attacking force since Ranieri took the reins – 13 goals in eight games compared to seven in seven under predecessor Xisco Munoz.
Their xG process has also improved to 1.65 xGF per game from a powderpuff 1.00.
Arguably the man central to that improvement has been Emmanuel Dennis – the exciting Nigerian is bossing Watford’s attacking statistics with most shots (29), shots on target (15, at an average of 1.23 per match) and goals (6).
With four goals in his past six appearances, he has become Watford’s go-to guy, particularly since the injury to Ismaila Sarr so the 7/2 Sky Bet boost on EMMANUEL DENNIS TO SCORE ANYTIME is definitely the best bet from a Hornets perspective (16/5 best price elsewhere).
He also has five assists this term and is 11/2 in that market - by all means have a play on both but after his recent scoring run I'm more inclined to back him to net one than set one up.
Brentford v Watford score prediction and best bets
- Brentford to score in both halves at 23/10 (Unibet)
- Emmanuel Dennis to score anytime at 7/2 (Sky Bet)
Score prediction: Brentford 2-1 Watford (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Odds correct 1345 GMT (08/12/21)
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