- Tom Carnduff's 25/26 tipping record: P/L: +24.39pts | ROI: 29% | Staked: 83.5pts | Returned: 107.89pts
Football betting tips: EFL on Boxing Day
Birmingham vs Derby - 12:30
1pt Tomoki Iwata to score anytime at 11/1 (General)
EFL - 15:00 kick-offs
1pt Cheltenham to beat Shrewsbury at 15/8 (Betfred)
1pt Ashley Fletcher to score anytime in Blackpool vs Doncaster at 2/1 (General)
1pt Over 2.5 goals in Leicester vs Watford, Peterborough vs Leyton Orient, Chesterfield vs Notts County & MK Dons vs Swindon at 9.71/1 (Betfred)
1pt Over 9.5 corners in Leicester vs Watford, Sheffield Wednesday vs Hull, Bradford vs Wigan, Chesterfield vs Notts County & Grimsby vs Oldham at 13.92/1 (bet365)
Wrexham vs Sheffield United - 17:30
2pts Over 2.5 goals at evens (General)
Now I thought I was without my regular Friday column given the Bundesliga's winter break.
Germany's top-flight takes Christmas off, alongside the couple of weeks after it. It's the complete opposite end of the scale to what we're used to in England.
But then Boxing Day falls on a Friday this year and I had some fancies across the bumper EFL schedule. I could have put them in a best bets column but I thought 'eh, why not do a one-off special instead?'.
So here it is, armed with a packed list of Football League fixtures and a Photoshop licence, I wanted to make the most of the best footballing day on the calendar.
A number of games are included and it's worth noting that they are all televised through Sky Sports+ too. Let's get into it.
Birmingham vs Derby
- Kick-off: Friday, 12:30 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports Main Event
- Live odds, form and stats
A game in which Birmingham boss Chris Davies needs a win to alleviate some of the pressure currently on him.
The big-spending Blues sit 14th in the Sky Bet Championship table at Christmas and have fallen short of the expected promotion charge this squad is capable of.
Funds were spent in League One to build a promotion-contending outfit in the second tier - they added to it with real quality in the most recent summer window too.
Birmingham have been strong at home at least. They've been beaten just once in front of their own supporters - that being to Hull in mid-October - with three of those games seeing them score four times.
Against an average Derby outfit, I'd expect them to see a few chances and the 11/1 on TOMOKI IWATA TO SCORE ANYTIME is certainly interesting.
Switching between central midfield and right-back, Iwata has been featuring in the latter position more often recently. That has impacted his overall shots output.
He's returned two or more in six of his previous seven, all of which came as a right-back. When out wide, he seemingly has more licence to get forward and join the attack.
The positive is that he should be continuing in that role given that Bright Osayi-Samuel is with the Nigeria squad at AFCON and Ethan Laird is sidelined through injury.
A number of bookmakers are offering 9s and above on this pick and they are all fine prices with the 5/2 for a shot on target also worth a look if you want the 'safety net' of an effort not having to find the net.
Over 2.5 goals accumulator
- Kick-off: Friday, 15:00 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports+
There are a number of games which appeal in the goals markets but rather than take them as singles, I've put them together for a fourfold coming in at above 9/1.
One of those comes from the Championship with LEICESTER vs WATFORD standing out. The Foxes are a side so unpredictable it makes them an attractive option in this area.
Over 2.5 has been a winner in each of Leicester's last eight contests, while the same can be said for seven of Watford's previous 12, although BTTS has landed in ten.
Into League One with the solo pick there being PETERBOROUGH vs LEYTON ORIENT - it was a surprise to see a Luke Williams side play out a 1-0er in their last contest.
It has actually happened a couple of times now but Peterborough have ranked as one of the division's best attacking sides since the managerial switch - over 2.5 coming in five of their seven league games under Williams.
Another game of significance takes place in League Two as it's MK DONS vs SWINDON. The visitors sit second while Milton Keynes occupy fifth spot.
These two are joint-top when it comes to games which have seen over 2.5 this season. Both have delivered it in 14 of their 21 outings, with it also winning in five of Swindon's six games against those eighth or higher.
Finally, we'll round off with the game which gets the Sky Sports Main Event treatment. CHESTERFIELD vs NOTTS COUNTY has been an entertaining fixture in recent years.
Six of Chesterfield's ten home league games have gone overs and they've only failed to score in one of their 21 outings (the 1-0 away defeat at Walsall in September). County, meanwhile, have struck in 19 of their 21 with over 2.5 coming in four of their five games against top-seven sides.
Most bookies go 8s and higher on this fourfold which will certainly keep me interested across the 3pm slate.
Over 9.5 corners accumulator
- Kick-off: Friday, 15:00 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports+
In similar fashion to the goals accumulator, there are a few fixtures which jump out as having the potential for high corner totals on Friday.
Combining these five matches to go over 9.5 pretty much gets you 14/1 and that's far more appealing than the odds-on prices available individually.
We'll start with LEICESTER vs WATFORD in the Championship which, as explained above, is expected to see action at both ends.
The Foxes have seen this as a winner in 55% of their games this season with that figure increasing to 70% when playing in front of their own supporters. For Watford, it's landed in four of their previous five.
Elsewhere, SHEFFIELD WEDNESDAY vs HULL is fancied to go in a similar way to plenty of other Hillsborough fixtures this season but that could well mean corners awarded.
Backing this selection has won in 62% of the Owls' outings so far with it also coming in a whopping 80% of Hull's games on the road. The expected game state should favour this pick.
The solo game included from League One is BRADFORD vs WIGAN and it's mainly down to the showings of the visitors. Ryan Lowe's men have had 70% of their league games this season seeing the corner count striking double figures.
It's hardly a surprise when they sit third for crosses attempted in the third tier. Bradford are eighth in this metric with 45% of their games hitting the required marker.
CHESTERFIELD vs NOTTS COUNTY was another pick discussed above and again, the expected end-to-end nature should lend itself to corners.
It's also been a winning pick in 70% of Chesterfield's home contests with the same applying in half of Notts' away.
Finally, we're taking GRIMSBY vs OLDHAM. The travelling side are well clear at the top of League Two's crosses attempted chart.
That's led to double figure corners in 80% of their away league games this season while the Mariners have averaged 7.8 corners taken per home contest.
Cheltenham vs Shrewsbury
- Kick-off: Friday, 15:00 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports+
- Live odds, form and stats
I really wanted this one to appear in This Week's Acca but I couldn't quite convince Joe. I'm not sure why on the prices.
CHELTENHAM TO WIN is available at 15/8 which certainly appeals as a value play for Boxing Day based on their resurgence under Steve Cotterill's guidance.
Sure, Shrewsbury have somewhat improved from a very low floor but Cheltenham's recent form has delivered five wins across seven home league and FA Cup contests.
The first ten games saw just four points for Cheltenham - a return which unsurprisingly left them bottom after a 7-1 thrashing at the hands of Grimsby - but the following 11 under Cotterill have seen a significant 20 points gained.
In fact, that average across a 46-game campaign would see 84 points on the board. This isn't a team performing like a relegation candidate, it's one returning as if they were a promotion outfit.
With current management at the helm, the Robins have secured wins over Bristol Rovers (22nd), Newport (24th) and Barrow (19th), with a 1-1 draw coming against Harrogate (23rd) too.
Shrewsbury have done a solid job in gaining points in recent weeks, but I've got to side with a team of Cheltenham's calibre at the moment.
Blackpool vs Doncaster
- Kick-off: Friday, 15:00 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports+
- Live odds, form and stats
Another game I had jotted down for the Acca but this one, at least, made the long list.
I'd certainly be looking towards Blackpool when building any Boxing Day multiples, with the 6/4 as a single seemingly good value if the price is still there at the time of reading.
The form of ASHLEY FLETCHER though certainly makes the 2/1 TO SCORE ANYTIME worth consideration.
Fletcher's form following Ian Evatt's arrival has been superb. He's netted six goals across his last seven league appearances with three assists also coming during that run.
What is particularly impressive is his clinical nature. Goals against Rotherham and Wigan came from his only shot in each contest.
But then there have been the games which have delivered plenty of chances. The home win over Cardiff had five shots with three against Leyton Orient and Lincoln.
This is a Doncaster side who have struggled massively. They shipped five in a hammering by Plymouth last time out with Cardiff netting four the week prior.
Given his own personal form alongside that of his team, you imagine Fletcher should see an opportunity or two in this one.
Wrexham vs Sheffield United
- Kick-off: Friday, 17:30 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports Main Event
- Live odds, form and stats
A potentially entertaining contest is on the cards in the late kick-off offering, with Wrexham hosting a Sheffield United outfit showing signs of life with Chris Wilder.
Five of their previous seven have ended in victory which is some turnaround when we factor in just how toothless they looked under Ruben Selles.
Wrexham's own form has been ok but it's well short of being able to push for another promotion. The Championship, though, always felt like the ceiling for this current group and manager.
Given the returns in recent Blades away games, taking OVER 2.5 GOALS appeals at even money.
This has been a winner in five of their previous six on the road, with Wilder's side playing their part by scoring three in each of those. The game which fell short being the 2-0 defeat away at West Brom a couple of weeks ago.
It's a far cry from the side which couldn't find the net at the start of the season. This has also come before the opportunity to do real business in the January window although they know they'll have to be shrewd.
It's a 5-6 split on overs being a winner in Wrexham's home games but then only two of those have seen a single goal - it's worth pointing out they came against Charlton and Oxford.
Considering the showings of the Blades on the road though, I did expect this to be a shorter price.
Odds correct at 12:00 GMT (23/12/25)
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