Newcastle bid to bounce back from Champions League disappointment with a Saturday teatime Premier League trip to Bournemouth. Michael Beardmore picks out his best bets.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Bournemouth most corners at 5/2 (Sky Bet)
1pt Anthony Gordon to score anytime at 3/1 (Unibet, Bet MGM, Bet UK)
0.5pt Sean Longstaff first player to be shown a card at 33/1 (William Hill)
- Michael Beardmore (@MickeyBeardmore) is +24pts in profit for the 2023/24 football season
It's proving to be a season of highs and lows for Eddie Howe's Newcastle United.
They've torn apart Paris Saint-Germain in the Champions League, beat both Manchester giants in the Carabao Cup and defeated Arsenal in the Premier League as well as thrashing Sheffield United (8-0), Aston Villa (5-1) and Crystal Palace (4-0).
But back-to-back defeats in Europe to Borussia Dortmund have slightly dulled their momentum, leaving the Magpies bottom of their UCL group, while they have picked up just five points from a possible 15 on the road domestically.
Indeed, an increasingly competitive top half of the Premier League table suggests it's going to be no cakewalk for Newcastle to secure a return ticket to the continent next season.
Howe will have all this running through his mind before the trip south to the other top-flight club where he's regarded as a hero - a Bournemouth side sitting in the bottom three after losing six of their past seven under new boss Andoni Iraola.
What are the best bets?
I just can't get behind Newcastle at best prices of 7/10 here. They have huge injury problems with virtually an entire first XI missing through ailments or suspension - and that list includes some top, top players.
They have also drawn their past two away matches following midweek Champions League exertions - dropping points at West Ham and Wolves, although those are admittedly better sides than the Bournemouth team they face here.
Conversely, though, it's also tough to back a Cherries team that has picked up just two points from a possible 21 against top-half sides this term - the outright outcome is best swerved.
What seems assured, though, is that Newcastle will score - they've done so in every game domestically this season, barring a trip to Manchester City, while only Sheffield United (30) have a worse goals against tally than Bournemouth's 27.
With Callum Wilson potentially joining Alexander Isak on the treatment table, this opens up opportunities for other players in a Newcastle shirt and I like the 3/1 available on ANTHONY GORDON TO SCORE ANYTIME. He's as short as 11/10 elsewhere.
The former Everton man has scored four goals in his past eight league games and is averaging two shots per game - of the Newcastle squad, only Wilson and Isak have scored more or had more efforts on target.
I also note an anomaly in the stats markets - namely that Newcastle are heavy odds-on favourites in the 'most corners' betting when they really do not merit such treatment.
The Magpies are not earning many flag-kicks at all this term, just 4.27 per game (fourth lowest in PL) and that figure drops to 3.4 away while the Cherries average six per game at home, making BOURNEMOUTH MOST CORNERS appeal at 5/2.
Finally, for the long-shot punters out there, I can't resist the mammoth 33/1 on SEAN LONGSTAFF TO BE THE FIRST PLAYER CARDED.
With Guimaraes suspended, Gordon (7) is the only player likely to be on the field who has more cautions than Longstaff - no Bournemouth outfield player has more than two - who has entered the referee's notebook four games running.
BuildABet @50/1
- Bournemouth most corners
- Gordon to score anytime
- Longstaff to be shown a card
CLICK HERE to back with Sky Bet
Taking our three selections - but tweaking Longstaff to be simply shown a card at any time rather than to be the first player in the book - yields a huge value 50/1 BAB.
Score prediction: Bournemouth 1-2 Newcastle (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Team news
On-loan Inter Milan goalkeeper Ionut Radu will likely continue between the sticks for the Cherries with first choice Neto out with an ankle injury. Tyler Adams (hamstring), Emiliano Marcondes (foot) and Ryan Fredericks (calf) are all out long-term.
Midfielder Alex Scott is touch and go after coming off with a knee issue during the 6-1 loss at Manchester City while Luis Sinisterra is pushing for a first Bournemouth start after scoring from the bench at the Etihad.
Newcastle's injury list is mounting with Callum Wilson a doubt after limping off with a tight hamstring against Dortmund, while Bruno Guimaraes is also missing through suspension after collecting a fifth yellow card of the season in the win over Arsenal.
Harvey Barnes (foot), Sandro Tonali (banned), Jacob Murphy (shoulder), Elliot Anderson (back), Sven Botman (knee), Alexander Isak (groin), Javi Manquillo (groin), Matt Targett (hamstring) and Dan Burn (lower back) are all sidelined too.
Predicted line-ups
Bournemouth: Radu; Aarons, Mepham, Zabarnyi, Kelly, Kerkez; Christie, Billing, Tavernier; Sinisterra, Solanke.
Newcastle United: Pope; Trippier, Lascelles, Schar, Hall; Longstaff, Livramento, Joelinton; Gordon, Willock, Almiron.
Match facts
- Having won two of their first three Premier League games against Newcastle (L1), Bournemouth are now winless in their last seven against the Magpies (D4 L3).
- Newcastle are unbeaten in all five of their Premier League away games against Bournemouth (W2 D3).
- Both teams have scored in eight of the 10 Premier League meetings between Bournemouth and Newcastle, including in each of the last seven in a row.
- Bournemouth have lost nine of their last 11 Premier League games against sides who finished in the top four the previous season, with the exceptions being victories against Liverpool (1-0) and Tottenham (3-2) in March and April. The Cherries have conceded 39 goals in these 11 games, scoring 10.
- Bournemouth have won just one of their last 15 Premier League games (D3 L11), beating Burnley 2-1 in their last home game. They last won consecutive matches at the Vitality Stadium in March/April.
- After losing three consecutive Premier League games in August/September, Newcastle are now unbeaten in their last seven (W5 D2). They’ve scored 20 goals across these seven games, while also keeping a clean sheet in all five victories in this run.
- All nine of Bournemouth’s Premier League goals this season have come from open play – they’re the only side yet to score from a set-piece situation so far this term.
- Callum Wilson scored 41 goals in 126 Premier League games for Bournemouth but is yet to face his old side in the competition.
- Newcastle’s Anthony Gordon has been involved in four goals in his last five Premier League games (3 goals, 1 assist), netting their winner against Arsenal last time out.
Odds correct 1415 BST (09/11/23)
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