Championship betting tips: Birmingham v Reading best bets and preview
Birmingham welcome Reading on Wednesday night and Tom Carnduff picks out his best bets, including two at a huge 100/1.
Football betting tips: Birmingham v Reading
2pts Reading (-1 handicap) to beat Birmingham at 15/4 (BetVictor)
0.5pts Kristian Pedersen to be sent off at 100/1 (Sky Bet, William Hill)
0.5pts Maxime Colin to be sent off at 100/1 (Sky Bet, William Hill)
With Birmingham in real danger of dropping down to Sky Bet League One, the talk surrounding St. Andrew's since their most recent defeat has been about the future of Aitor Karanka. The Blues boss has reportedly departed the club and Lee Bowyer is lined up to be his replacement.
This has been the talk since Tuesday. At the time of writing on late Tuesday afternoon, this move has still not happened. Fans have been waiting, regularly refreshing Twitter feeds but nothing has come through the wall of silence since a 10am tweet on Sunday.
The hosts were in a bad position anyway but this behind-the-scenes drama will have only further damaged their preparations for the visit of Reading. It's a promotion hopeful against a team trying to drag themselves away from the drop - the Royals represent great value for all three points.
Reading represent great value
Even if there wasn't the managerial change happening, and the length of time this has supposedly taken, Reading would have still been a value play in the outright market with odds-against available across the board.
Birmingham have lost nine of their last 11 games at home and Reading have the fifth-best away record in the division. The Blues may have won the last meeting between these two but that is just one of three wins against the current top-ten from 15 attempts. Ten of those have ended in defeat.
Reading have an excellent record against those in the bottom-half of the table. They've played 19 games against those from 13th downwards and 12 of those have ended with all three points in the bag. Only four of those fixtures have left them empty-handed.
With this in mind, rather than taking the 6/5 on a Reading win, there is even better value by taking READING TO WIN ON THE -1 HANDICAP with 15/4 available as a best price and 7/2 across the board.
Ten of the Royals' wins in the Championship this season have all been by a two-goal margin or greater, while Birmingham have seen three of their last four defeats all come with at least a two goal difference. Against a struggling side with uncertainty dominating their pre-game preparation, Reading's forwards can enjoy the night.
Go big in the cards market
This game is also a contest between two sides who sit top of contrasting fouls charts. No team has a higher average fouls per game than Birmingham (14.9) while Reading are the division's most fouled team with 15. That should lead to cards for the home side.
The Blues have been shown two or more cards in each of their last 14 games, while Reading have seen the opposition shown two or more yellows in six of their last eight, with two teams also shown reds in their last five. By all means, there is huge value in the cards market but I'm willing to dive into the red card markets, with two players at 100/1 in sight.
The first of which is Birmingham right-back MAXIME COLIN. I'm not too concerned with his own good record when it comes to yellow cards but it's more to do with the opponent he'll be coming up against.
A return to the XI for Ovie Ejaria would be welcome for this selection. The Reading man sees an average of 2.5 fouls per game against him but Michael Olise also sees 2.1. Even Omar Richards is on 1.8 and that could be interesting if he drives further up the flank.
We're not talking about a straight red offence here but the potential for two yellows given the talent on the other side. One player who has been sent off for two yellows this season is KRISTIAN PEDERSEN, and he's also worth a small stakes play given his high number of fouls in recent weeks.
The Birmingham left-back has committed at least one foul in each of his last seven outings for the club and he's seen 12 multi-foul games during the course of the campaign - a run that includes the last game against Reading.
The Royals look great value to win again here but it's worth taking them on the -1 handicap to make the odds even better, that being in a game where COLIN or PEDERSEN could catch the referee's attention.
Birmingham v Reading best bets and score prediction
- 2pts Reading (-1 handicap) to beat Birmingham at 15/4 (BetVictor)
- 0.5pts Kristian Pedersen to be sent off at 100/1 (Sky Bet, William Hill)
- 0.5pts Maxime Colin to be sent off at 100/1 (Sky Bet, William Hill)
Score prediction: Birmingham 0-2 Reading (Sky Bet odds: 17/2)
Odds correct at 1730 GMT (16/03/21)
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