Football betting tips: World Cup qualifiers
1pt Josh Cullen 2+ fouls in Republic of Ireland vs Hungary (19:45) at 10/11 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
0.5pt Bosnia to win and BTTS vs San Marino (19:45) at 4/1 (William Hill)
Republic of Ireland vs Hungary
- Kick-off: Saturday, 19:45 BST
- TV channel: Amazon Prime
- Live odds, form and stats
Jimmy 'The Punt'
Dominik Szoboszlai drew 36 fouls across 14 2024 Euro qualifying and Nations League 2024/25 appearances, that was an average of 2.6 per 90.
JOSH CULLEN should be starting in central midfield for the Republic of Ireland meaning he will be one of the men tasked with containing Szoboszlai.
For his nation, Cullen has committed over a foul a game on average and 2.1 fouls per 90 across his last 12 competitive appearances.
In the Premier League this season, he has committed a foul in each of his three appearances.
Odds correct at 1720 BST (04/09/25)
San Marino vs Bosnia & Herzegovina
- Kick-off: Saturday, 19:45 BST
- Live odds, form and stats
Jake Osgathorpe
The Nations League has been an undoubted success when it's come to improving the quality of the lesser nations. The minnows get to play minnows regularly and actually have a chance of winning matches, which in turn develops them tactically by being able to play a bit more expansively - rather than just backs against the wall.
It's meant that teams like San Marino give a much better account of themselves when entering Euro and World Cup qualifying, and they minnows have found the net more regularly because of it.
In their entire history, San Marino have scored just 24 goals in 166 Euro or World Cup qualifying (14%), but have found the net in six of their 34 since the first Nations League tournament (18%), but have been even more potent than that at home.
They have in fact scored in three of their last four such contests, believe it or not, and in four of their last 10, finding the net against Poland (37th ranked in the world), Denmark (21st), Finland (69th) and Romania (48th) so should test 72nd ranked Bosnia on Saturday.
Ultimately, every one of those goals were in vain from a match result perspective, losing all four, but that potency, coupled with the fact that Bosnia and Herzegovina are hardly a water-tight defence, has me wanting to back BOSNIA TO WIN AND BTTS at 4/1 instead of win to nil at 4/11.
The Bosnians have won all three qualifiers so far but conceded 1.80 xGA against Romania, lost the xG battle to 128th ranked Cyprus (xG: BOS 1.12 - 1.39 CYP) and conceded five shots at home to San Marino in a dominant 1-0 win.
Odds correct at 1450 BST (05/09/25)
Football betting tips: World Cup qualifiers and EFL
1pt Matthew Dennis to score anytime in Notts County vs Fleetwood (15:00) at 7/4 (bet365)
1pt Nuno Mendes 1+ assist in Armenia vs Portugal (17:00) at 7/2 (Ladbroks, Coral)
Notts County vs Fleetwood
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 BST
- TV channel: Sky Sports+
- Live odds, form and stats
Jake Osgathorpe
It's been a bit unpredictable at Notts County, especially off the field, but MATTHEW DENNIS has been predictable, scoring in the last four games, and his price TO SCORE ANYTIME should be snapped up again this weekend.
He has been red hot for a while at this level, scoring in his last three games in League Two for Carlisle before moving to Notts, and scoring in four of six. That's a solid block of form.
This season he's averaged 0.48 xG per 90, in a relegated team last season it was 0.59 xG per 90, which shows he is a player who consistently gets on the end of good scoring chances.
Fleetwood have conceded the fifth most xGA per game this season (1.45), shipping eight goals, so Dennis should get chances to keep his run going.
Odds correct at 1500 BST (05/09/25)
Armenia vs Portugal
- Kick-off: Saturday, 17:00 BST
- TV channel: Amazon Prime
- Live odds, form and stats
Jake Osgathorpe
The Nations League champions Portugal get their World Cup qualifying campaign underway with a lovely looking trip to minnows Armenia, and unsurprisingly they are heavily favoured to get the win (1/7).
Roberto Martinez's side bulldozed their Euro qualifying group - winning all 10 matches by an aggregate of 36-2 - and so a high-scoring away win should be expected, especially with how Armenia have defended in the las two International breaks (16 conceded in last four).
Goalscorers was the initial thought, but all of Portugal's main men are very short - Cristiano Ronaldo is 1/2 anytime, 23/10 to score 2+ and just 10/1 to bag a hat-trick - and then I though, what about the player who sets them up?
That led me to NUNO MENDES 1+ ASSIST, which looks a great value play at 7/2. The left-back blossomed last season for both PSG and his country, getting into more advanced areas more regularly and adding more quality to his delivery.
He provided six assists in 10 Nations League matches including setting up the eventual winner in the semi-final of the play-offs, so against a side where Seleção should score three or four, his price stands out for Portugal.
Odds correct at 1300 BST (05/09/25)
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