Football betting tips: Champions League
17:45
2pts Ayoub El Kaabi to score anytime in Olympiakos vs Pafos at 10/11 (Sky Bet)
20:00
1pt Jonathan Tah to commit 2+ fouls in Bayern vs Chelsea at 23/10 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
1pt Wout Weghorst to be carded in Ajax vs Inter at 4/1 (Sky Bet)
1pt Francesco Acerbi to be carded in Ajax vs Inter at 15/2 (Sky Bet, Betfair, Paddy Power)
0.5pt Weghorst and Acerbi card double at 37/1 (Betfair)
Olympiakos vs Pafos
- Kick-off: Wednesday, 17:45 BST
- TV: TNT Sports 3
- Live odds, form and stats
Jake Osgathorpe
Olympiakos should have too much for new boys Pafos here, and will be looking to get a win on the board early as they aim to sneak into the top 24.
They should do so comfortably, and we simply have to back AYOUB EL KAABI TO SCORE ANYTIME at 10/11 money.
He is extremely prolific at the tip of the Olympiacos attack, and simply loves European competition. In 23/24 he scored 14 goals across the Europa and Conference League as the Greek side won the latter, averaging an excellent 0.61 xG per 90.
Last season he scored seven goals in the Europa League, averaging 0.75 xG per 90, so he will fancy his chances of getting on the scoresheet in this very winnable opener.
Odds correct at 1620 BST (16/09/25)
Bayern Munich vs Chelsea
- Kick-off: Wednesday, 20:00 BST
- TV: TNT Sports 2
- Live odds, form and stats
Jake Osgathorpe
Chelsea visit the Allianz Arena on Wednesday, the scene of one of the greatest nights in their history. Who could forget a Blues side led by Roberto Di Matteo, with Ryan Bertrand playing left-wing, beating the mighty Bayern Munich on penalties in their own back yard to lift the Champions League trophy for the first time?
And who can forget John Terry going full-kit-w****r to lift the trophy, despite not playing in the final...? Incredible scenes.
Anyway, this crop of Blues will fancy their chances as they head to Germany, as while Bayern are juggernauts in Germany, they have found life a lot tougher against elite opponents.
Vincent Kompany's men could only finish 12th in the Champions League league phase last season before being ousted by Inter in the quarter-finals, and in the summer they lost to PSG at the same stage of the Club World Cup,
Quotes of 4/1 about the Blues did tempt me, but instead we'll take JONATHAN TAH TO COMMIT 2+ FOULS at 23/10.
With Bayern needing to get off to a good start to give themselves the best chance of finishing in the top eight, we should expect them to take a few attacking risks, which could leave Tah in some compromising positions.
He isn't shy about making fouls as it is, committing 10 fouls in four games against Bundesliga opponents, including four in the German Super Cup which has so far been Bayern's most high-profile and important game before this.
That's an average of 2.50 per 90, and it's probably worth mentioning how he also committed six fouls in three starts for Bayern during the Club World Cup, which included a four foul game against Auckland that saw his side win 10-0, yes TEN.
Chances are that he'll be up against Joao Pedro, who has drawn 1.90 fouls per 90 so far this season too, so all in all the 23/10 price looks massive. He's 5/1 to be carded (Sky Bet) and 8/1 to commit 3+ fouls (Sky Bet), and I wouldn't put anyone off those too.
Ajax vs Inter
- Kick-off: Wednesday, 20:00 BST
- TV: TNT Sports 5
- Live odds, form and stats
Jimmy the Punt
Michael Oliver has the whistle for this one and he has averaged 4.7 cards across 30 Champions League group stage appearances. He has given seven or more cards in almost a quarter of those games (23.33%).
Cards could be a good way in here and WOUT WEGHORST's price TO BE SHOWN A CARD appeals.
The frontman has picked up two cards in five Eredivisie appearances this season and has six in 33 continental appearances across his career.
It is also worth noting he had a run in with FRANCESCO ACERBI when Netherlands lost to Italy in the Nations League (2022/23). The pair were both booked in injury time.
Acerbi has only picked up five cards across the last four seasons for Inter in Serie A (0.07 cards per 90). However, his cards per 90 average of 0.18 in the Champions League does make quotes of 15/2 value and that is without considering his history with Weghorst and the referee.
I’ll be backing the Italian defender TO BE SHOWN A CARD as a single and alongside his direct opponent in a CARD DOUBLE.
Odds correct at 1620 BST (16/09/25)
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