Football betting tips: Carabao Cup
1.5pt Millwall Asian handicap (+1.5) vs Crystal Palace (20:00) at 29/40 (bet365)
0.5pt Millwall to win on penalties at 17/2 (bet365)
0.5pt Brentford to win to nil vs Aston Villa (20:00) at 9/2 (General)
Brentford vs Aston Villa
- Kick-off: Tuesday, 20:00 BST
- TV: Sky Sports Main Event
- Live odds, form and stats
Jimmy 'The Punt'
Aston Villa have made a bad start to the campaign.
Four games in and the Villans haven’t scored a goal yet, nor do they deserve to.
In the Premier League they have generated a total of 3.1 xG (19th fewest in the division) and created four ‘big chances’ (xG greater than 0.30), which is also the second fewest in the division. They have shipped the second most xGA (7.4) too, which suggests they have been lucky to only concede four goals.
I don’t know if this poor start has changed anything but recent history suggests Unai Emery isn’t a big fan of this competition. Last season the Spanish supremo made 10 changes in both games. They beat League One's Wycombe 2-1 then were knocked out by Crystal Palace. The season before, they were knocked out in their first game by Everton.
You have to put significant stock into this, even though Keith Andrews has suggested he will also be rotating on Tuesday night.
He said: “The squad will get utilised. It’s a competition we take very seriously, it’s as simple as that.
“We want to go through, and we’ll pick a team that we believe can beat Villa.”
Backing BRENTFORD TO WIN TO NIL is the bet.
Crystal Palace vs Millwall
- Kick-off: Tuesday, 20:00 BST
- TV: Sky Sports+
- Live odds, form and stats
Jimmy 'The Punt'
If Carabao Cup games are level after 90 minutes they go straight to penalties which changes the dynamic. No replays. No extra time. So, it gives extra incentive to the underdogs and in the last round there were some pretty big priced beneficiaries.
Grimsby went off at 14/1 to beat Manchester United and did so on penalties. Sheffield Wednesday (25/1) beat Leeds on penalties and Huddersfield (5/1) beat Sunderland on penalties. In the first round, Bromley (11/2) also beat Ipswich on penalties.
Considering this, backing MILLWALL TO WIN ON PENALTIES has to be worth a punt at 17/2.
The rivalry must also be factored in, this is a South London Derby which could lead to a tight and cagey affair.
The Lions head to Selhurst Park looking to pull off a scalp and are yet to lose on their travels this campaign (W3 D1). So, at the prices available, taking them +1.5 ASIAN HANDICAP also appeals.
That said, the Crystal Palace manager doesn’t take cup competitions lightly. The Eagles lifted the FA Cup last season and made it to the quarter-final of this competition so these bets could backfire spectacularly.
Odds correct at 1545 BST (15/09/25)
More from Sporting Life
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
