Football betting tips: Saturday best bets
Saturday 15:00
0.5pt Portsmouth to beat West Ham (Draw No Bet) at 19/5 (General)
0.5pt Crawley to beat Watford (Draw No Bet) at 8/1 (BetVictor)
0.5pt Northampton to beat Leicester (Draw No Bet) at 8/1 (BetVictor)
Saturday 17:30
0.5pt Colchester to beat Southampton (Draw No Bet) at 7/1 (BetVictor)
0.5pt Cheltenham to beat Charlton (Draw No Bet) at 3/1 (General)
It feels odd for the Carabao Cup to open the EFL season, but it's not without precedent.
The same thing happened in 2012, creating an opening weekend that sits somewhere between a final pre-season friendly and the proper stuff.
That year also produced one of my favourite football memories. I made the short trip across the Pennines to Spotland to watch Barnsley face Rochdale, where an awkward-looking 18-year-old right-back named John Stones made his full professional debut. He spent much of the afternoon gliding past opponents, scored what proved to be his only Barnsley goal and looked every inch a future star.
Anyway, enough nostalgia...
- Championship outright: Top to bottom
- Top scorer preview: Bam Bam
- League One outright: On the Hatters
- League Two outright: Cobblers a shoe-in
One feature of these opening rounds of the cup is their unpredictability. In 2012, 13 of the 35 first-round matches (37%) went beyond 90 minutes. Last season, with extra time now removed, 10 of 35 (29%) finished level before penalties.
It's not a perfect comparison, but draws occur in around 23% of Premier League games and 21% of Champions League matches over the past decade, suggesting these early-season cup ties are significantly more difficult to separate.
And no matter when the EFL Cup first round takes place upsets are commonplace.
Last year, 15 of the 35 ties (43%) upset the odds over 90 minutes, with nine outright shocks and six draws.
We've already seen that trend continue. Walsall won 1-0 at Bristol City as 7/1 outsiders on Thursday, while 7/2 Crawley also won 2-0 in their preliminary round at York. Tranmere and Rochdale shared a draw.
With that in mind, I'm siding with the outsiders on Saturday.
There's no obvious pattern to whether the shocks come home or away, or whether a divisional gap matters, so the biggest prices appeal most. All are backed DRAW NO BET, with stakes returned if the tie is level after 90 minutes.
PORTSMOUTH are worth chancing at 19/5 away to West Ham.
Pompey will take around 9,000 supporters for their first trip to the London Stadium and arrive as a settled, well-drilled side under John Mousinho, now entering his fourth full season in charge.
West Ham, meanwhile, are unlikely to resemble their strongest XI until the transfer window closes, with lots to sort this month, this feels like a competition Nuno Espirito Santo could do without.
COLCHESTER appeal at 7/1 against Southampton.
Saints' first game since being expelled from the Championship play-offs for spying is a potentially awkward trip to Essex, where Danny and Nicky Cowley will have Colchester well organised and tough to beat.
With Southampton a general 1/3 to win in normal time, the hosts are worth chancing in what should be a lively atmosphere.
CRAWLEY (8/1) could cause problems for Watford.
Their 2-0 win at York on Monday means they already have competitive minutes in the legs, while Watford are beginning another new era after yet more summer upheaval, with key departures and another managerial change.
I'm just really finding it hard to get onboard with the Hornets at the moment.
CHELTENHAM also catch the eye at 3/1 against Charlton.
Steve Cotterill's teams are invariably awkward opponents, especially at Whaddon Road, and Charlton have recent history of stumbling in this competition after losing to League Two Cambridge last season.
The Robins should relish turning this into the kind of physical, scrappy contest that cup upsets are all about.
Finally, NORTHAMPTON are worth backing at 8/1 away to Leicester.
Russell Martin's possession-heavy approach has often taken time to click at previous clubs, making this a potentially uncomfortable first competitive outing.
Northampton, beginning a new era under Chris Hogg, will be well supported for the short trip to the King Power and at the prices are worth siding with.
Odds correct at 16:50 BST (7/8/26)
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