Champions League betting tips: Bayern Munich v PSG best bets and preview
Last year's Champions League finalists meet for the first leg of a mouth-watering tie, and Jake Pearson has looked past the outright betting and picked out two selections on alternative markets.
Football betting tips: Bayern Munich v PSG
- 1.5pts 50+ booking points at Evens (Sky Bet)
- 1pt Over 10.5 corners at 7/5 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
Bayern Munich are close to even money to win a football match.
You do not see that very often. In fact, there have been just three occasions this season in which Bayern have been sent off odds against; away at Borussia Dortmund earlier in the season, away at Atletico Madrid in the Champions League Group Stage (Bayern were already through and made a hefty amount of changes to their starting XI), and most recently away at RB Leipzig at the weekend. Unsurprisingly, Bayern Munich lost none of those matches.
The reason behind Bayern Munich’s price of 6/4 at the weekend is the same reason they are as big as they are to win this match; Robert Lewandowski, or lack thereof.
Lewandowski has been ruled for up to four weeks with a knee injury, meaning if Bayern Munich are to progress to the semi-final stages of the competition, they will have to do so without their talisman.
How big a miss is Lewandowski?
Lewandowski has been in ever sparkling form this season, scoring 35 goals in his 24 Bundesliga appearances, as well as already having netted five times in this competition, and if he were fit, Bayern Munich’s current price would look incredibly appealing.
It is difficult to quantify just how important a player is to a team though, particularly when factoring in prices, and it is tough to know if Bayern Munich still represent value at their current price without their best player.
Return of Neymar
On the other side of the coin, PSG will welcome Neymar back to the Champions League fold after the Brazilian sat out his side’s victory over Barcelona in the last round.
PSG were hugely impressive in the first leg of that tie, sweeping Barcelona aside with impressive counter-attacks created by Marco Verratti.
Unfortunately for the Parisians however, Verratti has been ruled out of the fixture after testing positive for Covid-19. That is by no means as big a blow as Bayern losing Lewandowski, but it will certainly pose a problem for Mauricio Pochettino.
The long and short of this is, the win-draw-win market looks incredibly difficult to call, so it is certainly worth looking elsewhere for value bets in this fixture.
Where is the value?
In the last five seasons there have been 112 goals scored over 32 Champions League quarter-final matches, which points towards goals, obviously.
But it also points towards goalmouth action, with leads to corners, and OVER 10.5 CORNERS at a price of 7/5 makes plenty of appeal in this game, particularly considering there have been exactly 11 corners in each of PSG's last three Champions League matches, as well as in Bayern Munich’s first leg against Lazio in the last round.
Another alternative market worth looking at is the cards market, specifically booking points.
Only Lazio and Inter Milan have received more yellow cards than PSG in the Champions League this season (22), while the Parisians have also been shown two red cards in the competition.
Bayern Munich’s yellow card stats are not quite as high, but only six teams in the competition have committed more fouls than Hansi Flick’s side, and with PSG's pace on the break, there could be plenty of cards being handed out.
And this is all before we get onto referee, Antonio Mateu Lahoz, who has shown 20 yellow cards in his four Champions League matches this term, whilst also dishing out 64 cards in the 14 La Liga games he has overseen, giving him an average of 4.67 cards per match.
For this reason, the even money available with Sky Bet about 50+ BOOKING POINTS looks worth a wager, particularly given, as well as the yellow cards, you have the extra buffer of a potential red card, which makes this particular selection stand out more than just backing over 4.5 cards with other firms.
Bayern Munich v PSG best bets and score prediction
- 1.5pts 50+ booking points at Evens (Sky Bet)
- 1pt Over 10.5 corners at 7/5 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
Score prediction: Bayern Munich 2-1 PSG (Sky Bet odds: 8/1)
Odds correct at 1300 BST (06/04/21)
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