Yorkshire rivals Barnsley and Sheffield Wednesday meet at Wembley on Bank Holiday Monday with a place in the Sky Bet Championship at stake. Michael Beardmore provides his best bets.
Football betting tips: League One play-off final
1pt Barnsley to win at 5/2 (Unibet)
1pt Nicky Cadden to score anytime at 15/2 (Sky Bet, William Hill)
0.5pt Reece James 1+ shots on target at 12/1 (Sky Bet)
* All bets 90 minutes
Much more than local pride will be on the line at Wembley come Monday afternoon as Barnsley and Sheffield Wednesday meet for the right to return to the second tier of English football.
Both reached the Sky Bet League One play-off final in contrasting fashion – Barnsley unspectacularly holding off Bolton, while Wednesday produced the greatest comeback in play-off history to erase a 4-0 first-leg deficit against Peterborough.
Each team will take heart from the way they reached the final but there can be only one winner to join Ipswich and Plymouth Argyle in the Championship next season.
Sheffield Wednesday finished one place and 10 points above Barnsley during the regular season – but the Tykes did the double over the Owls, winning 2-0 at Hillsborough last September and 4-2 at Oakwell in March.
Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Monday
TV channel: Sky Sports Main Event
Barnsley 12/5 | Draw 12/5 | Sheff Wed 11/10
That head-to-head could give Barnsley a psychological edge here and I’m surprised to see them as long as 5/2 to win in 90 minutes, with Wednesday considered comfortable favourites around 6/5, given both teams appear so evenly matched.
The pressure is on the Owls regardless of their miraculous comeback in the semis – they are the bigger club and, what’s more, they threw away automatic promotion when it was in their hands.
Even though Wednesday finished the regular season 10 points better off than Barnsley, that was chiefly down to a slow start from the Tykes, who had a relegation hangover to deal with plus a new boss to get used to in Michael Duff.
Since beginning a five-game winning run at the end of October, no side in the division has amassed more points than BARNSLEY, level with Wednesday on 65, and the price on them TO WIN IN 90 MINUTES is too large to turn down.
Now, if you read James Cantrill's excellent outright play-offs preview, you will already have a 5/2 slip on the Tykes to be promoted and a 9/2 forecast on a Barnsley winner/Sheff Wed runner-up burning a hole in your wallet.
For those who have, I’ll try to find you some value away from the result here – and I’m going to turn to two players who have already had an impact on their teams’ play-off campaigns.
Attacking wing-back NICKY CADDEN has really hit his stride in recent months after a summer move from Forest Green – he has scored five goals in his past 13 games including a crucial one against Bolton in the semi-final first leg.
In those 13 games, the Scot has attempted 21 shots, having previously only tried his luck 23 times in his prior 25 appearances.
He’s man high on confidence, in fine form and knows where the net is – so the 15/2 available on Cadden TO SCORE ANYTIME looks a very inviting play at juicy odds.
Value is tougher to find in the Owls ranks with strikers Michael Smith, Josh Windass and Lee Gregory dominating scorer and stats markets but one of their semi-final scorers, REECE JAMES, is worth a look.
The centre-back scored in the second leg against Posh and also tested the goalkeeper in a draw at Oxford near the end of the season.
That’s two efforts on target in his past four games yet he’s 12/1 just to have 1+ SHOTS ON TARGET in the final, a price that simply cannot be refused after attempting six shots in his past six games overall.
Barnsley v Sheffield Wednesday score prediction and best bets
- Barnsley to win at 5/2 (Unibet)
- Nicky Cadden to score anytime at 15/2 (Sky Bet, William Hill)
- Reece James 1+ shots on target at 12/1 (Sky Bet)
Score prediction: Barnsley 2-1 Sheff Wed (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
Odds correct 1330 BST (25/05/23)
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