It may not look an attractive fixture on paper, but backing Brighton to beat Cardiff can get your Saturday football wagers off to a winning start.
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Cardiff v Brighton (1230 GMT Sky Sports Main Event)
On paper it doesn’t sound like one for the end-of-season DVD, but it’s an intriguing Saturday lunchtime starter in Cardiff.
The Bluebirds are still in the drop zone, and probably destined to be there come May, but they have had some highlights of late, most notably a 4-2 thumping of Fulham at home.
Bar that, though, they’ve lost the other five of their last six and scored just twice against teams not called Fulham – who are well on their way to one of the worst defensive efforts ever in the Premier League.
A trio of 1-0 wins has shot Brighton up to the lofty heights of 12th in the table, although a 3-1 reverse at Everton burst that particular bubble. Still, Chris Hughton’s side will fancy another three points heading to Wales.
A low-scorer looks on the cards but the Seagulls undoubtedly have the better squad, and the main goal threat on show in Glenn Murray.
Only the hapless Fulham can match Cardiff’s run of conceding the first goal eight times this season, while Hughton’s teams have not conceded a goal against Neil Warnock’s outfits in five attempts.
We’ll let those stats guide us when picking out the best bets.
Prediction Cardiff 0-1 Brighton (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
It should be a struggle and the draw does look appealing at first but Brighton have been much better away from home this season than last despite just the one win at Newcastle, and this is a similar assignment that they can come through. Cardiff have offered up chances to most teams so preference is for the visitors to pinch it.
Best bet: Brighton win at 2/1
Taking a view on this game hopefully nets us some decent returns with a half decent price given the quality of the respective teams. The Seagulls have a better defence and better attacking options so just taking the simple victory looks the way ahead.
Goals: Glenn Murray first goal at 5/1
As the one true attacking talent on show, and with goals looking to be in short supply then this price on Murray, who can also take penalties, is the bet.
RequestABet: Brighton win, under 2.5 goals, Murray to score, under 10 corners at 20/1
Plenty of effort due in this game but little quality in an attacking sense so we're going low on most counts to bring home the bacon and get the weekend off to a winning start.
Cardiff v Brighton Opta stats
- Cardiff and Brighton have never faced before in the top-flight of English football, making this the fourth new top-flight fixture this season (Bournemouth vs Cardiff, Brighton vs Fulham and Bournemouth vs Fulham the others).
- Cardiff vs Brighton will become the 100th different fixture to have been played in all four divisions of the English Football League.
- Cardiff are without a clean sheet in their last eight Premier League games, shipping 22 goals in total and losing seven of those matches (W1).
- Brighton have won just one of their last 19 Premier League matches away from home (D5 L13), with that victory coming against Newcastle last month.
- 33% of Brighton’s Premier League away victories have been in Wales (1/3 – 1-0 vs Swansea in November 2017).
- Brighton’s Glenn Murray has scored in just one of his previous seven league matches against Cardiff – however, he did bag in a hat-trick against them, netting all three in a 3-2 victory for Crystal Palace in September 2012.
- Only Eden Hazard, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang and Sergio Aguero (7 each) have scored more Premier League goals than Brighton’s Glenn Murray this season (6).
- In five previous managerial league meetings between Brighton boss Chris Hughton and Cardiff manager Neil Warnock, the Irishman has won four and drawn the other, keeping clean sheets in all five matches.
Posted at 1515 GMT on 08/11/18.
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Posted at 1500 GMT on 08/11/18