Football betting tips: Madrid derby
2pts Real Madrid to win (Draw no bet) at 17/20 (Unibet, BetUK)
1pt Real Madrid to win by exactly 1 goal at 10/3 (bet365)
Over the past decade, Atletico Madrid have greatly punched above their weight, not only in La Liga, but also on the continent under Diego Simeone. They have won the league twice (2014 and 2021), finishing second in 2018 and 2019, while reaching the Champions League final twice (2014 and 2016).
It has been the most consistent period of the clubs history, with Atleti finishing in the top three in La Liga in every season since 2012.
They have been a constant thorn in the side of Spain's 'big two', defying a lesser budget and lesser quality in the squad, picking up the pieces when either have had an indifferent season.
However, this season looks as though the Clasico pair have kicked on again, while Simeone's men have stood still.
The Madrid derby is always a stellar event, which usually features a lot more cards than goals, and Atleti welcome their rivals Real on the back of two poor results and poor performances.
Simeone called their 3-0 loss to Valencia last weekend "possibly the weakest game since I've been at the club", while the usually reliable go-one-up-and-sit-back approach failed spectacularly in midweek, as Lazio's goalkeeper Ivan Provedel scored a late equaliser.
Continuously relying upon such a tactic isn't a sustainable way to pick up enough points to challenge for top honours, and while city rivals Real are also lacking a top striker after the sale of Karim Benzema, they have an abundance of creative options in behind.
While Carlo Ancelotti's men have managed six wins from six in all competitions this season, they are yet to blow anyone away, requiring calm heads and patience to score late, last-gasp goals to secure wins over Celta Vigo, Getafe and most recently Union Berlin.
There is always a lot at stake when the teams take the field for El Derbi Madrileño, but given the state of the early season table, this feels like a bigger than usual edition.
A Real win maintains their 100% start and puts them 11 points ahead of Atleti. A win for Simeone's men sees them close the gap on Real to just five points with a game in hand, potentially thrusting themselves back into the title conversation.
What are the best bets?
I can't shake the feeling that REAL MADRID are far superior to Atletico this season, and perhaps controversially, their lack of a top striker potentially helping them in this head-to-head. Playing with an extra midfielder - in a 4-4-2 diamond shape - will allow Real more control of the ball, potentially negating most of the threat posed by Atleti.
This game will very likely be low scoring, so backing the visitors DRAW NO BET appeals, as with the chances of a draw increased by a low goal total.
Ancelotti's side have averaged 2.21 xGF and 1.35 xGA per game this season across their five league wins, so are posting solid underlying numbers, while Simeone's men have struggled to create chances when facing mid-table teams Valencia and Real Betis.
Atletico have lost just three of their last 20 home league games stretching back to the start of last season, but two of those were when hosting the Clasico pair, and I suspect that will be the case again this season, with Atleti firmly 'best of the rest' but beaten when they face the top two.
Since 2017 Atleti have won only three of 24 league matches against Real Madrid and Barcelona, losing 11.
Given the way Atletico have set-up in these kind of games for over 10-years, and the manner of Real's wins this season, I'm going to have a small play on REAL MADRID TO WIN BY EXACTLY ONE GOAL.
All of Real's last four wins have come via a one-goal margin, and Atleti's stats for this bet are crazy.
In the last seven seasons, Simeone's men have lost 36 times, and 20 of those have come via a one-goal margin - 56% of defeats. So if Atleti are to lose, history suggests that it's a better than 50/50 chance its by just a single goal.
BuildABet @ 10/1
- Real Madrid +1 handicap
- Jude Bellingham 1+ shot on target
- Jude Bellingham 2+ total shots
- Rodrygo 1+ shot on target
- Mario Hermoso to commit 2+ fouls
- Alvaro Morata to commit 2+ fouls
Real Madrid should avoid defeat in this one, while star man Jude Bellingham has so far averaged 2.4 shots per 90 and 1.8 shots on target per 90 in La Liga.
The man ahead of him on the pitch, Rodrygo, has averaged 1.4 shots on target per 90 this term.
Mario Hermoso has been a busy boy on the left side of Atletico's back three, and has averaged 2.0 fouls per 90 this season. Atleti's striker, Alvaro Morata, is also high on the foul count, averaging 2.3 per 90.
Score prediction: Atletico Madrid 0-1 Real Madrid (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Team news
Atletico Madrid are set to be without their midweek goalscorer, Pablo Barrios, after he picked up an injury in Rome. Thomas Lemar is a long term absentee, as is Vitolo.
World Cup winning midfielder Raul de Paul is expected to miss out here, as is former Leicester defender Çağlar Söyüncü.
Memphis Depay and Axel Witsel are questionable for Atleti.
Real will be without Dani Carvajal, meaning Lucas Vazquez will likely continue at right-back, with starting goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois also out.
Eder Militao will be missing for Ancelotti's men, as will young Turkish starlet Arda Güler. Jude Bellingham is labelled as questionable but did play all 97 minutes in midweek, while Real could welcome back Vinicius Jr after his injury lay-off.
Predicted line-ups
Atletico: Oblak; Molina, Savic, Gimenez, Hermoso, Lino; Llorente, Witsel, Niguez; Morata, Griezmann
Real: Kepa; L. Vazquez, Rudiger, Alaba, F. Mendy; Tchouameni, Camavinga, Valverde; Bellingham; Joselu, Rodrygo
Odds correct at 1430 BST (22/09/23)
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