Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Jake O'Brien 1+ total shots at 29/20 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
1pt James Tarkowski 1+ total shots at 13/8 (General)
0.5pt Tarkowski to score anytime at 18/1 (General)
0.5pt O'Brien to score anytime at 14/1 (General)
Aston Villa have seen their title aspirations take a hit over the festive period. The fact that we're saying that in mid-January highlights what a remarkable campaign it has been for Unai Emery's side.
They won't like to admit they're in the running for top spot in the Premier League table but the facts beg to differ. They trail leaders Arsenal by six points heading into the weekend with their tally of 43 level with Manchester City and eight clear of Liverpool in fourth.
Unsurprisingly, a side in their position has had great results at home. Crystal Palace are the only team to have beaten them with Newcastle also taking a point - both of those coming in their poor start to the season which delivered no win across the first five.
That was a run which included a 0-0 draw with Everton at the Hill Dickinson. Turning attentions back to the west Midlands though and other visitor to Villa Park has left empty-handed.
There's little reason to believe the outcome on Sunday will be any different.
That point against Villa is the only semi-positive return they've had against those at the top-end of the table. The other five games against the top six have ended in defeat with Newcastle and Brentford - yes, Keith Andrews' Brentford are fifth - netting four each in victory.
I am tempted by the 7/10 available on a home win. A short price but one in which plenty of people will hold confidence. I do, however, have a couple of pro-Everton (sort of) angles which provide better value.
The one area which the Toffees boast far more dominance over Sunday's opponents is in the air. Everton top the charts for aerials won in the Premier League this season (by some distance too at an average of 22.4 per game) while Villa are rock bottom (12.0 per game).
I don't expect the away side to rack up the corner count but then these two picks don't require that to happen. JAMES TARKOWSKI 1+ TOTAL SHOTS and JAKE O'BRIEN 1+ TOTAL SHOTS are worth a look each at odds-against prices.
This should be Everton's centre-back pairing given the suspended Michael Keane will be missing. He returned a huge total of four shots when the sides last met with one of those on targets.
These picks don't require one on target though and a header high and wide would be good enough. I struggle to see how Villa will be able to totally nullify the threat the duo will bring at set-piece situations.
Worryingly, Villa's likely centre-back pairing of Pau Torres and Ezri Konsa average 1.7 aerials won per game combined. Tarkowski is going at 4.4 himself, with O'Brien in at 3.1.
There is the potential that Emery looks to bring in Tyrone Mings following his spot on the bench in the FA Cup win over Tottenham but he can't deal with both threats at the same time.
Tarkowski's not exactly prolific in the shots area but then you feel this is a route Everton may well target to goal. Villa sit middle of the pack in terms of set-pieces goals allowed yet the clear aerial difference is there.
I'll also side with a TARKOWSKI GOAL ANYTIME at 18s alongside O'BRIEN ANYTIME at 14s - both with smaller stakes than the single shot.
Again, opportunities may be limited but the prices appeal on what should be a mismatch in the air.
Odds correct at 11:50 GMT (16/01/26)
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