Jake Pearson previews the Premier League clash between Aston Villa and Tottenham, picking out his best bets and score prediction.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Aston Villa to win or draw (double chance) at 7/10 (General)
1pt Harry Kane to score anytime at 7/5 (General)
Aston Villa, on a run of three successive defeats, take on a Tottenham team who arrive at Villa Park on the back of three wins – the first time since Antonio Conte took charge that Spurs have won three consecutive Premier League matches.
On bare form, there is only one outcome here, but there is more to consider than the last three fixtures these two have played, and in fact, often results in the immediate past can be far too heavily weighted and lead to the win prices being skewed somewhat.
The “hot hand fallacy” is a psychological term for when an assumption is made that a team, or person, is either “hot” or “cold”, and that a previous good/bad patch of form will make future success more likely/unlikely.
Of course, with football it is true to a certain extent, confidence and momentum are factors to consider, but it is better to look at the teams as a whole, rather than concentrating on their most recent snippets of form.
Kick-off time: 17:30 BST, Saturday
TV Channel: Sky Sports Main Event
Aston Villa 21/10 | Draw 12/5 | Tottenham 5/4
Worth noting also, is that all three of Villa’s defeats came against teams currently in the top eighth in the Premier League, while two of Tottenham’s three wins came against teams thirteenth or lower.
Aston Villa have picked up 11 points from a possible 27 at Villa Park since Steven Gerrard took charge, but given their nine matches on home soil have included ties against Manchester City, Leicester, Chelsea, Manchester United and Arsenal, that isn’t a bad return.
Consider also that their expected goals difference (xGD) across those nine matches is -0.18 and it becomes apparent how Villa can hold their own at home against the league’s elite.
Tottenham are certainly that at the minute, picking up the third most points in the league since Conte’s arrival, but only ten of their away trips under the Italian have ended in victory, and there are reasons to believe that Gerrard’s men can hold Spurs to at least a draw.
Villa have conceded just 22 times in the 19 league matches that Gerrard has overseen, and one-goal margin defeats to Manchester City, Liverpool, West Ham and Arsenal, as well as a draw at Old Trafford, demonstrates how difficult the top teams have found it to break down this stubborn defence.
Tottenham have been creating lots of chances since Conte’s arrival, but against well-drilled, organised outfits they have struggled the most, their three fixtures against Southampton, Wolves and Burnley yielding three defeats.
Though this may not end in defeat, Villa are more than capable of nicking something in this fixture, and backing ASTON VILLA TO WIN OR DRAW (DOUBLE CHANCE) is the first recommended selection in this fixture.
The second selection comes in the form of a goalscorer, and though it may seem counterintuitive to side with Tottenham not to win, as well as backing one of their players to get on the scoresheet, if a good price is there to be had, then it is worth backing irrelevant.
The good price in question is the 7/5 about HARRY KANE TO SCORE ANYTIME.
The Spurs marksman has been in blistering form of late, scoring five in his last six, as well as laying on a further four for his teammates.
Kane has averaged 0.42 goals a game (per 95 minutes) this season, with his expected goals (xG) average slightly higher at 0.53.
According to xG he should have netted more than the 12 he has to his name so far this season, but should he continue to take up the positions he has been doing throughout the season, more goals will follow.
That plenty of firms are odds-on about the England forward’s chances of getting on the scoresheet in this fixture certainly makes 7/5 stand out.
Aston Villa v Tottenham best bets and score prediction
- 1pt Aston Villa to win or draw (double chance) at 7/10 (General)
- 1pt Harry Kane to score anytime at 7/5 (General)
Score prediction: Aston Villa 1-1 Tottenham (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Odds correct at 0830 GMT (07/04/21)
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