Aston Villa welcome Leeds on Wednesday night and Tom Carnduff has found value with two bets in the stats markets.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1.5pts Pascal Struijk to have 3+ tackles at 13/8 (Sky Bet)
1pt Robin Koch to have 3+ tackles at 12/5 (Ladbrokes)
It's been a decent break for both of these sides following their third round exits from the FA Cup. Neither has played competitive football in two-and-a-half weeks meaning both should be fresh and ready to go post-winter break.
Leeds are in the outside group of the relegation battle but their 22 points puts them in a much better position as we're just beyond the halfway stage. They're on target for 40 - although low 30s might just about be enough to keep you up in what should be a low tally season.
For Villa, their transfer activity highlights their ambitions to be a club around the European places, but it will take time to achieve that. For now, mid-table security is fine.
The outright market does provide some interest - and Jake Pearson has focused on this game in his Beat the Market column - but the stats stand out to me with varying prices across the board.
Particularly, Leeds are a high tackles team and this game should be no different. Marcelo Bielsa's side average 19.3 tackles per game - the highest in the Premier League - with their 21 in away games the most of any side on the road.
One bet to look at is PASCAL STRUIJK TO HAVE 3+ TACKLES. He will likely be starting at centre-back once again and he can continue his decent run in this area.
Struijk has started 11 games in the Premier League this season. Backing 3+ tackles would have won in five of those. Three of those came in away contests - with the other three starts all seeing two.
It's hardly a surprise when we factor in that he averaged 1.8 tackles in the Premier League last season. His 2.3 per game average is consistent with both his own previous showings and Leeds' style of play.
We're gambling a bit on team news here but ROBIN KOCH TO HAVE 3+ TACKLES is an interesting play at 12/5. If he is involved, it's likely that he stands in for the injured Kalvin Phillips at CDM.
While he hasn't hit this target yet this season, he has previously excelled in the tackles count when playing in midfield. It's also worth noting that he's only started five games due to injury, with two of those at centre-back.
Koch completed two tackles at CDM against Manchester United in the season opener and he should be busy on the basis of recent tallies for opposition midfielders against Aston Villa.
Everton's Abdoulaye Doucouré had seven, Fred had four for Manchester United, while Brentford's Christian Nørgaard saw five. It's a busy area of the pitch and Koch should be heavily involved if he starts there.
With the odds available, backing KOCH and STRUIJK in the tackles markets looks two solid plays.
Aston Villa v Leeds best bets and score prediction
- 1.5pts Pascal Struijk to have 3+ tackles at 13/8 (Sky Bet)
- 1pt Robin Koch to have 3+ tackles at 12/5 (Ladbrokes)
Score prediction: Aston Villa 1-1 Leeds (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Odds correct at 1430 GMT (08/02/21)
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