Steven Gerrard's in-form Aston Villa host an out-of-sorts Chelsea on Boxing Day evening, and Jake Osgathorpe thinks this game could spell more trouble for the Blues.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1.5pts Under 2.5 Goals at 10/11 (bet365)
Steven Gerrard's appointment at Aston Villa is already bearing fruit, with the Villains winning four of their six matches under the Liverpool legend, losing only to Manchester City and his former side.
Defensively, they have been excellent, allowing more than 1.30 xGA in just one game since the managerial change, which came at Anfield against the best attacking team in the country.
If we exclude that match, which could prove to be a one-off, Villa have allowed just 0.89 xGA per game, a staggeringly impressive figure that suggests they could limit Chelsea here.
Kick-off time: 17:30 GMT, Sunday
TV Channel: Sky Sports Premier League
Aston Villa 17/4 | Draw 11/4 | Chelsea 4/6
However, they are yet to find fluidity in forward areas, though there is sign of progress. Using the same sample, Villa have averaged 1.20 xGF per game, so chances at either end are limited when Gerrard's side take the field.
Chelsea have won one of their past four, a run that has seen them slip to third in the Premier League table.
Thomas Tuchel's side have differing problems at home and away.
At Stamford Bridge, chance creation is impressive but they fail to take their opportunities, averaging 3.11 xGF per game over their last three but scoring just 1.67 goals per game.
On the road, the chances have dried up altogether. In their last three road trips the Blues have generated 1.09 xGF per game, scoring 1.33 per game.
Data suggests their away form is seeing them being left behind by Manchester City and Liverpool, something that doesn't bode well over a 38-game season.
City are averaging +1.52 xGD per away game, with Liverpool at +1.38. Chelsea are currently operating at +0.47. That's a huge difference.
Defensively they have been consistent both home and away this term (1.11 xGA per game), so they should be able to limit Villa.
But with their attacking issues and lack of supremacy on their travels compared to their title rivals, we can expect a low-scoring game, making UNDER 2.5 GOALS an appealing selection.
Opposing Chelsea is a smart play here given their on-field and off-field issues, but taking the Under 2.5 Goals bet does give us some security should the Blues eek out a 1-0 win - which wouldn't surprise anyone.
Aston Villa v Chelsea best bet and score prediction
- 1.5pts Under 2.5 Goals at 10/11 (bet365)
Score prediction: Aston Villa 1-1 Chelsea (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Odds correct at 1620 GMT (23/12/21)
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