Upwardly-mobile Aston Villa host struggling Burnley at Villa Park on Saturday. Michael Beardmore provides the preview and his best bets.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Aston Villa to win and Under 3.5 Goals at 6/4 (General)
0.5pt Ollie Watkins to be shown a card at 10/1 (bet365)
There's time yet for things to change but Aston Villa will probably be enjoying a deserved claret or two over the festive period while Burnley are facing a blue, blue, blue Christmas.
Only weeks after being right in the thick of the relegation battle, Aston Villa have climbed into the top half of the Premier League table thanks to four wins in six games under new boss Steven Gerrard.
Even the two defeats they suffered were ones to take positives from - pushing reigning champions Manchester City all the way in a 2-1 home reverse and showing plenty of defensive resilience to limit free-scoring Liverpool to a 1-0 win last weekend.
Sean Dyche's Burnley, meanwhile, remain rooted in the bottom three, with just one win, against Brentford, to their name all season, with the division's second-worst (behind only Norwich) attacking process - according to expected goals - to blame.
Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
Aston Villa 7/10 | Draw 11/4 | Burnley 19/5
It's no surprise to see rejuvenated Villa odds-on to win this one at home and they simply must be backed to triumph against a visiting outfit that has not scored in its past three games.
Villa have beaten all of the sides they would have expected to since Gerrard took over, in the shape of Brighton, Crystal Palace and Norwich - as well as an impressive home win over Leicester - and this game fits firmly into that category.
Burnley, though, are nothing but dogged which gives us a nice window to boost the hosts from odds-on to odds-against, namely the 6/4 generally on offer for ASTON VILLA TO WIN AND UNDER 3.5 GOALS.
All six of Villa's games under Gerrard have featured three goals or fewer, while Burnley - who boast the top flight's seventh best defensive record - are hardly ever royally turned over: of their six defeats this term only the 3-1 loss at Everton featured more than three goals.
This game also sees two of the Premier League's most prolific card collectors collide with Burnley's 34 yellows in 15 games and Villa's 35 yellows and one red placing each in the top six of the ill-discipline table.
It's no surprise, therefore, that a plethora of players from both sides are 4/1 or shorter to enter the referee's notebook - but one price that does stand out is 10/1 on OLLIE WATKINS TO BE SHOWN A CARD.
That's surely far too large on a striker who has picked up three cautions already this campaign and can occasionally be wound up - an area of the dark arts that Burnley's back-line are specialists in.
Aston Villa v Burnley score prediction and best bets
- Aston Villa to win and Under 3.5 Goals at 6/4 (General)
- Ollie Watkins to be shown a card at 10/1 (bet365)
Score prediction: Aston Villa 2-0 Burnley (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Odds correct at 1415 GMT (16/12/21)
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