The enormity of this weekend’s game is beginning to sink in.
Arsenal travel to Stamford Bridge knowing that anything other than a win will almost certainly see them knocked off the top of the Premier League table with just one round of matches to go before the World Cup interlude, but to beat Chelsea would almost guarantee Arsenal can bask at the head of the table for an entire six-week period, capped by being top at Christmas for the first time since 2007.
These symbolic milestones are vital to battling the psychological weight that hangs around the Emirates, to battling the instinctive pessimism of a title challenge against this imperious Manchester City side.
But if there is one team who can do it, then it’s probably the one managed by a Pep Guardiola protégé whose summer was spent signing as many Man City players as he could.
Arsenal are City 2.0
Arteta really is a chip off the old block.
During the first two-and-a-half years of his Arsenal tenure we thought he was finding a different path as the overly-structured patterns in early 2020 – cagey, suffocating, a Guardiola cosplay – gave way to an improvisational feel with sharper attacking football in 2020/21.
Even last year, when some of the patterns came back and Arsenal emerged from the edge of crisis, the formation changes and the transitional speed we saw from Emile Smith Rowe and Bukayo Saka suggested a marked difference to his mentor.
It turns out it was just a variety of sticking plasters, a trial-and-error approach to problem solving until he had the Guardiola players (literally, players who had been trained by Pep) to complete the jigsaw and begin to emulate the perfect triangles, the pitch-length rondos, and the exacting positional structuring taught to him by Guardiola.
The measured control Arsenal are finding in matches has been the result of Arteta finally finding balance across his starting XI.
In midfield, Granit Xhaka’s repositioning as an eight alongside Martin Odegaard (mimicking the Ilkay Gundogan and Kevin de Bruyne partnership) has provided Arsenal with tactical and technical brilliance in this crucial area of the field, although it is the calm distribution of a new centre-back partnership of William Saliba and Gabriel Magalhaes that has really made Arsenal turn a corner.
They might not be flawless defensively – no team has made more errors leading to an opposition shot than Arsenal’s eight, per Fbref – but their team underlying numbers are excellent, and the passing of the duo is exceptional.
Saliba and Gabriel have touched the ball more times than any of their team-mates this season, while a look at the ‘touches’ ranking for the entire division, ten other clubs feature a midfielder on the list before we get to Arsenal and Xhaka. The metronomic order comes from these two.
Jesus a gamechanger for Gunners
Higher up the pitch, it is the introduction of Gabriel Jesus that has changed things offensively and defensively.
His work-rate in the press is setting the tone that puts Arsenal tied third in the Premier League for tackles made in the final third (36) and has become the cornerstone of their defending, a structure that sees the likes of Xhaka and Thomas Partey squeeze space in uncompromising high positions where last season they would be caught scrambling across huge midfield gaps.
On the ball, Jesus’s presence has added urgency and directness to Arsenal’s possession. He is second among all Premier League players for attempted dribbles (55) and fouls drawn (32) and is top of the charts for progressive passes received (94), reflecting his movement and driving presence at the top.
Suddenly there is a vertical option and a reliable one at that, helping to engage Gabriel Martinelli and Bukayo Saka to release their speed in the final third.
Again, mimicking the Man City Arteta helped to coach, Arsenal’s left winger brings Raheem Sterling-like raw verticality in the dribble while the right winger offers Bernardo Silva-like craft of the sort that dove-tails neatly with the Kevin de Bruyne/Odegaard playmaker leaning out to the right side.
It is no surprise that Martinelli has completed the second most dribbles (25) in the Premier League this season and Saka the second most shot-creating actions (12), just behind De Bruyne.
It has created a system virtually without flaws, in theory at least. In reality we are increasingly seeing moments of weakness as fatigue from the Europa League campaign seeps in, most notably in the 1-1 draw with Southampton when Ralph Hasenhuttl’s deeper block gained control of the match once he moved to a back three.
Similarly in the 3-1 defeat to Manchester United it was the Solskjaer-esque deep block and counter-attacking strategy of Erik ten Hag that provided the basis for victory against a tired-looking Arsenal.
Lack of depth could prove costly
And in both matches a key player was missing.
Against United, two of the goals were the result of positional errors from Albert Lokonga that allowed Christian Eriksen and Bruno Fernandes to connect across the depth of midfield, while against Saints’ narrow blockade Arsenal badly missed the intelligence of interior full-back Oleksandar Zinchenko.
This is the crucial problem with Arsenal this season: beyond an excellent first 11 there just isn’t the depth required to play such complex Guardiola football without significant gaps appearing.
This is what will be on Arsenal fans’ minds when anticipating Sunday’s derby at Chelsea because Zinchenko remains sidelined and Saka is likely out after sustaining a foot injury in the 5-0 victory over Nottingham Forest.
Reiss Nelson’s surprise success as a substitute last weekend perhaps alleviates fear but there is a reason he has not played until now; the intricacy of Arteta’s positional coaching requires perfection in the press, and without Saka there is the very real danger that Chelsea will be more effective in their implementation of Potter-ball.
Then again, Chelsea’s 4-1 defeat to Brighton showed that Graham Potter’s advanced tactical setups require just as much time as Arteta’s to take hold, and should the Arsenal manager attack and press with the same bravery as Roberto de Zerbi’s Brighton then Chelsea will no doubt be vulnerable.
But Arsenal’s away form is slipping, with just one goal scored and four points won in their last three on the road – a run that only accentuates the importance of the Emirates finding its voice this season.
To maintain an unlikely challenge with Man City, Arsenal need to stop the habit and need to find consistency even without one or two key players.
Chelsea at Stamford Bridge is a pivotal moment in their season, a test of their metal and their one and only shot at being top of the Premier League during the World Cup.
Six weeks of pride, self-confidence, and proof of talent. That’s what’s at stake on Sunday.
