Football betting tips: Carabao Cup
1pt A sending off in the match at 9/2 (Sky Bet, Betfair)
1.5pt Enzo Fernandez to be carded at 11/4 (Sky Bet)
1pt Martin Zubimendi to be carded at 10/3 (bet365)
0.75pt Riccardo Calafiori to score anytime at 9/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
0.5pt Fernandez and Zubimendi to be carded at 14/1 (bet365)
0.25pt Marc Cucurella, Fernandez and Zubimendi all to be carded at 40/1 (bet365)
The first leg of this Carabao Cup semi-final was a thrilling one. Five goals, 27 shots, 11 on target and seven cards.
We head to the Emirates with the tie finely poised, with Arsenal holding a slender 3-2 advantage over a Chelsea side who have started life well under Liam Rosenior, winning six of his first seven with the only loss coming in the first leg.
The Blues have scored a lot of goals since the managerial switch too, 19 in seven games, so will back themselves to create enough to turn the tie around, though their defensive fragility remains a serious problem.
Arsenal are 4/6 favourites to win on the night and 1/9 to qualify, which tells us the bookies really don't give Chelsea much of a chance.
This will be a niggly game and I suspect cards will flow, especially with Peter Bankes overseeing proceedings. He's dished out 4.3 cards per game so far this term, but has interestingly refereed Chelsea three times and shown 20 cards including three reds, so we simply have to back A SENDING OFF IN THE MATCH at 9/2.
Bankes has shown Chelsea red twice in his three contests so there could be some needle from the off between him and the players which only helps this bet, as do the stakes of the contest with it being a semi-final of a cup competition.
The Blues' games this season have been red-card heavy anyway, with 11 of their 31 games this season seeing this bet land, including the league meeting between these two teams back in November.
We'll also back ENZO FERNANDEZ and MARTIN ZUBIMENDI TO BE CARDED as singles at 11/4 and 10/3 respectively.
Fernandez has been carded nine times across all competitions this season at an average of 0.29 per 90 which would imply a blanket price of around 5/2 before we factor in the card-happy ref and the increased stakes and desperation of the game.
Zubimendi has picked up seven cards this season across all competitions, averaging 0.24 per 90 making his price also huge value given everything discussed, and the fact he'll be under the pump regularly from tricky players as Chelsea go all-out attack.
We'll combine the two in a CARD DOUBLE at 14/1, and we'll also back the pair alongside MARC CUCURELLA in a 40/1 treble, who has been booked eight times this season already, with two of those coming against the Gunners. He has in fact been booked in five of his last six games against Arsenal.
Granted Bukayo Saka had a lot to do with that, so the fact he is injured is a concern, but Noni Madueke is as direct and slippery as Saka, and he will still have Jurrien Timber or Ben White overlapping, two excellent foul-drawing right-backs.
Finally, we have to try and back something Arsenal set-piece related. The Gunners, or just 'Set-piece FC' at this point, continue to excel in this area of the game, scoring a whopping 28 goals from dead-ball situations in just 37 games across all competitions this term.
It is a huge strength that they lean on constantly, and Chelsea have issues defending them, so it really is a mismatch. In the first leg, Arsenal scored from a corner through Ben White, with Gabriel also having a really good chance (0.24 xG).
Since Rosenior has been appointed, the Blues have conceded three goals from set-pieces in five games against English teams, conceding an average of 0.73 xGA per game from such situations, so we really should expect Arsenal to create a fair few chances from corners and free-kicks here.
Unfortunately for us, the main protagonist Gabriel is priced at 11/2 to score anytime which is extremely stingy, and 7/1 to score a header. The 4/5 about him having a headed shot (Sky Bet) rates much better value.
But, for me RICCARDO CALAFIORI TO SCORE ANYTIME rates the best bet at 9/1, though comes with the caveat that he may not start - in which case cash out.
The Italian has been eased back in since returning from injury, given 45 minutes against Kairat Almaty last week before a sub appearance against Leeds, and I'm hoping it's to keep him fresh for this one.
Calafiori has scored once already this season but should have more, and he is a consistent threat, averaging 1.68 shots per 90 across all comps, which is a big plus, as is his xG per 90 of 0.16.
Let's hope he gets the nod, as I really think he'll get a few good chances in this contest, even from open play.
Odds correct at 14:15 GMT (29/01/26)
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