We have a huge title clash to look forward to on Wednesday night, as Arsenal take on Manchester City. Jake Osgathorpe previews the game, selecting his best bets.
Football betting tips: Premier League
2pts Under 2.5 Goals at 21/20 (BetUK)
1.5pts Arsenal to win Draw no Bet at 11/10 (General)
0.5pt Ruben Dias to score anytime at 30/1 (Unibet)
What a huge game this is. How huge you ask? Well, based on the Infogol probabilities, the winner of this game will have a greater than 63% chance of winning the Premier League title.
A draw would leave it on a knife edge, with both sides having a 49% chance of reigning supreme.
So, there is a whole lot at stake as the two best teams in the country meet for the first time in the Premier League. We did see the pair go head-to-head at the Etihad in the FA Cup a few weeks ago, and that game was extremely cagey.
It finished 1-0 to City, with the xG in that game being 0.51 - 0.35. Defences were on top, and neither team wanted to take too many chances and risk being exposed.
Kick-off time: 19:30 GMT, Wednesday
TV channel: Amazon Prime Video
Arsenal 19/10 | Draw 5/2 | Man City 13/10
Given the stakes are even higher here, I fully expect something similar again. A tactical chess match that sees both teams cancel each other out.
Therefore, UNDER 2.5 GOALS has to make the staking plan.
This contest sees the second-ranked home defensive team (Arsenal - 0.90 xGA per game) taking on the best-ranked travelling defensive team (Man City - 1.09 xGA per game) go head-to-head, which is great starting point for this bet.
Additionally, City's away matches against the 'big six' this season have been revealing to say the least.
Three of the four have gone Under 1.5 Goals, with only the defeat at Old Trafford breaching the 2.5 line.
Interestingly, City have only scored twice themselves in those four contests, and have averaged just 1.16 xGF per game - an incredibly low total for Pep Guardiola's side.
For context, in their six away games versus 'the rest', they have averaged 2.35 xGF per game.
Add in the fact that this feels like a must-not-lose game for both - Arsenal could fall apart should City win, while the gap could be too big for City if Arsenal win - and a cagey, low-scoring affair between the league's best sides appeals.
It will be tight, but I do think Arsenal are too big a price, and ARSENAL WIN DRAW NO BET does represent a value bet in my book.
Taking the Draw No Bet option obviously gives us security with money back if the game ends all square, but even with that we are still seeing odds-against quotes.
Yes, Arsenal haven't won since they were beaten by City in the FA Cup, and yes, they were beaten on xG by a margin wider than 0.1 for the first time at the Emirates last time out against Brentford, but the body of work we have seen from them in front of their home fans this term suggests they should be a fair bit shorter here.
The Gunners have averaged 2.34 xGF and 0.90 xGA per home game, with that process (+1.44 xGD/game) second only to City (1.67) this season.
Arsenal have won all three of their home matches against the 'big six', beating Tottenham, Liverpool and Manchester United, averaging 2.69 xGF and 0.90 xGA across those clashes. The big occasions have brought out the best in them.
Throw in City's away record against the 'big six' this season, which reads W1 L3, and their negative xGD per game across those fixtures (-0.36), and it becomes clear that Arsenal are overpriced here - they simply should be shorter.
A final selection in this preview is a bit of a dart. We've been close with such darts of late.
Joe Willock - put up at 15/2 to score anytime - had a goal ruled out in the opening minute when tipped, and James Tarkowski - put up at 30/1 - hit the post in the Merseyside derby.
We go again with another 30/1 pop, this time taking RUBEN DIAS TO SCORE ANYTIME.
Arsenal have now conceded twice in two games from set-piece situations, one to a centre-back (Tarkowski), which perhaps suggests teams are targeting the Gunners from dead-balls.
Everton and Brentford caused so many issues, racking up 0.52 and 1.23 xG respectively from set-pieces alone, and while Manchester City aren't of that same ilk, we did see them cause a physically imposing Aston Villa team a lot of problems with some synchronised and pre-planned routines from corners.
Rodri was the beneficiary, scoring from a corner, but City had five shots in total from set-piece situations. I suspect the Citizens have a package of set-plays drawn up ready for this game, and we know Dias is a monster in the air.
He has averaged 0.11 xG/95 this season, which is impressive for a defender, and last season he was at 0.12. The Portuguese centre-back notched twice in the league last term.
Odds of 30/1 are insulting for a man who is so dominant in the air, and for comparison, Aymeric Laporte is available at 20/1 despite averaging fewer xG/95 (0.09). There might not be many goals on Wednesday night, but don't be shocked if Dias pops up with one of them.
Arsenal v Manchester City best bets and score prediction
- 2pts Under 2.5 Goals at 21/20 (BetUK)
- 1.5pts Arsenal to win Draw no Bet at 11/10 (General)
- 0.5pt Ruben Dias to score anytime at 30/1 (Unibet)
Correct score: Arsenal 1-1 Manchester City (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Odds correct at 1315 GMT (14/02/23)
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