Liam Kelly previews Manchester City's trip to face Arsenal at the Emirates, expecting the good times to keep rolling for the away side.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1.5pts Manchester City to win and Under 3.5 Goals in the match at 8/5 (bet365, Coral, Ladbrokes)
Mikel Arteta and some of his backroom staff will be absent as Arsenal try to maintain their excellent form against the best team in the Premier League.
City enter this match-up on 10-game win streak in the league, brushing aside the competition with relative ease to build an eight-point cushion at the top, scoring 31 goals and conceding just six in those fixtures.
Kick-off time: 12:30 GMT, Saturday
TV Channel: BT Sport 1
Arsenal 5/1 | Draw 18/5 | Manchester City 1/2
Given their current form, it's a surprise to see Manchester City available at longer than 1/2 in places, the biggest price we've seen since their trip to city rivals United, which came off the back of a home loss to Crystal Palace.
That was the start of their incredible run, one which has seen Pep Guardiola's dominant side average 2.69 expected goals for (xGF) and 0.67 expected goals against (xGA) per game.
The 2.59 xG that City conceded while comfortably ahead in a 6-3 victory over Leicester on Boxing Day is a massive outlier in their defensive numbers, too, with Pep's side fairly impenetrable recently.
Granted, Arsenal have been very impressive after a rough start to the campaign, but City are simply on a different level to any other side in the Premier League at the moment.
So it's a good idea to get the away team onside at the prices, but 1/2 isn't quite juicy enough. MANCHESTER CITY TO WIN AND UNDER 3.5 GOALS IN THE MATCH, on the other hand, makes appeal at 8/5.
The level of Manchester City's chance limitation has been discussed, and it's possible we could see a similar performance to their trip to Brentford in midweek (xG: BRE 0.28 - 1.09 MCI) — methodical and calculated.
Especially as Arsenal have been outstanding at home since a loss against Chelsea in the very early parts of the season.
Since that match-up, the Gunners have allowed an average of 0.69 xGA per game at the Emirates. Admittedly, none of the teams are of the same calibre as City, but it does show the improvements Arteta has made.
Arsenal lost 5-0 at City immediately after that Chelsea match (xG: MCI 4.22 - 0.13 ARS), suffering greatly after being reduced to 10-men early, but there's plenty of reason to believe they can put in a respectable display here.
It's difficult to envisage anything other than an away win, though, even more so with the lack of leadership that might befall Arsenal with the unavailability of staff.
It should be a fair amount closer than the reverse fixture in August, however.
Arsenal v Manchester City best bets and score prediction
- 1.5pts Manchester City to win and Under 3.5 Goals in the match at 8/5 (bet365, Coral, Ladbrokes)
Score prediction: Arsenal 0-2 Manchester City (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Odds correct at 1530 GMT (30/12/21)
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