Arsenal v Liverpool tips: Premier League best bets and preview
Premier League leaders Arsenal face arguably their stiffest test of the season to date as they host Liverpool on Sunday. Jake Osgathorpe has the best bets.
Football betting tips: Premier League
2pts Arsenal to win Draw no Bet at 10/11 (Betfred)
1pt Trent Alexander-Arnold to be carded at 9/2 (General)
I have to say, I'm not quite on the 'Arsenal are title contenders' bandwagon just yet, but I do find myself wanting to get the Gunners onside against a top-level opponent - something I never thought would happen.
But, here we are, with Mikel Arteta's side in a great spot, and at home, against a Liverpool team who do look particularly vulnerable.
We could see a statement performance and result from Arsenal that does make people sit up and take notice.
Kick-off time: 16:30 BST, Sunday
TV channel: Sky Sports Premier League
Arsenal 6/4 | Draw 13/5 | Liverpool 8/5
My favourite play of the game is ARSENAL TO WIN DRAW NO BET, which is a shade of odds on.
There are four reasons for this.
Firstly, Arsenal in general have looked legit this season, winning seven of eight, but interestingly, the Gunners have won the xG battle in all eight contests.
That consistent level is impressive, and only Manchester City can match that record.
Secondly, this game comes at the Emirates, which has become a fortress for Arsenal.
Since the start of last season (23 games), Arteta's men have averaged a fantastic 2.29 xGF and 1.01 xGA per game, underlying numbers touching those we see from City and Saturday's opponents Liverpool when playing in front of their own fans.
Thirdly, Liverpool are incredibly vulnerable defensively right now.
Don't let a clean sheet and a convincing win over a sorry Rangers team fool you, Jurgen Klopp's men are gettable like never before in defence.
Brighton racked up over 2.0+ xG at Anfield last weekend, with the most alarming thing being that the Seagulls took just six shots, meaning the average shot Liverpool conceded had an xG of 0.34. That is staggeringly bad.
Fourthly, the Reds have looked weak on the road, winless in all four away games across the Premier League and Champions League.
They have created chances in those contests, but have allowed a huge 1.55 xGA per away game domestically, while conceding a whopping 4.80 xGA in a shocking display away at Napoli.
More concerning is the fact that, domestically, their away games have been against Fulham and Everton - two teams expected to be in a relegation battle - and a transitioning Manchester United side who had been well-beaten in their opening league games.
All of that means I have to get Arsenal onside. The only reasons I'm taking the Draw no Bet option instead of straight win is, well, this is Arsenal and Liverpool we are talking about.
The Gunners have the ability to completely bottle and disappoint when expected to do well, while Liverpool have the individual quality to turn up for a big occasion and make a mockery of their current odds.
But, given the way both sides have played so far this season, taking Arsenal to win with the security of money back should the game end all square makes most appeal.
I also like the look of backing TRENT ALEXANDER-ARNOLD TO BE CARDED here.
It has been well documented that the England full-back is a weak-link in the defensive line for Liverpool, as my colleague Liam Kelly highlighted in his column this week, and I think Mikel Arteta will be targeting him here, especially given the strength of Arsenal's left side.
Gabriel Martinelli is a handful who is extremely direct with the ball, and the same can be said for Gabriel Jesus, who likes to drift into Arsenal's left hand channel to create an overload.
Alexander-Arnold will have to deal with both of them on Sunday, and whether Klopp opts to play the 4-2-4 that he deployed against Rangers in midweek or his traditional 4-3-3, I think the Liverpool right-back will get exposed at some point.
Already with two cards to his name - from just five fouls, which highlights the cynicality of his play - the 9/2 for Trent to make it into the referee's book looks a decent price.
Arsenal v Liverpool score prediction and best bets
- 2pts Arsenal to win Draw no Bet at 10/11 (Betfred)
- 1pt Trent Alexander-Arnold to be carded at 9/2 (General)
Score prediction: Arsenal 2-1 Liverpool (Sky Bet odds: 17/2)
Odds correct 1500 BST (06/10/22)
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