Liam Kelly previews Arsenal's hosting of relegation-threatened Burnley at the Emirates, expecting the Gunners to fire back after the midweek cup exit.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1.5pts Arsenal to win to nil at 23/20 (BetVictor)
1pt Gabriel Martinelli to score anytime at 7/5 (General)
Arsenal enter this game looking to put the disappointment of a Carabao Cup semi-final exit in the rear-view, beaten soundly by Liverpool in the second leg on Thursday night.
Motivation for this match should be simple, though, with the Gunners firmly in the Champions League qualification fight, sitting sixth in the Premier League with a favourable fixture this weekend.
Opponents Burnley are bottom of the table, albeit with games in hand, playing just two league games since December 12th after postponements.
Kick-off time: 14:00 GMT, Sunday
Arsenal 1/3 | Draw 19/5 | Burnley 9/1
It remains to be seen what selection issues Sean Dyche has to deal with, but a full-strength Burnley would have trouble at the Emirates if this season's form is anything to go by.
The Clarets are struggling to create chances, scoring just 16 goals in 17 Premier League games - averaging only 1.17 expected goals for (xGF) per game across those matches.
Chris Wood's departure only exacerbates the problem, leaving for relegation rivals Newcastle in the transfer window.
Burnley's other main bright spark this term, Maxwel Cornet, remains in the Ivory Coast squad for AFCON duty, so it's difficult to see the visitors testing Arsenal's defence.
ARSENAL TO WIN TO NIL makes appeal at odds-against (23/20) then, even allowing for the immediate midfield crisis in North London, with the Gunners welcoming back other important personnel in midweek.
After all, Mikel Arteta's side boast an incredibly impressive record as hosts.
They've collected 22 points from a possible 30 at the Emirates this season, only losing to Manchester City and Chelsea and averaging 2.07 xGF and 1.10 expected goals against (xGA) per game at home.
If we remove those two games against better opposition, Arteta's men average 2.40 xGF and 0.69 xGA per game, displaying the ability to dominate teams at home who are on a par or inferior to Arsenal.
Another price of interest is the widely available 7/5 for GABRIEL MARTINELLI TO SCORE ANYTIME.
Martinelli was clearly marked as Arsenal's chief danger by Liverpool on Thursday night, doubled up in most cases, and Jürgen Klopp's post-match comments contained a glowing reference for the Brazilian.
Averaging 0.46 xG per 95 minutes (average match) in the league this season, Martinelli has readily shown he can get into scoring positions or create chances for himself. Against a Burnley side that don't really have the resources to focus on his threat, the 20-year-old can shine.
Arsenal v Burnley best bets and score prediction
- 1.5pts Arsenal to win to nil at 23/20 (BetVictor)
- 1pt Gabriel Martinelli to score anytime at 7/5 (General)
Score prediction: Arsenal 2-0 Burnley (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
Odds correct at 1200 GMT (21/01/22)
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