Arsenal v Aston Villa tips: Premier League best bets and preview
Aston Villa make the trip down to London to take on Arsenal in Friday Night Football. Jake Pearson has previewed the match, picking out his best bet and score prediction.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1.5pts Aston Villa most cards at 7/5 (bet365)
Arsenal probably won’t be too impressed with a Monday-Friday turnaround in terms of Premier League fixtures, but that should still be plenty of time for Mikel Arteta to focus his side after their 2-2 draw against Crystal Palace on Monday evening.
It is difficult to judge exactly what the mood in the Gunners dressing room will be following that match, a last-minute Alexandre Lacazette goal earing Arsenal a draw, but does sharing the points at home to Crystal Palace constitute a good result, particularly having taken the lead?
If Arteta’s Arsenal have any real ambition about them then the answer to that question must be no. However the game went, and Palace were impressive for large spells, Arsenal must view that as two points dropped.
What is does mean though, is that Arsenal remain unbeaten in their last six matches, and though two have been draws, is does show a resilient streak that the Gunners have certainly been lacking for a number of years.
Kick-off time: 20:00 BST, Friday
TV channel: Sky Sports Main Event
Arsenal 10/11 | Draw 13/5 | Aston Villa 29/10
There are signs of life in Arteta’s Arsenal, though sometimes is does feel a little like for every step forward they take, they take two back.
Defence has been a huge positive for Arsenal this season, Gabriel and Ben White looking to have formed a formidable partnership, but both Palace’s goals came from an individual error, the first from Gabriel and the second from White; avoidable mistakes that will have their Spanish manager tearing his perfect hair out.
It is tough to know exactly which Arsenal are going to turn up, but then again, the same can be said about their opponents Aston Villa, who are currently as point and a place behind the Gunners in 13th position.
It is time to move on from the Jack Grealish era, and given the signings they have made, and the time Dean Smith has now had to work with his new players, the excuses are drying up.
For all the perception that Aston Villa have struggled going forward this term, they are actually averaging a higher goal-per-game ratio than they did last term, and for all their chance creation is lower this season, their average shots-per-game tally is only slightly below what it was last term – averaging only one shot-per-game fewer than league-leaders Chelsea.
Obviously, the quality of those shots and the positions from which they are being taken is important – with their average shots-on-target much lower this season – but that is certainly rectifiable given they are still working shooting positions. There is still plenty of hope for Villa.
Find value in more niche markets
Despite this game being quite an interesting one, betting in the traditional markets makes little appeal, with both sides now priced up about right, while the goal line also looks correct.
In fact, it is a difficult game to predict in many senses, but digging through the stats the main thing that stuck out was the stark difference between these two sides in terms of the amount of yellow cards their games have seen so far this season.
Arsenal matches have seen the third-fewest cautions this season, averaging 2.5 per match, while Aston Villa games are averaging 4.5, the joint-most in the division.
This doesn’t help much in assessing the card line for the game, but it does give us an insight into the different kind of intensities with which both teams play.
It is worth digging a little deeper into the individual matches involving these two as well as, while Arsenal have recorded more yellow cards than their opponents in three of their nine matches, one of those was against Tottenham in the North London derby, and the other two were against Chelsea and Manchester City, superior teams.
Burnley, Brighton and Norwich all saw yellow more times than Arsenal in their respective fixtures, teams of a similar ilk to Aston Villa.
Aston Villa are averaging more than two yellows per game this season, more than Arsenal’s 1.38 per match, and given only Watford and Southampton have committed more fouls per game this season than Villa, as well as the fact that only three sides have committed fewer than Arsenal, it is surprising that bet365 are 7/5 about ASTON VILLA TO BE SHOWN MORE CARDS, with Arsenal also at 7/5.
Other firms are shorter, around 6/5, with some closer to even money, though all have Villa the favourites in this market.
Arsenal v Aston Villa best bets and score prediction
- 1.5pts Aston Villa most cards at 7/5 (bet365)
Score prediction: Arsenal 1-1 Aston Villa (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Odds correct at 1610 BST (20/10/21)
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