Football betting tips: Wednesday best bets
1pt Atalanta to beat Barcelona and Marco Carnesecchi card at 25/1 (William Hill)
1.5pts Florian Wirtz to score anytime in Leverkusen vs Sparta at 6/5 (bet365)
0.5pt Wirtz to score 2+ goals at 6/1 (bet365, Sky Bet)
2.5pts Leverkusen to win to nil at 20/23 (BetVictor)
1.5pts Michael Olise to score anytime in Bayern vs Slovan at evens (Sky Bet)
0.5pt Olise to score 2+ goals at 11/2 (Sky Bet)
2pts Kylian Mbappe to score anytime in Brest vs Real Madrid at 5/6 (Sky Bet, bet365)
0.5pt Mbappe to score 2+ goals at 9/2 (Sky Bet)
1pt Monaco to beat Inter and Radoslaw Majecki card at 40/1 (bet365)
1pt Benfica to beat Juventus and Anatoliy Trubin card at 22/1 (bet365)
1.5pts Julian Alvarez to score anytime in Salzburg vs Atletico Madrid at 23/20 (Sky Bet, bet365)
0.5pt Alvarez to score 2+ goals at 6/1 (Sky Bet, Paddy Power, Betfair)
2pts Atletico Madrid -1 handicap at 21/20 (William Hill)
*All games kick off 20:00 GMT, Wednesday
Further tips may follow
Barcelona vs Atalanta
- TV: TNT Sports (Press Red)
- Home 7/10 | Draw 16/5 | Away 3/1
Jimmy 'The Punt' Cantrill
The new Champions League format is about to reach its group stage conclusion and with it comes plenty of betting opportunities.
With 17 games all kicking off at the same time on Wednesday evening it is easy to get in a muddle, so I have tried to simplify it with a keeper card checklist to provide a low-risk, high reward betting strategy to cheer on.
- Away team which needs to win
- Referee with good keeper card record
- Time wasting keeper
Michael Oliver is the whistleblower at Camp Nou and he’s booked five keepers this term.
Barcelona have already secured a top eight spot. ATALANTA’s fate is in their own hands and a win guarantees them a top eight finish.
The Italians have been impressive on the road in Europe, winning each of their last three games, scoring 11 times and only conceding three.
Although it is a mammoth task, backing them TO WIN alongside their keeper MARCO CARNESECCHI TO BE CARDED is worth a poke.
Carnesecchi does not have the best track record for cards (180 games, six yellows and one red) but none of his European appearances have had this level of jeopardy before.
Odds correct at 1620 GMT (28/01/25)
Bayer Leverkusen vs Sparta Prague
- TV: Discovery+
- Home 1/9 | Draw 15/2 | Away 16/1
Jake Osgathorpe
BAYER LEVERKUSEN need a win, and potentially a big one, to make sure of a top-eight spot and automatic qualification for the last 16; Xabi Alonso's side can get just that against Sparta Prague, and they can WIN TO NIL at 20/23.
Leverkusen are yet to concede at home in the Champions League this season, allowing 0.53 xGA per home game. Sparta have generated just 0.63 xGF per away game in and are already eliminated.
They have been whacked 5-0 by Manchester City and 6-0 by Atletico Madrid already, so Leverkusen could rack up a score here, making FLORIAN WIRTZ's price of 6/5 TO SCORE ANYTIME appeal.
The Germany forward is his side's leading scorer in this competition with five, with his xG per 90 average of 0.51 extremely impressive.
We'll also back WIRTZ TO SCORE 2+ at 6/1 as well. He's fired five braces this season already, including two in this competition in games against poor opponents Feyenoord and Salzburg, both big wins for Leverkusen.
Odds correct at 1400 GMT (27/01/25)
Bayern Munich vs Slovan Bratislava
- TV: TNT Sports 7
- Home 1/100 | Draw 25/1 | Away 80/1
Jake Osgathorpe
Bayern Munich need a minor miracle to finish in the top eight. They sit 15th in the standings and need to win alongside six results going their way.
Vincent Kompany's side are as short as 1/125 to win with the Asian handicap set at -4.25, meaning the men with the money expect Bayern to win by five goals.
A dip into the goalscorer market could bear fruit and it's MICHAEL OLISE who looks the best value TO SCORE ANYTIME at even money.
The Frenchman has an xG per 90 of 0.85 and a goals per 90 of 0.80, while he's firing 4.21 shots per 90 and 1.40 shots on target per 90, so we should get a run for our money. Considering Harry Kane is a staggering best price of 1/4 with an xG per 90 of 0.96 and a goals per 90 of 0.83, Olise rates a cracking bet.
So far in the UCL, Olise has taken advantage of the two worst teams he's faced, netting a BRACE against both Dinamo Zagreb in a 9-2 rout and Shakhtar Donetsk in a 5-1 thrashing, so it's worth covering him to score 2+ GOALS again.
Slovan Bratislava represent the worst defensive team in the competition, conceding the most goals (24) and the most xGA (2.56 per game).
They have conceded at least three times in six of their seven outings.
Odds correct at 1425 GMT (27/01/25)
Brest vs Real Madrid
- TV: TNT Sports 6
- Home 6/1 | Draw 4/1 | Away 4/11
Jake Osgathorpe
Brest and Real Madrid look set to be jockeying for position and prize money, with teams earning an extra €275,000 per place. That may be a drop in the ocean for the holders and 15-time winners, but moving up a few spots could be a big deal for Brest. As could the €2.1m for a win here.
The French underdogs can still make it into the top eight, although they need to win and see a lot of other results go their way; it's the same for Madrid.
On the face of it, Brest have been very good defensively in this competition, conceding just eight times in seven matches and allowing 1.42 xGA per game, but, the schedule has to be taken into account. They've been fortunate taking on four of the bottom 10 and PSV, alongside stronger sides Barcelona and Leverkusen.
Barca managed three goals and 2.86 xGF against Brest, so an in-form Real should have no issues creating chances.
Carlo Ancelotti's men have won 10 of their last 13 in all competitions, only losing to Barca in the Super Cup, scoring 42 goals at an average of 3.23 per game.
KYLIAN MBAPPE has hit a purple patch, and looks overpriced at 5/6 TO SCORE ANYTIME.
Madrid's number nine has found the net in nine of his last 12 and all of his last five, including a hat-trick last weekend.
He only has three goals in this season's Champions League but has an xG per 90 average of 0.97, so will be on the end of plenty of chances here so, again, we'll back him TO SCORE A BRACE.
He's scored 2+ goals in two of his last three appearances and recorded 17 braces or hat-tricks since the start of last season.
Odds correct at 1435 GMT (27/01/25)
Inter vs Monaco
- TV: TNT Sports (Press Red)
- Home 3/5 | Draw 3/1 | Away 4/1
Jimmy 'The Punt' Cantrill
MONACO head to San Siro needing a big performance if they are going to sneak into the top eight.
They start the evening in 10th, level on points with Bayer Leverkusen, but could finish above opponents Inter in 4th if they win by a two goal margin.
Referee Irfan Peljto has booked one keeper for time wasting in five Champions League appearances this term.
Monaco’s keeper RADOSLAW MAJECKI has one card this season for time wasting and seven bookings in his career. Combining him TO BE CARDED with his side TO WIN appeals especially as Inter might have an eye on Sunday’s Milan Derby.
Odds correct at 1620 GMT (28/01/25)
Juventus vs Benfica
- TV: Discovery+
- Home 11/10 | Draw 9/4 | Away 12/5
Jimmy 'The Punt' Cantrill
My favourite angle comes from Turin where the playoff places are on the line for both sides.
Juventus are guaranteed a spot in the knockout stages but are a point off the top eight.
A point might not be enough for BENFICA but with their fate in their own hands, three points guarantees them a spot in the next round.
Istvan Kovacs is the referee, he has booked three keepers in 17 appearances this term and dished out a red in each of his last three games. Things could get tasty.
ANATOLIY TRUBIN is the visitors stopper. He only has four domestic cards but has three in 27 Champions League appearances.
Combining him TO BE CARDED alongside Benfica TO WIN appeals in a potential must win game for the visitors.
Odds correct at 1620 GMT (28/01/25)
Salzburg vs Atletico Madrid
- TV: Discovery+
- Home 7/1 | Draw 4/1 | Away 1/3
Jake Osgathorpe
Salzburg have been one of the whipping boys of the inaugural league phase, losing six of their seven matches with all of their defeats coming by at least two goals. That has me drawn straight to ATLETICO MADRID -1 HANDICAP at 21/20.
Diego Simeone's men need a win to guarantee a top-eight finish and head to Austria with their last away Champions League game being a 6-0 success at an equally poor Sparta Prague.
Salzburg have conceded the second-most goals in the UCL (23) and the second most xGA (2.47 per game), while Atleti have covered the required handicap in two of their three matches against sides of a similar calibre (6-0 vs Sparta, 3-1 vs Slovan).
With Atleti set to be among the goals, JULIAN ALVAREZ's 23/20 price TO SCORE ANYTIME appeals too.
The former Manchester City striker has found the net six times in this competition so far, including in all of his last three outings - with a BRACE in two of those matches, something we'll again be backing here.
Odds correct at 1435 GMT (27/01/25)
More from Sporting Life
- Super 6 tips: How is Jake getting on this season?
- Fixtures, results and live scores
- Expert xG analysis and features
- Transfer news and done deals
- Football and other sports tips
- Download our free iOS and Android app
- Podcasts and video content
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org
