Liam Kelly picks out a best bet for West Ham's Europa Conference League trip to Belgium, facing Anderlecht on Thursday.
Football betting tips: Europa Conference League
1pt Under 2.5 Goals at 19/20 (bet365)
West Ham head to Lotto Park in search of their third win from three games in Group B of the UECL. This one might be a tad more difficult than matches against FCSB and Silkeborg, however.
Anderlecht are the team looking to stop them, an admittedly declining giant of the Belgian game, but the Hammers will no doubt be tested away from home.
The bookmakers agree, with most setting West Ham at only a shade of odds-on.
Kick-off time: 17:45 BST, Thursday
TV channel: BT Sport 2
Anderlecht 13/5 | Draw 12/5 | West Ham 19/20
Match odds are one to stay away from in my eyes, with another popular market offering what I think is value. UNDER 2.5 GOALS in the game is of interest at 19/20.
Looking at the underlying data, West Ham have yet to impress from an attacking perspective this season.
David Moyes' side have scored just five times in eight league games, averaging a lowly 1.18 expected goals for (xGF) per game.
Granted, they've scored three in each of their Conference League games thus far, but the Hammers are finding it difficult to fashion scoring opportunities against even average domestic opposition.
They have improved defensively following a shaky start to the season, though.
West Ham have allowed four goals in their last five in the league, which includes games against Tottenham and Chelsea. Averaging 0.86 expected goals against (xGA) per game across that set of fixtures also bodes well for this bet.
Indeed, only one of their eight Premier League games has breached the 2.5 goals line, courtesy of a late Chelsea goal at Stamford Bridge, so to see unders set at just above a pick'em price is surprising.
With some squad rotation expected from West Ham, Anderlecht could prove a tough out in Belgium.
Anderlecht v West Ham score prediction and best bets
- 1pt Under 2.5 Goals at 19/20 (bet365)
Score prediction: Anderlecht 1-1 West Ham (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Odds correct 1230 BST (05/10/22)
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