- Alex Keble is a football journalist who specialises in tactical understanding, analysis and predictions of all aspects of the game.
Watkins' runs v Højlund's runs
- Aston Villa vs Man Utd
- Sky Sports Main Event: Sunday, 16:30 GMT
- Home 23/20 | Draw 11/4 | Away 21/10
Manchester United’s 3-2 victory over Aston Villa was a huge moment in the Erik ten Hag project, and Sunday’s headline game could be even more exciting than that one.
Since then, United have found their feet in the attacking line, with Marcus Rashford, Alejandro Garnacho and Rasmus Højlund combining brilliantly this month, while Villa’s 5-0 win at Sheffield United has got them back in form.
Villa’s win last weekend was defined by Unai Emery’s tactical decision to hit long through the Blades’ defence at the earliest opportunity, thereby not allowing Chris Wilder’s side to settle.
Ollie Watkins was put in behind over and over again, leading directly to the first two early goals, and a similar idea at Villa Park this weekend could work well.
United’s back-line is weakened without Lisandro Martinez and there is no doubt that Douglas Luiz can find space among a haphazard Red Devils press to slip the ball behind Harry Maguire and through to Watkins.
However, that sort of direct attacking football invariably stretches the pitch lengthways, which could favour the visitors going back the other way. Villa’s defensive line remains incredibly high (they have caught 116 offsides, at least 41 more than anyone else) and that’s just what Bruno Fernandes wants to feed Højlund, Rashford and Garnacho.
On balance, however, Villa are still favourites. Man Utd are forever disconnected and sluggish through central midfield, the area that Villa pack with players (John McGinn will drop in from the left), and Pau Torres’ return from injury should significantly improve Villa’s ability to control matches.
They have badly missed his progressive passes into midfield, but with Torres back we should see the title-challenging Villa return.
Moyes’ low block v Martinelli & Saka
- West Ham vs Arsenal
- Sky Sports Main Event: Sunday, 14:00 GMT
- Home 19/4 | Draw 10/3 | Away 8/15
Arsenal’s 2-0 defeat to West Ham towards the end of December was their first of three straight in all competitions and seemingly put them out of the title race.
In April last year, a 2-2 draw at the London Stadium, in which West Ham had been 2-0 down, precipitated the Gunners' late collapse. Sunday’s game could be just as big.
Here is a chance for Mikel Arteta’s side to put both of those games behind them and reaffirm their place in this season’s title race, especially considering that West Ham are on a poor run of form.
In the past, David Moyes’ relatively low block, coupled with his team’s speed on the counter-attack, made Arsenal look toothless and exposed their defensive frailties, but West Ham look weaker at the moment.
They are winless in six matches in all competitions, and the common theme of these performances has been an unusual sloppiness in the wide areas. Vladimir Coufal, in particular, hasn’t been up to standard, hence why defender Ben Johnson was deployed on the right wing against Man Utd last weekend. This is the area Arsenal can target.
Gabriel Martinelli and Bukayo Saka both scored against Liverpool, suggesting they will feel emboldened to go at the West Ham full-backs and find room just as Man Utd did. Martinelli running straight at Coufal is a head-to-head that will surely only go one way.
However, Arsenal’s creativity problems haven’t necessarily disappeared. Even in the 3-1 win against Liverpool they clearly lacked a number nine whose movement creates space in the penalty area, thus Moyes will be hopeful his tried-and-tested methods once again slow Arsenal down, pack the box with defenders, and force the Gunners into another backwards step.
Inverting full-backs v Lamptey & Hinshelwood
- Tottenham vs Brighton
- Saturday, 15:00 GMT
- Home 4/5 | Draw 3/1 | Away 29/10
Brighton’s first win in five Premier League games last weekend came courtesy of a pretty dramatic tactical shift from Roberto De Zerbi.
Out went wing-backs James Milner and Pervis Estupinan, who play narrowly and congest central midfield, and in came Tariq Lamptey and Jack Hinshelwood, who were instructed to hold the width on either flank.
The result was a considerably wider Brighton setup, with the midfield also stretching as De Zerbi’s side regularly switched the play to get Lamptey and Hinshelwood on the ball.
It worked.
Lamptey’s drive down the left earned the corner from which Brighton took the lead, and he crossed to Hinshelwood for the second goal, effectively ending the contest. De Zerbi will almost certainly deploy the same system this weekend given that Tottenham Hotspur regularly leave the wings open.
Ange Postecoglou only knows one way to play, with full-backs Destiny Udogie and Pedro Porro coming infield to operate as central midfielders - and, with the wingers hugging the touchline and staying up front, that often means Spurs can be counter-attacked down each side.
Consequently, there is a clear mismatch out wide. Look out for Lamptey and Hinshelwood finding room ahead of the Tottenham full-backs and wingers, potentially pulling the hosts into a more open contest than they would like.
If that wasn’t worrying enough for Spurs, who have won just one of their last four in all competitions and have a weakened midfield without Yves Bissouma, they have another problem to contend with - Kaoru Mitoma is back from the Asian Cup.
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