- Alex Keble (@alexkeble) is a football journalist who specialises in tactical understanding, analysis and predictions of all aspects of the game.
Full-back issues v soaring Seagulls
- Chelsea v Brighton
- Sunday, 14:00 GMT
- Home 4/6 | Draw 16/5 | Away 18/5
Chelsea have taken a pretty substantial step backwards in the last few weeks, raising their game for the 4-4 draw with Manchester City but otherwise struggling.
Even in the 4-1 victory over Tottenham they were outplayed prior to the first red card. At Spurs, as well as against Man City and Newcastle, the problems were chiefly in the full-back areas.
Mauricio Pochettino’s aggressive tactical approach tends to leave the two wingers up the pitch, exposing those full-backs to too much pressure against the stronger sides: Phil Foden, Dejan Kulusevski, and Anthony Gordon in particular ran amok.
Things are only going to get worse with Reece James and Marc Cucurella both suspended for the visit of Brighton, a team whose entire tactical identity is built on luring the opponent into pressing them before quickly shifting gears with direct passes out to touchline-hugging wingers.
Chelsea fans should be very afraid of what awaits them.
Pochettino is unlikely to sit his team deeper, especially since he will want a reaction following the Newcastle defeat, and that should hand Brighton the opportunity to evade the press and burst beyond the Chelsea front line.
From here, Simon Adingra and Joao Pedro (or Kaoru Mitoma, if he recovers from injury in time) will run straight at Malo Gusto and Levi Colwill.
Shuffling Colwill across will mean another change in the back four, adding to the dread of facing a Brighton team who tend to score freely whenever they don’t face a low block.
Evan Ferguson, in particular, will expect to pounce on any more errors like those in the 4-1 defeat at Newcastle.
Rodri-gap v Kulusevski’s new role
- Man City v Tottenham
- Sky Sports: Sunday, 16:30 GMT
- Home 1/4 | Draw 5/1 | Away 17/2
Pep Guardiola seems to have lost some of the control he craves.
Having sold Ilkay Gundogan over the summer, and with Mateo Kovacic and Matheus Nunes injured, Rodri is being asked to cover too much space in central midfield.
The result of that has been four goals conceded against Chelsea and the awkward structure of their 1-1 draw with Liverpool.
That hands Tottenham a slight chance at the Etihad, although their own huge injury list – and their low confidence after three consecutive defeats – means the hosts should be considered heavy favourites.
The most interesting thing about their unfortunate 2-1 defeat by Aston Villa was Ange Postecoglou’s deployment of Dejan Kulusevski in the central James Maddison role, a position that suits his ball-carrying and passing ability.
“I felt so good today, I felt like the real Dejan,” he said after the game. “I felt like myself today and the coach decided where to put me. I enjoyed and I had real fun playing today. It was a great day for me.”
Part of what he enjoyed will have been the number of passing options open to him as Destiny Udogie moved infield to join the Spurs midfielders, overloading Villa centrally in the first half in particular.
It is here – the locus of Kulusevski’s movement, and Udogie’s late runs – that Rodri might find himself overworked, especially given that Postecoglou will commit to attacking football no matter the opponent.
This one should be similar to Chelsea’s 4-4, then, and if Kulusevski builds on that good feeling he can make use of the spaces around Rodri.
But even if he does, Man City should still prevail in what is admittedly the most important (just not as interesting) match-up: Spurs face Erling Haaland, on his own turf, with a pair of full-backs playing in central defence.
Mainoo-led midfield v Toon transitions
- Newcastle v Man Utd
- TNT Sports: Saturday, 20:00 GMT
- Home 10/11 | Draw 13/5 | Away 14/5
It would be grossly unfair to put pressure on an 18-year-old who made his full debut only the previous weekend, and indeed a dereliction of duty from a Manchester United perspective to do so to such a young player.
But… it is hard to resist the temptation to suggest Kobbie Mainoo will be pivotal in resisting the Newcastle onslaught.
Mauricio Pochettino laid into his players for losing every challenge in the 4-1 defeat to Newcastle, telling reporters he was “very, very, very, very, very angry,” but sometimes at St James Park that is just how the Magpies make you look.
The fire and the tenacity in the Newcastle team will cause serious damage to anyone who cannot match their energy levels.
Mainoo was the best player on the pitch for Man Utd in their 3-0 win at Everton.
He constantly showed for the ball and recycled it neatly, taking the riskier option when necessary to break the lines and ensure the visitors remained on the front foot.
He had the best pass completion rate (82.6%) on the pitch and, with 61 touches of the ball, was just seven short of topping this metric too, despite only playing the first 71 minutes.
If that wasn’t enough, he completed the most carries (33) of any outfield player and the most take-ons (2). He was everywhere.
But Sean Dyche’s team rarely presses midfielders, and a trip to a raucous Tyneside will be a whole new challenge.
It is unfair on Mainoo that United’s weak midfield puts pressure on him to perform, but that is where we are at.
Snapping at the teenager’s heels, it will be perfectly understandable should United look as brittle as Chelsea did – especially in the context of how we have seen them play throughout this season.
Of course, there is always the chance that Man Utd will hold on and wait for Bruno Fernandes to do something special, but Erik ten Hag’s side always look hesitant and a little confused.
That is not the attitude one needs when facing Newcastle.
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