- Alex Keble (@alexkeble) is a football journalist who specialises in tactical understanding, analysis and predictions of all aspects of the game.
McGinn & Tielemans vs Rodri-less midfield
- Aston Villa vs Manchester City
- Wednesday, 20:15 GMT
- Home 16/5 | Draw 3/1 | Away 8/11
Manchester City are slowly approaching a mini-crisis. They have now drawn three matches in a row and have won just 12 points from their last eight in the Premier League, while defeat at Villa Park – where the hosts have won 13 on the trot – would see Aston Villa go above Pep Guardiola’s side in the table.
If that was to happen, more serious questions would be asked of Guardiola’s tactics, of Man City’s post-treble hangover, and of the likelihood of a three-horse title race.
But Villa have been slowing down too as European football takes its toll and they were lucky to get a 2-2 draw at Bournemouth. Nevertheless, the tactical battle at Villa Park could still go in Villa’s favour, especially with Rodri suspended; Man City have lost six of the 16 league games Rodri has missed since his debut in 2019/20, including two this season.
Unai Emery was always going to target that Rodri area, where Man City have been surprisingly soft all year, although the configuration will surely shift now that the Spaniard is absent altogether, handing Villa a major advantage when it comes to counter-attacks.
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In each of the last two matches Emery has started Nicolo Zaniolo only to take him off and revert to a 4-2-3-1, meaning it is surely time to start in this formation with Youri Tielemans in front of Boubacar Kamara and Douglas Luiz. That is a trio that can cause serious damage to a Man City midfield that tends to leave just one defensive midfielder in transition (with the other, nominally a centre-back, has to drop).
Villa will look to play their way out of trouble as Tottenham did in their 3-3 draw at the Etihad, with Pau Torres the key player in playing clever progressive passes up to the free man Tielemans. If the hosts are confident and in good form, they should connect to their midfielders very well and force Man City to backpedal frantically.
If that is not the key match-up of the game, then it will be the more obvious one: Villa’s high line versus Erling Haaland, who against Spurs failed to get a single one of his five shots on target.
Villa have caught 66 offsides this season, which is over 50% more than the next-highest team Tottenham (42). Haaland will no doubt want to break this high line, and yet Man City were reluctant to even attempt to do so against Spurs at the weekend. Guardiola doesn’t like to try many because it stretches the pitch, which in turn means more space for Villa to counter straight back through those Rodri holes.
Man City will also be confident about their high press, which caught Tottenham numerous times and should have led to a healthy first-half lead had Haaland not missed so many chances. Villa, meanwhile, conceded at Bournemouth from a misplaced Diego Carlos pass, and with Matty Cash the less secure option at right-back, Carlos is likely to again feature so that Ezri Konsa can keep tight to Jeremy Doku.
Carlos will be targeted. He is Villa’s weak link at the moment, but if the hosts are a little bit more pragmatic than usual in getting the ball out of their own third, they stand a good chance of making it five games without a win for Man City.
James & Sterling vs Dalot
- Manchester United vs Chelsea
- Wednesday, 20:15 GMT
- Home 9/5 | Draw 13/5 | Away 11/8
The 1-0 defeat to Newcastle United could easily have been five or six such was the tactical and psychological dominance of Eddie Howe’s side in a match that encapsulated so much of what is wrong with Manchester United this season.
They continue to be aimless, formless, and perhaps even effortless. Marcus Rashford and Alejandro Garnacho constantly failed to track back, which caused the full-backs to become isolated against Newcastle’s wingers and full-backs. Elsewhere Scott McTominay and Kobbie Mainoo (the 18-year-old being thrown to the lions, and blameless here) were outmanoeuvred by simple midfield runners breaking beyond them, while the Newcastle players also seemed to win every 50-50.
Indeed Man Utd are completely outplayed by anyone willing to go toe-to-toe, hence why they are yet to record a win against any of last season’s top eight. And so, Chelsea’s furious pressing, directness in the dribble, and tendency to play fast transition football under Mauricio Pochettino points to another embarrassing day at Old Trafford for Erik Ten Hag.
Reece James’s return from suspension is a particular issue for the hosts. Raheem Sterling will cut inside from the right wing, just as Miguel Almiron did on Saturday evening, pulling Diogo Dalot inside and creating space for James to attack ahead of a listless Rashford. That is surely the biggest tactical match-up, but it is hardly the only reason Chelsea should be favourites.
In the middle of the park, Enzo Fernandes and Moises Caicedo ought to resist the haphazard United press, and therefore stream through the middle of the park, although with Conor Gallagher suspended they are a little weaker in the tackle. That shouldn’t be too much of a problem.
Throw into the mix Andre Onana’s poor form and Chelsea’s free-scoring forwards, and it looks like there will only be one winner at Old Trafford.
Pochettino was furious with his players for being soft in the 4-1 defeat at Newcastle and got the response he wanted in an angry, aggressive display versus Brighton. Chelsea, then, will be up for this. Man Utd rarely are.
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