Alex Keble's Premier League match-ups: Goals on the menu
- Alex Keble (@alexkeble) is a football journalist who specialises in tactical understanding, analysis and predictions of all aspects of the game.
Another Bournemouth basketball match
- Bournemouth vs Liverpool
- Sunday, 16:30 GMT
- Home 7/2 | Draw 16/5 | Away 4/6
Andoni Iraola’s Bournemouth are either the perfect team for Liverpool to face or one of the most tricky. It is surprisingly difficult to know which.
Iraola preaches hard-pressing, transition-focused football and over the last couple of months we have seen Bournemouth’s front four tear through opponents on the break.
Liverpool are vulnerable to fast breaks, of course, and yet Bournemouth were beaten 3-1 by an expansive Tottenham Hotspur side two weeks ago because their attacking football can create-end-to-end matches that favour the more gifted players.
Liverpool love playing teams who refuse to sit deep. It inevitably means their midfield and attacking lines have space in possession to play the all-out kamikaze football that has so far defined Jurgen Klopp’s rebrand in 2023/24.
The Reds are the most direct team in the Premier League, both in terms of number of ‘direct attacks’ – 55 – and on Opta’s measure of ‘direct speed’, with 1.96.
That explains their high attacking output, but also why only Newcastle United have had more successful take-ons against them than Liverpool’s 221.
The game will be stretched, then, and while this should favour Liverpool – and minimise the loss of Mohamed Salah, whose genius is needed mostly in tight spaces – there is a chance Bournemouth can outscore the visitors by targeting Liverpool’s right side.
Bournemouth attack down their left flank more than anyone else (40%), and an injury to Trent Alexander-Arnold, coupled with the continued absence of Andrew Robertson and Konstantinos Tsimikas, means 20-year-old Conor Bradley will step in for his Premier League debut.
While Antoine Semenyo is at the African Cup of Nations, Luis Sinisterra is playing on the left wing, and the 21-year-old completed five of his six take-ons against Tottenham in his last game.
He is also top of the Bournemouth charts for percentage of successful take-ons among forwards, with 60%, suggesting Bradley could have a tough game.
Combining with Justin Kluivert, Marcus Tavernier and ex-Liverpool player Dominic Solanke, there is certainly a high chance that Sinisterra can help Bournemouth create plenty of opportunities in the transition.
Whether it will be enough to win is another matter. Bournemouth have conceded two or more goals in three of their last four games in all competitions. Liverpool have scored ten in their last four.
Crystal clear Arsenal will rely on Saka
- Arsenal vs Crystal Palace
- Saturday, 12:30 GMT
- Home 2/7 | Draw 17/4 | Away 19/2
Kevin De Bruyne’s terrifying impact for Manchester City last weekend - somewhat foreshadowed on these pages - has piled even more pressure on to Arsenal.
Having won just four points from their last five Premier League matches, the Gunners now stand on the precipice of collapse.
Their season would fall apart if they cannot beat Crystal Palace on Saturday.
Everything now points towards Manchester City finishing above them and dropped points at home to Roy Hodgson’s struggling side would most likely mean a five- or seven-point gap to the champions. Mikel Arteta cannot let that happen.
He needs something dramatic to shake Arsenal awake. Moving Bukayo Saka into the left-sided eight position usually occupied by Kai Havertz is one option.
It’s safe to assume Arteta, so keen on his predictable and highly-structured patterns of play, won’t do anything as maverick as that - which could mean another frustrating day for Arsenal fans.
Even during a poor run of form, Palace have been able to sit back and absorb pressure effectively against the bigger teams, as Hodgson’s simplistic 4-4-2 does the trick in shuffling across, closing down space, and launching counter-attacks through the speedy forwards.
In early December, they restricted Liverpool to an xG of just 1.2 but lost 2-1, before drawing 2-2 at Manchester City a week later. Those matches give some indication of how Palace will set up at Emirates Stadium – and why they can hurt their hosts.
For Arsenal, it’s all on Saka, as usual. Saturday’s game will come down to how effectively Palace can defend that flank, and it appears they are well-placed to double up on Saka and neutralise him, as so many have done recently.
Jeffrey Schlupp will play on the left side just in front of Tyrick Mitchell, which forms a very strong defensive partnership to stick tight to Saka. This will be the first line of defence as Hodgson plumps for a purely reactive stance at Arsenal.
At the other end, long-ball counters will be launched towards Eberechi Eze and Odsonne Edouard, although with Jordan Ayew on international duty and Michael Olise injured, Palace’s attacking options are limited.
A 0-0 draw, however, is very much on the cards. It would end Arsenal’s title challenge.
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