- Alex Keble (@alexkeble) is a football journalist who specialises in tactical understanding, analysis and predictions of all aspects of the game.
Frank’s stubborn defence v De Bruyne & Haaland
- Brentford vs Manchester City
- Sky Sports: Monday, 20:00 GMT
- Home 6/1 | Draw 19/5 | Away 2/5
Erling Haaland has scored against 20 of the 21 sides he’s faced in the Premier League. The only exception is Brentford, who did the double over Manchester City last season and face them twice in the league this month.
Thomas Frank’s tactical strategy for games against Man City isn’t particularly complicated. He plays an aggressive and narrow 5-3-2 formation, instructing the third centre-back to step out and meet whichever Man City playmaker is occupying the half-space, and then counter-attacks with long balls played through Ivan Toney.
As yet Pep Guardiola hasn’t worked out how to beat the system. Kevin de Bruyne will be crowded out centrally and his crosses will surely be easily cleared away, while Haaland – whether starting or off the bench – will be tracked closely.
However, this isn’t quite the same Brentford as it was last year. Frank’s side have dropped a league-high 23 points from winning positions in 2023/24 and incidentally Man City have trailed in each of their last three away games but won all of them.
Worse still Brentford are 11 matches without a clean sheet in the Premier League and have conceded at least two in each of their last five. Haaland and De Bruyne, back together at last, have a better chance of success on Monday evening than they did in either of last season’s games.
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Central-midfield crucial
- Arsenal vs Liverpool
- Sky Sports: Sunday, 16:30 GMT
- Home 6/5 | Draw 13/5 | Away 21/10
The mood music behind Sunday’s six-pointer has shifted dramatically over the past week. This was already the biggest game of the season so far for both Arsenal and Liverpool, who with Manchester City gaining ground cannot afford to drop any points, but Jurgen Klopp’s resignation has ramped up the pressure even more.
Liverpool are not the favourites, neither for this game nor the title, but news of Klopp’s departure appears to have galvanised the team and many will fancy them – for both. They were magnificent in the 4-1 victory over Chelsea, battering the visitors with a performance of gegenpressing carnage that encapsulated the very best of the Klopp era and pointed to the perfect ending.
Arsenal should be worried, mainly because their previous efforts to counter-press Liverpool and move quickly through the thirds have tended to end badly. Mikel Arteta’s side are regularly sucked into the madness, producing open and end-to-end games that favour the team more comfortable with that kind of contest.
If indeed the match is stretched for long spells, as it was earlier this month, then we will likely get a repeat of Liverpool’s 2-0 win in the FA Cup third round: Arsenal being wasteful in front of goal and Liverpool enjoying the full-throttle experience. Again, the impact of Klopp’s shock announcement only exacerbates the mismatch from an Arsenal perspective, especially with goalscoring a continuing issue for Arteta.
Arsenal may have an advantage in attacking quickly down the flanks as Gabriel Martinelli and Bukayo Saka attempt to get ahead of Liverpool’s marauding full-backs, although that very much depends on whom Klopp picks. Joe Gomez and Conor Bradley looks secure; Andrew Robertson and Trent Alexander-Arnold less so.
But the bigger match-up is in central midfield, where space will be tight and each side’s counter-pressing needs to be resisted. The team most often caught in possession in their own third will concede the most chances, while the team who can weave away from the counter-press will be able to open up the pitch and produce a potentially decisive fast break.
That is why all eyes should be on Alexis Mac Allister and Declan Rice, the two numbers sixes through whom everything filters.
Rice’s capacity to recycle possession and play no-look passes around the corner in Rodri-like fashion will be essential in breaking out from the waves of Liverpool pressure, something Moises Caicedo – who looked lost in the storm on Wednesday – was unable to do. Here, again, Arsenal look to be in trouble; Rice can be left isolated by Martin Odegaard and Kai Havertz, although there is a good chance Arteta will start Jorginho to produce something close to a double pivot at the base of midfield.
That’s what he did in the FA Cup third round, but not only was it ultimately unsuccessful that day, Liverpool are even stronger now that Dominic Szoboszlai is back in the side. What’s more, Mac Allister was pulling the strings against Chelsea, mopping up loose balls as well as playing intelligent passes through the lines to set Liverpool away. It is hard to see Odegaard and Jorginho getting on top of Mac Allister and stamping out the attacks at source.
There are two more personnel changes from the FA Cup win that go in Liverpool’s favour. In-form Diogo Jota is available on the right and Virgil van Dijk is back at the heart of defence, the latter strengthening Liverpool’s resistance to Saka cutting inside and the former releasing the glorious chaos of Darwin Nunez.
Rice versus Mac Allister is the centre point of all of this. Form, momentum, and tactical analysis suggest the Liverpool man will have the upper hand – and that Arsenal will drop eight points off the top.
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