Alex Keble's FA Cup final match-ups: Erik ten Hag to repeat past mistakes vs Man City?
Last year was the first Manchester derby in FA Cup final history and a surprisingly well-contested game. The two clubs have diverged substantially since then.
Manchester City are going for yet another English record – the double double – and the opportunity to confirm, if there is any doubt left, that Pep Guardiola has built the best football team this country has ever seen.
Manchester United’s aims are a little more humble. Erik ten Hag desperately needs to win at Wembley if he is to cling onto his job after taking the club to their record low finish in the Premier League.
Ten Hag’s tactical approach to the game is easy to predict. He will use the same method as he did in the 3-1 defeat at the Etihad in March, which he described at the time as a ‘good performance’.
It wasn’t, but that’s the world Ten Hag lives in – and there is still a chance, though slight, that Man Utd can stifle Man City and counter-attack behind their high line for a smash-and-grab win.
If they are to do that, they need to block City’s attacks in two particular areas.
Casemiro & Mainoo vs Foden & De Bruyne
In their most recent meeting Ten Hag deployed a very deep 4-4-2 formation that was often a 4-6-0 and sometimes even a 6-4-0, with Scott McTominay and Bruno Fernandes the two false nines dropping and dropping.
In a man-marking system, Casemiro and Kobbie Mainoo were instructed to track the Man City number eights, pulling them out of midfield altogether and leaving gaps that, in theory, McTominay and Fernandes would fill.
In reality United were left with a wild and muddled shape, yanked about until Man City could easily create chances. They had a 2.73 xG figure in the first half alone and took 27 shots in total, missing countless opportunities before finally starting to turn a 1-0 deficit around on the hour mark.
Phil Foden and Kevin de Bruyne were deployed together as number eights in Man City’s final game of the season against West Ham, and although that is unlikely to happen again Foden will nevertheless venture in from the left to join De Bruyne and pull the United midfield out of position.
This is the game’s most important match-up.
Historically, Ten Hag’s United have been at their best when pushing up to a midblock, meaning their man-marking midfielders can sit on top of the number eights and disrupt City’s flow. But more recently Man Utd have dropped very deep, inviting pressure and forcing their players to track Man City attackers into wide areas or as they make runs beyond the defensive line.
It doesn’t work. Nevertheless it will probably feature heavily at Wembley.
Guardiola’s doubling up vs Wan-Bissaka
Even if Ten Hag’s system successfully blocks Guardiola’s path through the middle, he will struggle with the second issue: defending the flanks.
Throughout the campaign Man Utd have had a problem getting their wingers to track back into position after a counter-attack breaks down, which generally leaves the full-back exposed. Guardiola has managed to target this area in both their league meetings in 2023/24.
In the 3-0 at Old Trafford in October and the 3-1 in March, Man City accelerated away via doubling up on the left wing.
In the first meeting Jack Grealish and Bernardo Silva effectively played as double left wingers, easily beating Diogo Dalot because Bruno Fernandes (at right wing that day) wasn’t getting back. Interactions between Grealish and Silva on the left wing created lots of opportunities prior to directly assisting the second goal.
In the 3-1, during the second half Foden and De Bruyne were repositioned out here to do a similar job on Willy Kwambala and Antony, the two substitutes now patrolling United’s right side. Again, it led directly to a crucial second Man City goal.
Injuries mean Aaron Wan-Bissaka at right-back with Amad Diallo in front of him, making that flank United’s weakest from a defensive standpoint. Foden and De Bruyne, or Jeremy Doku later in the game, will put serious pressure on that side.
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