Jake Pearson previews the Champions League round of 16 second leg between Ajax and Benfica, picking out his best bets and score prediction.
Football betting tips: Champions League
1pt Under 6 Ajax corners at 11/8 (Sky Bet)
Ajax and Benfica are 20/1 and 500/1 respectively to win the Champions League, and while those prices imply a small probability that either will be crowned European champions, they produced potentially the match of the competition so far when they met at the Estádio da Luz last month.
The game finished 2-2, and correctly so according to Infogol, with both sides creating plenty of chances (xG: BEN 1.86-2.01 AJA), and we could be in for yet another entertaining affair as they two face off in Amsterdam.
The Dutch side are heavy favourites to progress, the bookmakers giving them an 80% chance of reaching the next stage of the competition, and given Benfica’s struggles domestically – some 12 points adrift of league-leaders Porto – it is difficult to disagree.
Ajax v Benfica (agg: 2-2)
Kick-off time: 20:00 GMT, Tuesday
TV channel: BT Sport 3
Ajax 4/11 | Draw 17/4 | Benfica 13/2
Backing the home side at 2/5 makes little appeal though, particularly in a competition such as this, but there is value to be found in other markets.
The corner market is the most appealing avenue, with Ajax appearing to have been overestimated in this particular area.
The hosts are 1/4 to take more corners than their visitors, and a lot of that must surely be down to the match supremacies, with the data not really backing up such a short price, but rather than taking the visitors at a big price, or even on the handicap, the best play looks to be backing AJAX TO TAKE UNDER 6 CORNERS at a price of 11/8.
Erik ten Hag’s men have averaged 7.62 corners per game in the Dutch Eredivisie this season, which admittedly, is higher than the line we are looking for here, but the calibre of opposition must be taken into account.
Considering that average drops to just four corners per match in their Champions League fixtures this season, with just two of their seven games seeing them hit six – they lost the corner battle 7-2 in the reverse fixture – and that odds against price begins to make even more appeal.
Ajax v Benfica best bets and score prediction
- 1pt Under 6 Ajax corners at 11/8 (Sky Bet)
Score prediction: Ajax 2-0 Benfica (Sky Bet odds: 17/2)
Odds correct at 1300 GMT (14/03/22)
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