Football betting tips: AFCON outright
3pts Ivory Coast to win Group F at 5/6 (General)
1.5pts e.w. Algeria to win AFCON at 13/2 (Sky Bet, Paddy Power, Betfair 1/2 1,2)
0.25pts e.w. Burkina Faso to win AFCON at 100/1 (BetVictor 1/2 1,2)
Atomic. Ferocious. Chaotic. Outrageous. Nail-biting.
AFCON is back, with the 35th edition kicking off on 21 December when Morocco plays host for the first time in its history.
Ranked 11th in the world - the highest of any African team - the Atlas Lions are under immense pressure to lift the trophy and are priced accordingly (11/4) to win their first AFCON since 1976.
The omens are in their favour. To date, 12 nations have won the tournament when it has been held in their country. The 2023 edition saw Ivory Coast added to that exclusive list after they miraculously won AFCON after sacking their manager mid-tournament - and no doubt there will be antics throughout the tournament once more.
Bettors should also be mindful that European players aren’t being released from their domestic duties until less than a week before the tournament starts.
Nations that have more domestic based players may be able to cause an upset or two within the group stage. AFCON doesn’t favour the biggest names on the pitch as we have seen many times over the years.
AFCON outright winner odds (via Sky Bet)
- 11/4 - Morocco
- 6/1 - Egypt
- 13/2 - Algeria, Senegal
- 10/1 - Nigeria
- 12/1 - Mali, Ivory Coast, Tunisia
- 16/1 - Cameroon
- 40/1 bar
Odds correct at 17:00 GMT (15/12/25)
Morocco too short to support
Three of the last five hosts have won AFCON which has arguably played a part in Morocco’s short price to win and come out on top. The clear favourites, however, have done plenty of their talking on the pitch, losing just twice since the beginning of 2024. Impressive stuff.
This is a squad stacked with talent. Noussair Mazraoui, Adam Masina and Achraf Hakimi are among the best defenders in Africa.
They have an incredible amount of options in midfield too, while in attack they have two clinical and hard-working strikers (Youssef En-Nesyri and Ayoub El Kaabi), supported by exciting creative wide players.
The country has prepared for their big day by building and updating stadiums that wouldn’t look out of place anywhere in the world - and they also have a team built to deliver.
It’s easy to see why they are the tournament’s favourites to go all the way - but the price is too short before a ball has even been kicked.
Out of form Salah a concern
Egypt are second favourites to lift the trophy at 6/1 and it’s going to be interesting to see how they approach their first couple of matches.
Unless you’ve been living under a rock, you’ll know that Mohamed Salah has been receiving plenty of scrutiny for his performances with Liverpool - but will he welcome the break from his club duties or will his frustration carry on with the Pharaohs?
His teammates have come out in full support to rally behind him - but it’s hardly surprising. Without Salah performing to his usual level, Egypt will likely struggle.
If their star player isn’t fit and firing, what will Egypt achieve in the Morocco? It’s difficult to bank on a team so heavily reliant on one player - and being completely out of form makes it hard to fully support Egypt as Morocco’s main competitors.
However, this does create value for another nation that looks well prepared ahead of the tournament.
Algeria the value bet
ALGERIA were one of the guests to take part in the Arab Cup, who were knocked out on penalties against UAE in the quarter-finals on Friday 12th December. However, only a few players from that squad will be heading to Morocco.
A nation bordering the hosts, Algeria will have no issues performing in the desert and will expect large crowds throughout the tournament.
The aptly named Desert Warriors cantered clear during the recent World Cup qualifiers, where Wolfsburg’s forward Mohamed Amoura scored 10 goals and provided four assists. Having scored five in 13 Bundesliga matches, the 25-year-old will be key to their success in Morocco.
That’s because Marseille’s Amine Gouiri is out with a shoulder injury and hasn’t featured for his club since mid-October - a huge miss for Algeria.
But 34-year-old Riyad Mahrez will be available, who’s continued to produce strong numbers in Saudi for Al Ahli, both in the league and AFC Champions League. This could be his last tournament, and so often that plays its part in how the story ends.
This heavily experienced side has quality across their 28-man squad and are a much bigger than the hosts TO WIN AFCON, and while Morocco will appeal to many, it's Algeria who are worth siding with.
Swerve the big names
It could be Senegal’s last chance for some of their ageing group to produce the magic required on the big stage. Kalidou Koulibaly, Idrissa Gueye and Sadio Mane are entering their final years, although all are still very capable of playing key roles for the Lions of Teranga.
As a nation, they haven't been dominant at AFCON, winning only one title back in 2021, and they struggled to deal with the pressure of favouritism two years ago.
They look on the short side once again, and so do Nigeria, with both nations seemingly short due to the big-name players in their ranks.
The Super Eagles head coach Eric Chelle has made some big calls with his 28-man squad that have divided opinion, leaving out Nottingham Forest’s Ola Aina, Udinese’s goalkeeper Maduka Okoye and Nice’s Terem Moffi, and has called up nine attackers.
Galatasaray’s top scorer Victor Osimhen and Atalanta’s Ademola Lookman will lead the line - and expectations will be high for the pair to deliver - but the question remains as to whether they are simply too top heavy.
It’s easy to see why they are a popular bet and towards the top of the market, but a lack of defensive quality might catch them out, just as it nearly did in World Cup qualifying when edging to second place behind South Africa, finishing level on points with Benin.
Cameroon look set to be another to swerve, with it pure chaos in their national team at the moment. They head into the tournament with two squads and two managers. Confused? You’re not alone.
President Samuel Eto’o had stated head coach Marc Brys was sacked and the former Barcelona player released a 28-man squad list along with a new manager David Pagou. Yet Brys has refused to accept his dismissal and has submitted his own 28-man squad for the tournament. It's an incredibly messy situation - and perhaps it’s best to avoid Cameroon in the group stage.
Bringing such chaos into the tournament never bodes well and Cameroon might just pay the price for their lack of organisation. Yet that does open the door for a group stage bet.
Get reigning champs onside
Ivory Coast won the 2023 AFCON in spectacular fashion but will find it tough to retain their crown. Currently priced at 12/1, only four Premier League players have made the 26-man squad, two of those from Nottingham Forest, meaning this isn’t one of the more well-polished sides heading to Morocco.
A positive, however, is that Wilfried Zaha has been recalled after impressing at Charlotte in the MLS, and that might be an indication that the Elephants are lacking enough quality in the final third to make a real statement of intent this time round in the latter stages.
With that being said, there’s far less issues within their camp than there is with the circus that surrounds Cameroon at present, and with top spot likely between the two big nations, backing IVORY COAST TO WIN GROUP F looks a straightforward bet. The group is made up of Gabon and Mozambique.
Back big priced Burkina
For those looking for a nation that could capture Africa's heart, it’s worth looking at Burkina Faso. They enter the tournament in Group E and admittedly they will have to deal with Algeria, but with a poor Sudan side in their group, and Equatorial Guinea not quite on the same level, Burkina Faso could be the nation to join Algeria in the knockout stage.
From there, a difficult looking tie against Ivory Coast or Cameroon likely awaits, but the Stallions have been excellent during their World Cup qualifiers - outscoring Egypt in Group A with 23 goals from 10 matches.
Sadly Lassina Traore, their top goalscorer, is out injured but they still have Sunderland’s Bertrand Traore and Brentford’s Dango Ouattara to count on. Priced at 100/1 with BetVictor, they look overpriced and could be a good trade out opportunity.
They were runners-up in 2013, finished third in 2017, fourth in 2021 before a round of 16 exit last time around, so they have previous of upsetting some of Africa's giants and going deep in the tournament, which bodes well. And, after all, this is AFCON, where literally anything can happen.
Odds correct at 17:00 GMT (16/12/25)
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