AC Milan v Atletico Madrid tips: Champions League preview and best bets
AC Milan host Atletico Madrid in the Champions League, with both sides looking for a win in a highly-competitive group, Jake Pearson has picked out his best bets.
Football betting tips: Champions League
1.5pts Under 2.5 Goals at 10/13 (Mansion Bet)
1pt AC Milan most corners taken at 13/8 (Sky Bet)
Group B is arguably the most competitive group in this season’s Champions League, with all four teams in with a realistic chance of qualifying for the knockout stages.
It wasn’t the greatest start for either AC Milan or Atletico Madrid on matchday one, however, the Italian side losing 3-2 away to Liverpool, while the Spaniards drew 0-0 at home to Porto - the group’s bottom seed.
Milan did go into half-time at Anfield in the lead, though it was something of a smash-and-grab, Liverpool looking imperious before Stefano Pioli’s men scored in the 42nd and 44th minute.
The Rossoneri followed that defeat with a respectable draw with Juventus, though, before recording successive wins against Verona and Spezia.
Kick-off time: 20:00 BST, Tuesday
TV channel: BT Sport ESPN
AC Milan 15/8 | Draw 9/4 | Atletico Madrid 6/4
It leaves them second in Serie A, just two points behind leaders Napoli, and Pioli will be much happier with the start to the season his side have made than Diego Simeone will be.
Atletico sit in fourth position in La Liga, already three points behind city rivals Real Madrid and having already failed to win in three of their seven league games.
A 1-0 defeat to Alaves at the weekend perfectly summed up Atleti’s start to the campaign, struggling for any real thrust going forward, whilst also being uncharacteristically lackadaisical at the back.
In fact, had all matches finished on 90 minutes in La Liga this season, Atleti would have won just two, scoring in the 9th minute of stoppage time in their win over Espanyol and in the first minute of stoppage time in their win over Getafe.
These may all be ifs and buts, but the fact remains that Simeone’s men have not got going yet this season.
Player-for-player, Atletico may be a better team than Milan, but they are unlikely to approach this game in an overly positive manner, particularly with a crucial game against Barcelona coming up at the weekend.
Despite only keeping one clean sheet in La Liga this season, the Champions League is where Atleti tend excel defensively, and they have already recorded a shutout in this year’s competition.
Last season, games involving Atleti in the Champions League saw the fourth-fewest average match goals, with just 25% of their games going over 2.5 goals.
Simeone in the Champions League does not leave games to chance, while Milan have been defensively sound since Pioli took charge.
With this group as finely poised as it is, a price of 10/13 for UNDER 2.5 GOALS makes plenty of appeal.
Also worth a look is the corner betting, and specifically the match betting between these two.
Against Liverpool, Milan were pummeled on the corner count, but that was a definite one-off, the Italians conceding an average of just 2.67 corners at home in Serie A this season.
By averaging Milan’s home corners won ratio and Atletico’s away corners conceded ratio, and vice versa, Milan come out slightly on top in terms of the corner predictions for this match.
Most bookmakers have them priced at even money apiece in terms of the corner match betting, and that isn’t far off, however, Sky Bet’s price of 13/8 about AC MILAN TO HAVE THE MOST CORNERS looks like an outlier, and is certainly worth backing.
AC Milan v Atletico Madrid best bets and score prediction
- 1.5pts Under 2.5 Goals at 10/13 (Mansion Bet)
- 1pt AC Milan most corners taken at 13/8 (Sky Bet)
Score prediction: AC Milan 1-1 Atletico Madrid (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
Odds correct at 1600 BST (27/09/21)
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