Sydney Thunder and Melbourne Stars lock horns in the Big Bash knockout on Wednesday – Richard Mann provides his preview.
Cricket betting tips: Sydney Thunder v Melbourne Stars
2pts David Warner top match batsman at 5/1 (Sky Bet)
Sydney Thunder have home advantage when taking on Melbourne Stars in the Big Bash Knockout on Wednesday, 8:30am, UK time.
When these two sides met on this ground last month, the Thunder ran out 18-run victors, though Sam Billings’ match-winning innings of 72 would not have been had the Stars appealed for a clearcut run out early in the piece.
Maxwell key for the Stars
Since then, the Stars have gone on a roll, winning their last five to qualify via the back door, in the main thanks to that man Glenn Maxwell who has plundered scores of 20 not out, 58*, 90 and 76* in his last four innings.
With Ben Duckett having now departed for international duty, the Stars top order is a poor one and the men in green are heavily reliant on Maxwell in the middle order.
The guy is unbelievably good.
— KFC Big Bash League (@BBL) January 19, 2025
Here's all the highlights from Glenn Maxwell's 76* off 32 balls! #BBL14 pic.twitter.com/fevthZmuS7
Still, Maxwell has always been a man for the big occasion and more generally, when he’s hot, he tends to stay hot through the course of a tournament.
He’s very much feast or famine, as his blowout in last year’s IPL demonstrated, but 9/1 for Man of the Match honours on Wednesday does take the eye. If you’re in the Stars camp, that bet must be considered.
I’m not sure about playing the match market at this stage. I can certainly see why the Thunder are favourites on their home patch, and I do think this is a weaker Stars team with less depth than recent results would indicate. Maxwell has certainly been papering over the cracks.
But it’s worth remembering that the Thunder are missing some key men, most notably all rounder Daniel Sams who hasn’t recovered from that horror clash of heads with teammate Cameron Bancroft in Perth. Bancroft, too, remains on the sidelines.
Warner enjoying fine season
All that means veteran batsman and captain DAVID WARNER has been left to shoulder a welter burden at the top of the order, responsibility he has not shied away from.
In fact, Warner has responded with 346 runs – the second highest tally in the competition – at an average of 57.66, notching three fifties from nine matches.
What we have seen from Warner is a desire to bat time, often ticking along at somewhere close to a run a ball until later in the innings and the Power Surge, when then taking more risks with the possibility of the Thunder been bowled out cheaply averted.
Some might argue this is quite a selfish approach (Warner – selfish? Never) but to a large extent, it has worked. The Thunder are short on quality batting, plagued by injuries, and yet finished third in the league table and still have a shot at title glory.
There will be plenty of takers for Warner in the top Thunder batsman market at 5/2, and that’s perfectly fair, but I’m going to take double the price about WARNER TO BE TOP MATCH BATSMAN.
I remain of the view that the pitch at the Engie Stadium isn’t a particularly good one for batting, meaning the more patient approach Warner has taken early in his innings seems the best course of action.
Others around him will be expected to force the pace early and take more risks, while that Stars top order – with Tom Rogers and Sam Harper opening – doesn’t look capable of knocking the skin off a rice pudding.
Of course, Maxwell and Marcus Stoinis should prove much bigger threats, or indeed fellow Thunder man Billings, but batting at the top of the order will give Warner chance to gain a head start on those middle-order men.
At 5/1, I’ll be cheering Warner on.
And with those words, a cold shiver just ran through my body.
Posted at 1115 GMT on 20/01/25
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