Richard Mann previews the first Test of the summer as England take on New Zealand at Lord's, starting on Thursday morning.
Cricket tips: England v New Zealand first Test
2pts Nathan Smith top New Zealand first innings bowler at 4/1 (Sky Bet, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook)
2pts Tom Blundell top New Zealand first innings batsman at 8/1 (bet365)
England’s latest new dawn begins at Lord’s on Thursday as the opening Test of the English summer sees New Zealand return to the Home of Cricket for the first of three matches.
Head coach Brendon McCullum said last week that he remains ‘keen to finish the job he started’, and the seeds of Bazball were first sewn against the Kiwis back in 2022 when England won the series 3-0 in a breathless beginning to what has proved to be a most eventual ride.
There have been plenty of highs and lows since, but a gradual decline in England’s fortunes, culminating in last winter’s 4-1 Ashes drubbing Down Under, have seen the winds change in dramatic fashion and put the current regime firmly under the microscope. McCullum, and his boss, Rob Key are lucky to have remained in their positions.
McCullum also last week likened his side to a heavyweight boxer (not boozer), suggesting the need to use the jab more than just chasing the type of knockout blow that has summed up this batting group. Expect the aggressive outlook to remain, but perhaps a little more measured when conditions favour the bowlers.
That refined approach is likely to be tested this week, with the current forecast for St John’s Wood predicting plenty of rain, both in the build-up to the Test match and then through the course of it. If that does prove to be the case, we will see plenty of seam movement and tough batting conditions.
I do think that brings New Zealand right into the mix, and I’m not surprised to see their current price of 9/4 come under pressure. Their pace attack is made for Lord’s under clouds, led by the high-class Matt Henry and the emerging Will O’Rourke.
Henry has plenty of experience of England having dominated for Kent in the County Championship a few years back, and he was Man of the Match at Edgbaston in the 2021 Test match played between these two sides in Birmingham.
Smith the standout bet at Lord's
He looks sure to bowl well again and will prove very popular with punters, but the Kiwi seamer I’m most interested in this week is NATHAN SMITH, and I’ll be backing him accordingly.
Smith really does fit the bill of old-style English seamer, just as Tim Murtagh did when nipping and swinging the new ball and dismantling England with figures of 5-13 on this ground in 2019. The weather was much better that week as well.
A bright start to his Test career has seen Smith claim 18 wickets at an average of 27.27 in five matches, eight of them coming against Ireland last week when he got back into the red-ball the groove with 6-40 in the first innings.
It was typical Smith. Swinging and seaming the new ball and owning that off-stump in the way Michael Neser did against England last winter. In fact, there are clear similarities in styles there, and I think England’s top order could again be found wanting against this type of seamer in likely challenging conditions.
To add more meat to the bones, Smith has good experience of bowling in England following impressive stints at Worcestershire and Surrey.
Nathan Smith is having quite the afternoon
— Rothesay County Championship (@CountyChamp) April 14, 2024
He's just taken a triple wicket maiden, then found himself on a hat-trick at the start of the next over, and induced an edge from the hat-trick delivery!
Watch all eight deliveries: pic.twitter.com/Y3PrY9N8jo
At this stage, the advice is to side with Smith, who should be cherry ripe following his run-out in Belfast, to be TOP NEW ZELAND FIRST INNINGS BOWLER, but playing overs on his first-innings wickets once that market is priced up closer to game time will also be firmly on my radar.
With the case made for New Zealand to bowl well, there is obvious temptation to back the visitors at the current odds, though it’s worth pointing out that England have dominated the most recent meetings between the teams, wining two of the last three series and drawing the other.
Once the pitch flattens out, and that tends to be the case after the first couple of days at Lord’s, the home batting ought to come into its own, and for all the criticism that has rightly come their way in recent months, England haven’t yet lost a Test series at home under Stokes’ captaincy.
I do remain of the view that batting will be tough early in the match, though, and gave serious consideration to backing no century in the first innings at 10/11 with the Flutter firms, or even no century in the match, currently available at 5/1 with bet365.
However, this far out, without a good look at the pitch and with the potential for that forecast to improve, I’ll leave that particular project alone for now.
Red-hot Blundell to tame England again
Back to the team markets, and I reckon there is mileage in the 8/1 about TOM BLUNDELL to be TOP NEW ZEALAND FIRST INNINGS BATSMAN.
Blundell put together a brilliant 186 in Belfast last week, that after New Zealand’s top order had looked vulnerable and were initially reduced to 86-4. It was a back-to-form innings form the doughty wicket-keeper batsman that could well signal a hot streak like the one he enjoyed on this tour in 2022.
Blundell averaged 76.60 in that three-match series, with one hundred and three fifties, and as I’ve said many times on these pages previously, batting at number six in England against the Dukes ball can often prove the perfect spot.
For England, Josh Tongue remains my preference for top bowler honours, but the market has cottoned on to him now, while very little stands out in the batting stakes.
One senses this is a big week for the likes of McCullum and Key at the start of an even bigger series. Perhaps it will prove to be the knockout blow, after all.
Posted at 11:25 BST on 02/06/26
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