UFC Vegas 16: Main card and preliminaries free betting preview and tips

Recommended bets

2pts Jack Hermansson to win by either KO/TKO or Submission at 21/10

2pts Roman Dolidze to win by KO or Submission at 10/11

3pts Jimmy Flick to win by submission or decision at 4/6

Main card

• By Kieran Cobley

How the bookies have Jack Hermansson as underdog in this fight with Marvin Vettori is beyond me.

The Joker currently sits at 11/10 with the bookies, while Vettori is slightly favoured at 8/11.

Vettori is definitely a threat for Hermansson, with 11 finishes on his 15-4 record, but this is his first time preparing for a five-round fight, which is something Hermansson has much more experience of.

Hermansson’s aggressive wrestling game is going to be a problem for The Italian Dream, too.

The former Cage Warriors champion averages just over two takedowns per 15 minute minutes, and once on top of his opponent, he relentlessly looks for finishes, which his record beautifully illustrates with 11 KO/TKO wins, and a further six by submission.

For this fight, I expect Hermansson to come out aggressively, throwing strikes to disguise his entry into a takedown attempt. Once the fight hits the floor he will then look to grab a submission win or just throw damaging strikes to secure a TKO win.

At 21/10 odds, this looks to be the best value bet in the main event.

Roman Dolidze is a fighter that I firmly believe will be contesting for a spot in the light heavyweight rankings in a year or two.

The Georgian finishes fights, with his seven wins consisting of four knockouts and three submissions, and I see that string of finishes continuing in this fight.

His opponent, John Allan, hasn’t fought since last July, and looking at the record of opponents he has wins over, he doesn’t look to be a big threat to Dolidze.

For this fight, I expect Dolidze to come out very aggressively, looking for a knockout blow with his superior striking before following Allan to the ground to finish the fight.

At 10/11, this looks far better value than backing Dolidze outright at 8/13.

Prelims

• By Will Dean

The preliminaries for this card feature a host of fighters known for their grappling credentials, and this fight between Cody Durden and Jimmy Flick will be one of the most exciting to watch.

The Wrestler vs Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu grappler archetype is one that the UFC has built its success off since the beginning. While the days of an undersized Royce Gracie submitting fighters 40lbs heavier than him may be nearly 30 years in the past, the new era of BJJ grapplers continue to show the evolution of the art of ‘human chess’.

With 13 of his 15 wins coming via submission, Jimmy Flick has been on the UFC’s radar for some time. He was recently granted the opportunity to showcase his submission skills on Dana White’s Contender Series, where he faced a Junior Olympic bronze medallist in Wrestling. Despite those accolades, Flick controlled every second of the grappling exchanges, attempting seven submissions and ultimately winning via Arm Triangle in the third round.

Much to his enjoyment, Flick will face another life-long wrestler on Saturday night.

Cody Durden is a two-time state wrestling champion who will happily initiate grappling exchanges and follow The Brick to the mat. While he may initially spend time on top, he will be in constant danger of sweeps, reversals and submission attempts from Flick, who can create danger from seemingly neutralised positions.

Durden, like many wrestlers before him, is not so well equipped when he finds himself on his back. If Flick is successful in turning the tide of this fight and ending on top, then that could be checkmate.

While I do expect Flick to eventually get the tap out victory, Durden’s submission defence remains a bit of a mystery (aside from the single submission loss on his record). Due to this, I actually think the Double Chance market provides a smarter bet than relying solely on a submission.

Paying a 4/6 price tag on Flick to win by submission or decision covers what I think are the two most likely outcomes. For me, that is a steal.
Posted at 1255 GMT 03/12/20

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