Andrew Asquith, John Ingles and Tony McFadden tackle the big questions ahead of this weekend's action at Ascot and Haydock.
Jonbon will be a short price to win his 11th Grade 1 over fences in the Betfair Ascot Chase. Will he be remembered as a great chaser?
Andrew Asquith: Jonbon faces little competition at Ascot on Saturday and with a clear round you would fully expect him to record another top-level success moving up to a trip he seemingly wants nowadays. For me he has to be remembered as one of the great chasers of his generation, not only because of the array of Grade 1 wins he has to his name, but also the incredible consistency he’s shown throughout his career. Indeed, he is yet to finish out of the first two in 26 starts under Rules – he also won his sole start in points – and has met with defeat only seven times in that timespan. He is yet to record a win at the Cheltenham Festival, but it would be terribly unfair to crab him for that, and he still has the chance to make amends next month; he’s been a top-class chaser who is a credit to connections.
John Ingles: The alarm bells are ringing because that reminds me of a line from Timeform’s essay on Brigadier Gerard – ‘the adjective great has been so overused that it has virtually lost its meaning’. What can’t be disputed is that Jonbon has a terrific record – not just all those Grade 1 wins but never finishing out of the first two, either – so I don’t subscribe to the view that he’s any less of a chaser for not having a Cheltenham Festival win on his CV. When J. P. McManus bought him for a record sum many people said he’d never win back that amount in prize money, but he’s proved them wrong, hasn’t he?
Tony McFadden: Jonbon has traits associated with great chasers - he's tough, consistent, versatile - and has amassed an enviable tally of Grade 1 wins. However, a lack of meaningful competition in Britain has helped Jonbon rack up so many victories and, while he's shown a top-class level of form, his peak Timeform end-of-season rating of 172 is lower than you'd associate with a true great. For comparison, Altior was rated 180, Moscow Flyer was 184 and Sprinter Sacre 192. Jonbon's Grade 1 tally and rating is similar to that achieved by Un de Sceaux, though that one had a couple of Cheltenham Festival victories on his CV, something Jonbon famously lacks. He's been one of the best horses of his time - but not of any time.
Do you think Kabral du Mathan will stay well enough to win the Rendlesham Hurdle?
AA: Conditions are set to be quite testing at Haydock on Saturday and, while Kabral du Mathan won twice on soft ground as a novice, his best form has come in ground Timeform has described as good to soft. He certainly wasn’t stopping when streaking away with a handicap over 19 furlongs at this course in November, and he won the Relkeel over two and a half miles as he liked at Cheltenham last time, but that race lacked depth and it was his change of gear which proved the difference. Kabral du Mathan is out of a mare that won over an extended two miles and five furlongs, while his sire was a Group 1 winner who stayed a mile and a half, so there is some hope on pedigree. However, he’s an exuberant sort, who possess a lot of natural speed, and I’m not sure a slog over three miles is exactly what he wants.
JI: I think you’d have to be hopeful rather than confident given the keen hold he took in the Relkeel Hurdle last time, and now he’s going over further still under more testing conditions. There are some confirmed front runners in the line-up such as Henri The Second and Beauport who are proven soft-ground stayers and they’ll be keen to expose any lack of stamina on Kabral du Mathan’s part, so while he might be the best prospect in the race, it will certainly test his credentials for the Stayers’ Hurdle.
TM: Kabral du Mathan travels so sweetly and shows so much speed that it seems unlikely three miles will prove his optimum trip. That doesn't mean he won't prove too classy for his rivals at Haydock, but he looks a short price at around 4/7 considering there's the obvious stamina question mark and, as he's burdened with a penalty, comes out with only a narrow edge on Timeform's weight-adjusted ratings. Finding which one to take him on with doesn't look straightforward, though.
Can you give us a handicapper you're interested in this weekend?
AA: I put Joyeux Machin up for the Betfair Swinley Handicap Chase (15:00) at Ascot in my Weekend View column earlier in the week and I think he can prove himself well handicapped with a clear run. He went with plenty of exuberance with cheekpieces refitted in the Great Yorkshire Handicap Chase at Doncaster last month, and was jumping very well prior to his departure five from home. Joyeux Machin had all of his rivals on the stretch and, even though it was too far out to suggest he would have stayed on right to the line given the strong pace he helped force, he looked on excellent terms with himself. He’s caught the eye on more than one occasion for his top yard and he definitely has the ability to win a race of this nature from his current mark, hopefully under a more economical ride with Jipcot in the field.
JI: There are plenty of veterans in the Swinley Handicap Chase at Ascot (15:00) including Threeunderthrufive who has been first and second in the last two renewals, but he ran poorly last time and Jipcot looks the most interesting as one of only a few with youth on his side. He’s up in grade here but jumped well from the front when winning by ten lengths at Leicester last time and he’s still unexposed over fences and not handicapped out of things despite an 8 lb rise in the weights.
TM: Mc Loven is on a lengthy losing run that stretches back to July 2024, but he has been offered some respite from the assessor and drops in grade in the five-furlong handicap (14:00) at Lingfield. He was only fifth of six in a six-furlong handicap at Lingfield on his latest outing, but he shaped better than that result would suggest having set a strong pace over a trip that probably stretches him. He'll be more comfortable back at five furlongs and could take some pegging back on his first start in 0-70 company. He's now 5 lb lower in the weights than when a good third behind a couple of subsequent winners in a much better-quality event over this course and distance in November.
Is there anything running this weekend who you could see making a big impact at a spring festival?
AA: French Ship goes in the Rendlesham (14:05) at Haydock, which will be his first start at three miles, and you could see him going well in something like the Coral Cup at the Cheltenham Festival. I was very keen on him for the Lanzarote at Kempton last month, but he failed to fire, losing his place on the home turn and unable to recover. He’d been impressive winning two handicaps prior to that, though, including one over the Coral Cup course and distance, and a return to a left-handed, more galloping track should be beneficial for him. Provided he doesn’t ruin his mark on Saturday, he could be one to look out for at Cheltenham.
JI: Reckless Spending was disappointing on his first try over three miles at Cheltenham but it’s hard to believe that was down to a lack of stamina (dam a half-sister to Irish Grand National winner Rogue Angel) and he put that behind him when winning impressively back over shorter on soft ground at Kempton last time. Nicky Henderson is giving him another go over three miles, at Haydock (14:40), and if he can build on his latest run and prove himself over this trip, then his odds for the Albert Bartlett at Cheltenham are entitled to shorten.
TM: Kawaboomga is a fascinating runner in the Red Mills Hurdle (13:20) at Gowran Park. He's been off the track since winning a maiden hurdle at Fairyhouse last year that could hardly have worked out any better. He cosily quickened past subsequent Supreme Novices' Hurdle runner-up William Munny, who was a long way clear of the remainder. Third-place Koktail Divin wasn't at his best that day but went on to won a Leopardstown maiden and finish fourth in a Grade 1 at Aintree, while Zanoosh, who was a distant fourth at Fairyhouse, has racked up a hat-trick this season and won in listed company last time. Kawaboomga doesn't hold an entry in the Champion Hurdle at Cheltenham but, in a weak division, it would be little surprise were he good enough to make his presence felt at Aintree or Punchestown.
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