Matt Brocklebank returns to the Value Bet hot-seat and marks your card for the feature action at Ascot and Haydock this Saturday.
Value Bet tips: Saturday September 3
1pt win Jacovec Cavern in 2.20 Haydock at 18/1 (bet365)
1pt win Going Gone in 2.55 Haydock at 16/1 (General)
1pt win Shining Blue in 3.10 Ascot at 12/1 (Ladbrokes, Coral)
1pt win Brad The Brief in 3.30 Haydock at 14/1 (General)
Already advised:
Keep it Brief in G1 feature
Nine races on the main ITV channel as we lurch back from famine to feast this Saturday afternoon. Rain is on the horizon at Haydock and, while the forecast remains vague, anything that falls will clearly suit long-time Betfair Sprint Cup fancy BRAD THE BRIEF, who looks worth backing again at the current odds.
Below only Naval Crown based on official BHA ratings, the son of Dutch Art has missed the bulk of the 2022 season largely on account of fast ground – the Sky Bet City Of York Stakes won by Kinross the latest engagement he skipped due to underfoot conditions – but new trainer Hugo Palmer has surely had his eye on this race all year anyway.
Brad The Brief won a handicap here two summers ago and again struck gold over this course and distance when marking himself down as an improved model this time around on his seasonal return back in May.
Consistency was a real issue for the talented gelding during his time under Tom Dascombe so seeing him follow up the comeback win with a cosy half-length defeat of Mooniesta in a Group Two at the Curragh later that month must have been especially pleasing for connections. The runner-up going on to be fourth behind Aussie star Nature Strip in the King’s Stand and a short-head second in another Group Two back at the Curragh no doubt also providing a bit of a boost.
It looks really decent form and strongly suggests Brad The Brief has got it all together as a five-year-old, having always shown sparks but just looked a little raw in the past.
As for the freshness angle, that would appear a positive if anything as he’s now won twice after layoffs of 190 days-plus, as well as on debut as a juvenile, and being able to handle this track is clearly a massive plus as loads of recent Sprint Cup victors have brought winning/quality course form with them into the race.
Palmer landing Sunday’s big sprint in Germany with Dubawi Legend (who turns out again quickly here) shouldn’t be underestimated either as it’s not like the trainer has been revelling in high-profile success on a regular basis since his well-documented move up north. Spirits in the camp should certainly be high, which may explain why they’ve declared all three this weekend (Flaming Rib completes the trio from Manor House).
Other than the weather forecast proving wide of the mark, the only real negative I see for the selection is that, in stall 15, he’s drawn away from the majority of the early pace which looks likely to be provided by Art Power in one and Go Bears Go in six.
That’s not enough in itself to put me off at the prices, though, and last year’s winner Emaraaty Ana is only a couple of stalls away – with the promising Harry Three between that pair – so there’s no shortage of quality in the higher numbers should things pan out fairly evenly, with the stalls in the centre of the track.
Cavern holds enormous potential
Before the main event in the north west, don’t miss Mick Channon’s JACOVEC CAVERN in the Get Daily Rewards With Betfair Handicap after his runaway Ffos Las win last Friday.
He’s gone up 9lb to a mark of 79 and jockey George Bass’s claim is down from 5lb to 3lb having brought up 50 winners, but we could still be dealing with a seriously well-handicapped horse here.
Unraced at two and already gelded before appearing on a racecourse, he caught the eye in all three qualifying runs through June and July this year, getting within three-quarters of a length of the now 84-rated Chillingham in a 10-furlong Pontefract maiden second time out, and it’s no great surprise the son of Sixties Icon looks set to thrive over middle-distance/staying trips as a handicapper.
The Ffos Las effort – which is worth watching in its entirety (see below) if the jump in class here is concerning anyone as he was in cruise-control the whole way – was a first go at 12 furlongs for the horse and he now goes up another couple which can only be a good thing (full brother to hurdles winner Greystoke).
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He’s very lightly raced after six lifetime starts and is being overlooked in the market for some reason.
The other one who appeals in the same race is first-time blinkered Speycaster, who beat Deauville Legend off level weights last November. He’s yet to really deliver on that promise this term but shaped well in a good race over course and distance when last seen in early-July and perhaps the headgear will eke out even more.
He’s not being missed in the market, though, around 8/1 so I won’t be going double-handed.
Going for gold
The Betfair Exchange Old Borough Cup Handicap was blown wide open after the defection of Soulcombe and GOING GONE looks to have a particularly solid chance in his absence.
I really liked the way he toughed it out from a prominent pitch to beat Mascat, Solent Gateway and Parachute at Epsom at the start of the season, since when he’s been a bit unlucky not to add to his tally.
The 50/1 fourth behind subsequent Lonsdale Cup second Coltrane in the Ascot Stakes was clearly a mammoth effort, and he was very close to matching that level of form when second to Themaxwecan at the Shergar Cup meeting last time out, doing best of those held up in a slowly-run race.
He’s back up a pound to a mark of 96 but still has further improvement in him as a four-year-old stayer and he’s one who will handle just about anything the weather has in store. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Pat Cosgrave revert to more prominent tactics around here too, particularly from a handy draw in stall six. Ideally, he’ll be able to track Golden Flame down on his inside.
Trainer Jim Boyle could be in hotter form, it must be said, and he isn’t particularly well known for his runners in these parts either but has had just the one Haydock runner in the past five seasons (Downsman) which happened to win, incidentally.
The closest I came to a bet at Kempton was a tentative dart at outsider Tasman Bay in the Unibet September Stakes. He might just enjoy getting back on the all-weather (1-1) after appearing to hate the rattling-quick ground at Ascot and Newbury in his two starts this year.
He’s clearly lost his way a bit as a four-year-old, though, and will need to show at least a touch more spark before being considered a genuine betting proposition.
Blue the best bet at Ascot
It’s over to Ascot for another bet in the National Racehorse Weekend Handicap over seven furlongs. This event contains a bunch of quality course specialists, but preference is for the totally unexposed SHINING BLUE, who got back on track with a fair effort in a first-time hood at York’s Ebor Festival last time.
That smacked of a recovery mission after he’d blotted his copybook with a total no-show at Goodwood, but he was drawn widest of all and chucked into the deep end there tackling the Golden Mile on just his second handicap outing, so he was wisely handled with consideration once his chance had gone.
York didn’t really pan out ideally either as he again had to race wide into the turn from stall 13 and he was a little too keen under Frankie Dettori, who also looked after the horse after he was a bit short of room inside the final furlong.
Dropping back to seven furlongs – the trip at which he made a striking debut in a Leicester maiden in May – should really suit based on that latest showing and he’s been eased to a mark of 99 which is just 5lb higher than when dotting up at Newcastle in June.
This track tends to suit all-weather winners and the son of Exceed And Excel looks to have a significantly kinder draw (16) here with the likes of Space Tracker (17) and Silent Film (13) expected to set things up perfectly for those drawn closest to the stands’ side rail.
The 12/1 on offer should be snapped up, while Godolphin seem likely to win the three-year-old Lavazza Stakes too with Shining Blue’s trainer Saeed bin Suroor running hat-trick seeking Night Of Luxury and Charlie Appleby responsible for four at the time of writing, including market leader First Ruler.
The latter has Ryan Moore for company in an intriguing side note, but there’s no obvious bet to be had.
Published at 1600 BST on 02/09/22
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