Graham Cunningham sets the scene for two days of Classic action at the Betfred Derby Festival at Epsom this Friday and Saturday.
Change in the air as Derby bids to dispel desolate tag
The first step towards change is awareness.
The second step is acceptance.
And the third – if you need to rejuvenate an ailing Betfred Derby Festival – is to get on the blower to (*checks notes) Frank Warren and Wayne Lineker.
Falling crowds and the fact that Royal Ascot has raced clear in the glamour stakes make it easy to crack wise about Epsom’s current challenges and the RP said what many were thinking last week with a feature asking if the occasion is ‘Destined to be Desolate.’
Time will tell whether Frank and Wayne have the silver bullets and shame on anyone who suggests their specialist knowledge of punch-ups and piss-ups might come in handy.
But ambitious Epsom boss Jim Allen can’t be accused of sitting on his hands to preside over managed decline.
Moves to improve the lure of the Downs for punters, party people, music lovers and the local community are laudable, as is a welcome sense of realism surrounding the Derby’s place in the grand scheme of things.
Nostalgia is a poor currency for promoting major races to Gen Z and Epsom seem to grasp that more than those who pine for the old days and cling to that old Tesio quote about the thoroughbred existing because its selection has depended on a piece of wood.
Like it or not, that ancient Derby winning post is just one important signpost on an ever-expanding global racing highway nowadays, but the questions Epsom asks of Classic hopefuls have barely changed since the days when half of London used to head south.
Flaws in stamina, speed, balance and temperament will see many of this year’s crop on bended knee as the winner hits the line on Saturday – and finalising a short list involves an element of ruthlessness that can cut both ways.
Cross on the rise
So here goes.
Heavy topped Newmarket Listed winner ANCIENT EGYPT could find Epsom’s severe gradients problematic, while fellow Frankel colt (and brother to Lambourn) ACTION will get a good gander at the punters on the upper level of the double decker buses if he carries his head as high as when chasing ITEM home in the Dante.
Item is another son of the Big F and is harder to crab, though he needed four or five cracks from Colin Keane to seal the deal at York, while MALTESE CROSS (by Haggas’s favourite sire Sea The Stars) had to knuckle down to fend off BAY OF BRILLIANCE at Lingfield but has an attractive combination of strength and courage that suggests he can record a clear career best on the big day.
Blakey boxing clever for a Cinderella story
Epsom fairytales are rare in this superpower era, but how about a Derby winner named after a heavyweight champ known as the Cinderella Man and bought for a relative song by a popular telly pundit and former pugilist?
Kevin Blake delivered a body blow to the bookies when nailing the first three at 11/1, 33s and 50s on ITV last year and he’s going for the knockout twelve months on as the rugged JAMES J BRADDOCK bids to prove his last-gasp Leopardstown defeat of winter Derby fav PIERRE BONNARD was no flash in the pan.
Aidan says Pierre “has improved a lot” and his firm belief that “you’ll see a different horse the next day” is significant given the way that Auguste Rodin and City Of Troy left lamentable Guineas efforts behind once the Derby gates crashed open in 2023 and 2024.
Pierre seemed to think twice before nosing ahead briefly close home in the Derby Trial, so much so that I thought he might turn up at Epsom in a pair of cheekpieces.
That said, his prospects of shading round three with his Leopardstown conqueror look bright, but the bold Blakey is living the dream as his bloodstock empire blossoms and a Derby win for JJB would rival the original Cinderella Man’s fairytale rise in its own way.
Benvenuto a welcome presence
But the fourth son of Frankel in this year’s Derby looks the one to focus on now that fears of deep ground on Saturday are abating.
Named after the flamboyant Italian sculptor who cut a controversial swathe through 16th century society, BENVENUTO CELLINI is bred to be a G1 colt and has looked just that other than when getting stuck in cloying Donny mud when favourite for the William Hill Futurity last October.
The way a Classic colt moves isn’t a perfect way of assessing what sort of ground will suit, but this one showed a striking top-of-the-ground action when bolting up in a G2 at Leopardstown last September and that extravagant, raking stride was seen to dynamic effect again on his reappearance in the Chester Vase last month.
Punters wanted to be on at any price that day, crushing BC into 2/9 from half that price, and the flashy chestnut impressed on numerous levels as he swept well clear at the end of a truly run race.
Timeform awarded Benvenuto Cellini a rating of 117p in describing him as “every inch a potential Derby winner.”
The way he relaxed in a truly run race under Ryan Moore was highly encouraging and his remarkable stride length – averaging over 26 feet – proved he is much more of a stayer than his Breeders’ Cup-winning dam Newspaperofrecord.
Casting a long shadow
It all adds up to a persuasive Derby profile in any year, let alone one that has seen several strong Epsom hopes plotting different courses.
Benvenuto Cellini doesn’t have to face his G1-winning stablemates Constitution River or Hawk Mountain on Saturday, while hopes of a first British Derby success since 2022 took a knock when impressive Sandown Trial winner Raaheeb suffered a setback.
The absence of that trio shouldn’t be underestimated, nor should Aidan’s ability to shape the early part of the race for his two main hopes thanks to Christmas Day and Action.
Culture vultures won’t need reminding that Bonnard was a famous French painter, but the famously arrogant chiseller Cellini felt his was the higher calling and asserted that “the difference between a painting and a sculpture is the difference between a shadow and the thing which casts it.”
And now we spin the Epsom wheel for two high achieving students from Ballydoyle’s artistic wing.
Pierre’s posse would welcome a deluge, while Benvenuto’s brigade want rain to stay away.
Whatever the weather, Aidan and the Ballydoyle lads cast a long shadow over the Derby again.
And the white-faced chestnut with the flaxen mane might leave them all in the shade if he glides round Epsom in the way that elegant stride suggests he ought to.
Thunder in the forecast even if rain stays away
Aidan still needs two more Oaks wins to match Robert Robson – who notched 13 victories between 1802 and 1825 – but current prices make him about evens to make it a round dozen via a three-strong team made up of AMELIA EARHART, CAMEO and SUGAR ISLAND on Friday.
Amelia has taken flight after taking five runs to break her duck, and she’s taking the Minnie Hauk route after a decisive Chester win, but she doesn’t sport the rare combo of blinkers and a hood for no reason and even minor kinks can be problematic at Classic level.
Cameo took a sizeable step forward moving up in distance in the Lingfield trial and could be coming good at the right time, but Joseph saddles the most intriguing improver in the shape of THUNDERING ON.
Bred in the purple by Frankel out of a Pretty Polly winner, this filly isn’t dissimilar to Benvenuto Cellini with her chestnut coat and broad white blaze.
She hasn’t achieved as much yet – finishing behind Cameo and Sugar Island in two runs last year - but she took a big step forward when quickening out of a tight pocket to land Navan’s G3 Salsabil Stakes in style at the back end of April.
As ever, time will tell whether this is a vintage Oaks.
None of the nine runners has achieved a Timeform rating within 7lb of an average winner.
Improvement is the key, then, and Thundering On – firmly on the up and set to progress again over a mile and a half – has the look of a filly with very solid each way credentials.
Questions abound as Scott’s high Roller heads to the Downs
Questions, questions over this year’s Coolmore Coronation Cup.
Moving the weekend’s older horse showpiece to beef up the Saturday card – along with lobbing a cheeky £1m in the pot – is a solid call on all fronts.
But will we see the last year’s turf world champ CALANDAGAN if rain keeps falling?
Can the tricky yet high-class JAN BRUEGHEL become the first back-to-back winner since former Ballydoyle star St Nicholas Abbey back in 2012?
How fast is the exciting CONVERGENT progressing and just how awkward will the presentation be if his billionaire owner Maurice Regan – a serious legal thorn in John Magnier’s side of late – is on hand to lift the trophy?
Can LAMBOURN become the first Derby winner to land the Coro Cup since Mill Reef and Roberto did the double in ’72 and ’73.
And should we give a little love to the hardy BAY CITY ROLLER at a big price?
George Scott’s colt was beaten in five G2s last year, but he bolted up on testing ground in a German G1 in November and has progressed again this spring, giving Lambourn 5lb and a scare in Chester’s Huxley Stakes then being last off the bridle when chasing home Alamqam in the Tattersalls Gold Cup at the Curragh.
Granted, Timeform feel he has 11lb to find with Calandagan and 6lb to find with Jan B if he’s still the horse who beat the Graffard gelding in a compelling tactical contest on this day last year.
But Calandagan isn’t a certain runner and Jan Brueghel – who nearly died after choking on a piece of hay last year – still has the odd kink to go with his undoubted ability.
Bay City Roller’s form stacks up well with Lambourn and Convergent and a little more progress, which is possible, will make this battle hardened little pro a live place chance with or without a certain French ace.
More to read on the Betfred Derby
- Horse-by-horse guide and Nic Doggett verdict
- Betfred Derby preview Podcast
- Weekend View from Andrew Asquith
- Stamina is key according to Simon Holt
- What do pedigrees say and who will stay best?
- Timeform's Derby greats down the years
- Frankel holds the key to Epsom glory
- Egypt the each-way play according to Alex Hammond
- The "most thrilling 90 minutes in horseracing"?
- Aidan O'Brien's unshakeable faith in Pierre Bonnard
- Final field of 14 and Derby draw details
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