Value Bet tips: Saturday, October 30
1pt win Lord Baddesley in 1.35 Ascot at 16/1 (General)
1pt win Megan in 2.10 Ascot at 10/1 (bet365)
1pt win One For Rosie in 2.45 Ascot at 13/2 (General)
1pt win Sojourn in 3.20 Ascot at 10/1 (General)
As tempting as it may be to take on Cyrname in Saturday’s bet365 Charlie Hall Chase, the horse I was most keen on at the start of the week – Shan Blue – has tightened up a bit in the market and looks most likely to go off second-favourite despite Friday support for the race-fit Fusil Raffles.
Neither is the second highest-rated in here, however, that mantle being held by Clondaw Castle, while Top Ville Ben comes out even more favourably at the weights if his official mark (156) is to be believed.
But Shan Blue has a heck of a lot of potential still, goes particularly well when fresh and evidently loves it around here having won his first two novice chases at Wetherby 12 months ago (including on this card when slamming Snow Leopardess, I K Brunel and Hold The Note by 16 lengths and more).
I can watch and admire at current prices, and the same goes for the bet365 Hurdle, in which most of the key players are all coming back from their summer holidays. One who is at least fighting fit is the Paul Webber-trained Indefatigable, who won a Pontefract maiden recently and gets a 7lb allowance from the geldings – she’s getting the thick end of a stone from the penalised Paisley Park.
Indefatigable is the most appealing but she’s another whose initial price vanished quite quickly so I’ll focus on the good stuff from Ascot where I think there are a few who are being underestimated.
Good Lord for in-form Gordon
The first up is LORD BADDESLEY in the opening Ascot Underwriting Novices’ Handicap Chase.
The obvious thing to point out is that we could be looking at a couple of real rising stars here in Sam Barton and Nassalam, while I’ve been a fan of Solo since he arrived at Paul Nicholls’ and it wouldn’t be a great shock if his run of frustrations over hurdles suddenly became a thing of the past now switched to fences following a breathing operation.
Kid Commando is another respected rival if translating the best of his hurdles form. However, there’s only one in this field with a run under their belt already this season and Lord Baddesley performed miles better than the bare form when resuming at Warwick 30 days ago.
A sizeable son of Doyen, he’s always looked a chaser in the making and it was pleasing to see him jump so well first time out despite being 5lb out of the handicap last month.
After travelling far too keenly in the early stages, he produced a massive leap four out to put himself right on the coattails of the leader, Friend Or Foe, and despite being outpaced by speedier rivals from that stage on, I can forgive him the relatively limp finishing effort given how much energy he’d wasted on the first circuit.
Tom Cannon was very sensible in looking after the horse in fourth, well adrift of the principals as Beyond The Clouds, Any News and Friend Or Foe fought out a close finish, and he's able to run off his true mark here.
Lord Baddesley had previously bolted up from a couple of previous winners (fourth and fifth have landed three races between them since) in a novices’ hurdle at Newbury at the end of March on his final run last term, and I like the slight step up in trip here, coupled with the addition of a hood which will hopefully cool him down a little pre-race.
If he’s a bit more settled on this occasion, the finishing kick should be far more potent, something we witnessed at Cheltenham last week from stablemate Annual Invictus who stepped forward quite considerably from his first outing of the season, and I think he could do some damage against this lot.
Edmunds filly not to be missed
The first selection won’t mind the forecast rain and I’m quite hopeful German Flat recruit MEGAN won’t mind it either as she looks quite well placed to take advantage of a lowly mark in the Listed Bateaux London Handicap Hurdle.
She made an immediate impression for trainer Stuart Edmunds when dotting up in an admittedly poor race at Leicester last November (soft ground), and although she’s since disappointed favourite-backers at Aintree and failed to finish at Doncaster in January and on her Chepstow reappearance earlier this month, she’s still really unexposed.
Not only that, she was clearly going to play a major role in the finish (traded at evens on Betfair Exchange) before her tumble three from home at Chepstow and the assessor has left her alone to compete off 120 again.
She’s got bags of pace from her time on the level and she was making up ground rapidly despite only a few little niggles from Ciaran Gethings in the saddle, prior to the fall.
If Boothill turns out to be a class above then you’ve got to hold your hands up and the current 3/1 about him probably isn’t a bad price at all, but the 10s (bet365, 8/1 generally) about Megan looks even more appealing given we’ve seen her in action far more recently than Harry Fry’s horse, who has clearly suffered from injuries.
All Rosie in Bailey garden
The last three winners of the Byrne Group Handicap Chase have all been held up towards the rear in the early stages but I think it could pay to focus on two who are likely to be on the sharp end from the outset this weekend.
Editeur Du Gite has an attractive profile having signed off with back-to-back wins at Newbury and in Aintree’s Red Rum at the National meeting, but I’m far from convinced he should be quite so much shorter than fellow front-runner ONE FOR ROSIE, who is also chasing a hat-trick after novice victories at Leicester and Carlisle in February and March when last seen.
Those wins came following a spell out of action and a stable switch from Nigel Twiston-Davies to Kim Bailey, and he clearly improved on anything he’d shown over hurdles, jumping bolding from the off and earning a 4lb rise to 149 on the back of the Carlisle win.
The grey obviously loves soft ground and while he’s probably going to want at least two and a half miles before long, he could have a lot of these on the back foot from a fair way out if jumping as accurately and aggresively as he can.
The first time out angle isn’t a negative either with One For Rosie, his record after a layoff of 50 days or more (including his racecourse debut) reading 11161.
More rain the better for London Gold Cup fancy
Bailey could easily be in business in the Bateaux London Gold Cup Handicap Chase as well given Vinndication is often pretty deadly first time back and he likes Ascot to boot, but with the ground likely to be quite testing at this point in the afternoon I’ll lean on the stamina-laden SOJOURN at double-figure odds.
He’s another who goes really well fresh – his trainer Anthony Honeyball stated as much after he won by 15 lengths first time up last season at Carlisle – and the yard looks in good nick with a couple of winners last week.
Sojourn went on to be second behind Sam’s Adventure, who himself went on to win the Eider Chase off a 6lb higher mark, in the Tommy Whittle last December, and while pulled-up in the Grand National Trial back at Haydock on his only subsequent outing, they’ve since had his wind done and he looks well worth another chance resuming off the same mark (142) here.
Published at 1500 BST on 29/10/21